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Official 2023 QB Watch

saX man

By saX man,
in 2025 NFL Draft

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ForJimmy Grand Master

ForJimmy

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, saX man said:

My revised weekly thoughts:

Tier 1 - Top Prospects (High R1)

A. Bryce Young

B. CJ Stroud

Tier 2A - High Risk & Reward (Really hard to order, Mid R1 to R3)

  • Hendon Hooker - There comes a point where you do have to consider what he's doing, even with those TEN wideouts and lack of NFL scheming. Age 😕 25 y/0 rookie
  • Will Levis - his arm is elite, but his abilities seem to disappear in games whether it be coaching (or is it him?) Hard to tell, still waiting to really see IT with this kid.  Problem is he's going to be 24 soon
  • Michael Penix Jr. - Teetering between 2A/B for me.  Big upside, the second half of season will make or break him on scout radars.  Really like everything about him, has the downfield aggressive mentality, problem is WAS's line is ridiculous so want to see how he does against better schools. Oregon game will be big.  Nix v. Penix.

Tier 2B - Medium Risk/How really high is the the ceiling? (R3-5)

  • Tanner McKee - Measures out, looks the part, acts the part..but in games? Davis Mills+
  • Grayson McCall - Like McKee, with everything laid out--stats, measurables, it seems he would be a commodity, but the lack of buzz is telling me scouts don't really view him super highly, likely for his fair accuracy & avg/slightly above avg arm combo

Tier 3 - Developmental/Not there yet

  • Cam Ward - Love him, but he needs to stay in school.
  • Anthony Richardson - Talent is there, playmaking is there, can he progress enough or does he stay in school? 

Check out Max Duggan and let me know what you think.  @Icegeposted some good stuff.

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CmC2k Mentor

CmC2k

Posted
Posted

Young has a special ability to move around and escape a crowed pocket and make a throw that breaks the back of a defense. Very much like how Mahomes is able to escape the pocket and just always seems to find an open man down field on 3rd down. Young has that same ability.

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Icege Grand Master

Icege

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Icege said:

Some Max Duggan highlights...

vs. Oklahoma

I'll try and go through the other games I've watched vs Kansas State and Oklahoma State to grab some other highlights.

 

Another flaw that I noticed while pulling these that Duggan does have the occasional "Who the Hell were you throwing it to? A fuging giant?" moments.

@ForJimmy

Just saw that I butchered the links/timestamps, so I'm just gonna put the game here and put the timestamps below:

  • Beautiful back shoulder TD (5:18)
  • Gotta go fast (26:00)
  • Great ball placement to convert on 3rd (47:25)
  • That fake pitch tho (1:32:55)
  • Got down too early, but clearly has a second gear that he can hit (1:46:50)
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Untouchable Collaborator

Untouchable

Posted
Posted

Had an up close look at Stroud this past weekend and while he did have a beauty of a throw to ice the game that might have been his only "NFL throw".  At least for me, it's way too hard to get a good read on him.  OSU's scheme had easy reads and guys wide open all game and their OL overmatched Penn State.  They also completely avoided PSU's stud corner the entire game basically only playing on half the field.

Right now I don't see a QB on the level of a Lawrence or Murray.  I might take the chance on Young but I'd be more happy grabbing Anderson and stacking the rest of the roster.  Maybe spending a day 2 pick on Richardson and developing him.

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saX man Mentor

saX man

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10 hours ago, *FreeFua* said:

I just don’t see an NFL type QB when I watch Duggan. But I’m not here to rain on y’alls Duggan parade so carry on

Same.  Finally took a minute to check him out since people are chattering about--his play makes the field seem really big.  For me it seems to be a combination of choppy footwork and his throwing mechanics.  And on top of it, overall, you're not getting any major upside/a high ceiling from him.  The ball doesn't travel with consistent velocity which seems to result in mid-range accuracy issues.  For a guy without any major upside, he still has a lot to work on.  The team is rolling, but he's no more than a mid-late rounder from at least what I saw.  He's not cracking the top-8ish in QBs therefore will remain off ze radar.

 

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Jay Roosevelt Grand Master

Jay Roosevelt

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My take on the Bryce Young size debate...

If you think his size will affect his ability to play QB at a high level then you pass on him.

If your concern is that he's too small to stay healthy in the NFL... well, you just can't draft scared and I think his skills easily negate any concerns over his size.

Thing is... he's going to add weight/bulk once he starts training for the draft. He can get up to 210 at least, possibly up to 215. Now, he can't grow taller of course, but if he were 6'1 and 210 you'd have FAR fewer people worried about his size. He can add the weight.

My question is this: is 3 inches of height really the difference in this guy being a sucessful NFL QB or not? Who actually believes that?

Don't overthink it. Don't nitpick. Don't look past what's standing right in front of you.

Bryce Young is the best QB in this draft. If we're in a position to do so, we NEED to take him.

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Icege Grand Master

Icege

Posted
Posted

1. Bryce Young (Alabama)
2. Will Levis (Kentucky)
3. CJ Stroud (Ohio State)
4. Anthony Richardson (Florida)
5. Max Duggan (TCU)
6. Grayson McCall  (Coastal Carolina)
7. Hendon Hooker (Tennessee)
8. KJ Jefferson (Arkansas)
9. Bo Nix (Oregon)
10. Tyler Van Dyke (Miami)
11. Michael Penix Jr (Washington)
12. Jaren Hall (BYU)
13. Dorian Thompson-Robinson (UCLA)
14. Tanner McKee (Stanford)
15. Cameron Rising (Utah)

I've got to watch games still for the guys outside of the top 7, but I'll also say that if Matt Corral were in this draft class based on his 2021 game film alone I'd have him as QB1 on that list. 

For those interested in games watched so far:
Bryce Young vs. Texas, Tennessee, LSU, Ole Miss, Ole Miss 2021
CJ Stroud vs. Notre Dame, Iowa, Penn State
Will Levis vs. Florida, Ole Miss, Tennessee
Max Duggan vs. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Kansas, West Virginia
Hendon Hooker vs. Alabama, Kentucky, Florida, Georgia, Ole Miss 2021
Dorian Thompson-Robinson vs. Washington, Utah, Oregon, Stanford
Grayson McCall vs. Marshall, Old Dominion, Georgia Southern
Anthony Richardson vs. Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Utah
KJ Jefferson vs. Ole Miss 2021, BYU, South Carolina, Texas A&M
Bo Nix vs. Georgia, BYU, Stanford, UCLA
Tyler Van Dyke vs. UNC, Texas A&M, Middle Tennessee
Jaren Hall vs. Oregon, Notre Dame, Arkansas
Tanner McKee vs. UCLA, Oregon, USC, Washington
Cameron Rising vs. UCLA, Florida, USC
Michael Penix Jr vs. Stanford, UCLA, California
Matt Corral vs. LSU, Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee (all 2021)

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SteveSmithTD89 Proficient

SteveSmithTD89

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Icege said:

1. Bryce Young (Alabama)
2. Will Levis (Kentucky)
3. CJ Stroud (Ohio State)
4. Anthony Richardson (Florida)
5. Max Duggan (TCU)
6. Grayson McCall  (Coastal Carolina)
7. Hendon Hooker (Tennessee)
8. KJ Jefferson (Arkansas)
9. Bo Nix (Oregon)
10. Tyler Van Dyke (Miami)
11. Michael Penix Jr (Washington)
12. Jaren Hall (BYU)
13. Dorian Thompson-Robinson (UCLA)
14. Tanner McKee (Stanford)
15. Cameron Rising (Utah)

I've got to watch games still for the guys outside of the top 7, but I'll also say that if Matt Corral were in this draft class based on his 2021 game film alone I'd have him as QB1 on that list. 

For those interested in games watched so far:
Bryce Young vs. Texas, Tennessee, LSU, Ole Miss, Ole Miss 2021
CJ Stroud vs. Notre Dame, Iowa, Penn State
Will Levis vs. Florida, Ole Miss, Tennessee
Max Duggan vs. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Kansas, West Virginia
Hendon Hooker vs. Alabama, Kentucky, Florida, Georgia, Ole Miss 2021
Dorian Thompson-Robinson vs. Washington, Utah, Oregon, Stanford
Grayson McCall vs. Marshall, Old Dominion, Georgia Southern
Anthony Richardson vs. Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Utah
KJ Jefferson vs. Ole Miss 2021, BYU, South Carolina, Texas A&M
Bo Nix vs. Georgia, BYU, Stanford, UCLA
Tyler Van Dyke vs. UNC, Texas A&M, Middle Tennessee
Jaren Hall vs. Oregon, Notre Dame, Arkansas
Tanner McKee vs. UCLA, Oregon, USC, Washington
Cameron Rising vs. UCLA, Florida, USC
Michael Penix Jr vs. Stanford, UCLA, California
Matt Corral vs. LSU, Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee (all 2021)

Maybe its rose glasses since hes on the team but man... I have a hard time not rolling with MC for at least one season. 

And Levis - idk how you watched those 3 games and came away with him at 2. I just see an older QB who has a cannon for an arm but he is careless with the ball, reckless as a runner, has zero internal clock in the pocket and has yet to show me ANYTHING in the last 2 years against a quality opponent. 

I want to like him, I love what you hear from his coaches and teammates - I just do not see it on the field. 2nd round? Sure. But not top 5. 

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Icege Grand Master

Icege

Posted
Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, SteveSmithTD89 said:

Maybe its rose glasses since hes on the team but man... I have a hard time not rolling with MC for at least one season. 

And Levis - idk how you watched those 3 games and came away with him at 2. I just see an older QB who has a cannon for an arm but he is careless with the ball, reckless as a runner, has zero internal clock in the pocket and has yet to show me ANYTHING in the last 2 years against a quality opponent. 

I want to like him, I love what you hear from his coaches and teammates - I just do not see it on the field. 2nd round? Sure. But not top 5. 

Even with those glasses, if you look at his performance in 2021 and compare it to QBs this season (as well as last season if you want to compare his film to the current top 3 when they were all playing), it's hard not to want to roll with him like you said. The dude would be the #1 QB this year if he had gone back to school.

tbh, idk how anybody could watch the Tennessee game and come away thinking that it was on Levis. The team was down 30-6 and his OC called run-run-pass-punt. What did concern me about that game though was how Levis struggled to do too much. He's been let down by his team all season (omg the drops), but what's been especially troubling is how he didn't elevate the guys around him. With that said, he is the most "pro-ready, prototypical" QB. Runs an pro-style offense from under center that's a derivative of the Shanahan-offense, big body with a big arm, tough, etc... but is he a leader of men? He plays hurt, but does he inspire the team around him? I haven't seen that. Hard to argue against the fact that you could draft him late in the 1st and have a solid game manager to pilot a team.

I don't see any guys in this draft that are top 5. Bryce Young's durability concerns alone push him down to the #15 range imo, and that's if a team is okay with letting him sit, learn, and bulk up for a year. Levis I can see being a late 1st like Pickett with the same issues: can distribute the rock but isn't going to take over games too often. Stroud I see as a 2nd round guy: either he develops and you roll with him, or he doesn't and you hit reset.

Even though I'm the conductor of the Duggan hypetrain, I wouldn't touch him until the 4th round at the earliest. Would be a great day 3 pick-up to have as a developmental option behind Corral as they have similar playstyles, but I think our best bet is Matt.

Edited by Icege
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LinvilleGorge Grand Master

LinvilleGorge

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Posted
21 hours ago, Jay Roosevelt said:

My take on the Bryce Young size debate...

If you think his size will affect his ability to play QB at a high level then you pass on him.

If your concern is that he's too small to stay healthy in the NFL... well, you just can't draft scared and I think his skills easily negate any concerns over his size.

Thing is... he's going to add weight/bulk once he starts training for the draft. He can get up to 210 at least, possibly up to 215. Now, he can't grow taller of course, but if he were 6'1 and 210 you'd have FAR fewer people worried about his size. He can add the weight.

My question is this: is 3 inches of height really the difference in this guy being a sucessful NFL QB or not? Who actually believes that?

Don't overthink it. Don't nitpick. Don't look past what's standing right in front of you.

Bryce Young is the best QB in this draft. If we're in a position to do so, we NEED to take him.

It makes sense to me. Would you rather him be 6'5" 240? Absolutely. But he's not and he never will be. I'd rather have a baller who lacks ideal size than a dud who looks the part.

If he can put on the weight it would alleviate a lot of concerns. No one in Seattle or New Orleans was boo hooing about Russell Wilson and Drew Brees lacking ideal height.

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ForJimmy Grand Master

ForJimmy

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1 hour ago, LinvilleGorge said:

It makes sense to me. Would you rather him be 6'5" 240? Absolutely. But he's not and he never will be. I'd rather have a baller who lacks ideal size than a dud who looks the part.

If he can put on the weight it would alleviate a lot of concerns. No one in Seattle or New Orleans was boo hooing about Russell Wilson and Drew Brees lacking ideal height.

I lean towards Stroud over him due to the height, but I'll be damned it Young doesn't have one of the better QB minds I've seen in college, stays cool under pressure, and has great arm strength and speed.  If he shows up at 6'0" and just over 200 pounds (which is possible), he might be the guy in this draft.  

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