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Can Baker Mayfield lift Carolina Panthers into playoff contention? NFL sources believe so.


poundaway
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7 hours ago, poundaway said:

I think the "NFL sources" and others outside the huddle are more optimistic than many huddlers in general. 

"sources" vs Vegas (the guys that do it for money)

 

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/win-totals/

 

6.5

 

We would have to blow their odds out of the water to make the playoffs. 

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7 hours ago, hepcat said:

If Baker Mayfield leads the Panthers to the playoffs it means Christian McCaffrey stayed healthy the whole season and we all know that ain’t happening again. Panthers will probably be 7-10

I have not read the thread yet, hepcat, but I think we have a better RB room than we did last year.  That said, without CMC, this team has been awful.

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10 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

I have not read the thread yet, hepcat, but I think we have a better RB room than we did last year.  That said, without CMC, this team has been awful.

If CMC goes down, from a single player standpoint Ameer Abdullah was a much better sub than Foreman would/will be. If Chuba learned how to catch during the offseason then that helps as well.

Edited by KSpan
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41 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

"sources" vs Vegas (the guys that do it for money)

 

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/win-totals/

 

6.5

 

We would have to blow their odds out of the water to make the playoffs. 

Vegas isn’t making a prediction, they’re setting a line based on average fans’ expectations. Big difference. 

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9 minutes ago, KSpan said:

If CMC goes down, from a single player standpoint Ameer Abdullah was a much better sub than Foreman would/will be. If Chuba learned how to catch during the offseason then that helps as well.

Did you know that last season, Chuba led the league (25% of his carries) in carries that lost or failed to gain yards?

Some or most of that is on the OL, but CMC hardly ever loses yardage

Edited by MHS831
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1 hour ago, kungfoodude said:

Yeah but Baker playing at a high level may not lead to winning. Do you remember recent Superb Owl champion Matt Stafford's entire career with the Lions? Do you remember Matt Ryan's time with Atlanta? Deshaun Watson with Houston?

You can be a really good or even elite QB and not be able to overcome shitty coaching or just a poo situation. 

Hell, look at our own Cam Newton.

 

Both Cam and Ryan went to the Super Bowl. They didn't get it done. You can argue coaching was the main reason why if you want, but in my opinion, it was more about other things, including QB play, personnel, and bad calls (in our case). As for Stafford, his lack of success was more about personnel than anything else. He played with suspect RBs and maybe even suspect receivers for the lion's share of his time in Motown.

Now I'm not saying that coaching doesn't play a part in success, but a lack of quality personnel will kill any team and stymie the QB to a degree. But I think we have enough here for a veteran QB that's worth his salt to get us over .500 in my opinion. 

I guess, what I'm saying is that true franchise QBs don't let coaches stop them from elevating the team (unless they're Aaron Rodgers coached by Matt LeFleur in the NFC championship). If the team is good, they'll put them in contention (provided the QB has the practical playing experience to do so). If a team is poo, then even a franchise QB will still look like lipstick on a pig. 

I don't think we're a pig.

 

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The optimist in me says yes he can elevate us into the playoffs.  He’s a better QB and we have a better OL and a better RB room so whenCMC takes his annual sabbatical after week 4 we will still be ok there.  
 

The pessimist in me says he won’t because Baker can’t catch the ball or stop the run. Hope I’m wrong though. 

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10 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

Did you know that last season, Chuba led the league (25% of his carries) in carries that lost or failed to gain yards?

Some or most of that is on the OL, but CMC hardly ever loses yardage

I can believe that. Abdullah looked quite solid in his snaps and while I get the general idea behind keeping young RBs, I would have liked to see him stay around.

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19 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

2 things:

Nowhere in my post did I say it was a prediction.  Those are odds

 

And vegas isnt setting those odds based on "average fans expectations.  Sweet christ dude

Well no he's right. Vegas doesn't base their odds on a a predictive model. It's based on finding a line point that builds even betting on both sides of the line. If the bets start to the build heavily on one side or the other the line shifts to balance them out. So like, if the public feels like the odd line is low for the Panthers and bets start to build heavily on the over the line will shift to a higher "wins" odd. If the line stays the same then it represents a relatively balanced betting line and thusly represents "average fan expectations".

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38 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

2 things:

Nowhere in my post did I say it was a prediction.  Those are odds

 

And vegas isnt setting those odds based on "average fans expectations.  Sweet christ dude

You compared it to “sources” predictions, so you implied it. And they set the line based on how they expect fans to bet, which they do based on their own expectations. 

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9 hours ago, hepcat said:

If Baker Mayfield leads the Panthers to the playoffs it means Christian McCaffrey stayed healthy the whole season and we all know that ain’t happening again. Panthers will probably be 7-10

Regardless I have 8-9 at best and another year of the clown show that is Matt Rhule. 

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