Jump to content

  • Welcome!

    Register and log in easily with Twitter or Google accounts!

    Or simply create a new Huddle account. 

    Members receive fewer ads , access our dark theme, and the ability to join the discussion!

     

Probability Analysis of the Burns and DJ decision

Evil Hurney

By Evil Hurney,
in Carolina Panthers

 Share

Recommended Posts

Sgt Schultz Grand Master

Sgt Schultz

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Davidson Deac II said:

Fwiw, it took us so long and so many draft picks to get a solid receiver who is not a head case and can stay healthy, that it surprises me how many are willing to let him go for a couple of draft picks. 

  

That is one of the major reasons I was not in favor of dealing DJ away.  I remember going into every draft with our first need being WR.  It may be again at some point even with DJ, but in the "old days" we didn't even have one on the roster to point to.

  • Pie 3
  • Beer 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Toomers Mentor

Toomers

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Evil Hurney said:

 

Burns is under team control for 3 more seasons (5th year + 2 franchise tags). At any point in the next year they can still trade him for those Rams picks. It's not like they have been (or will be) spent.

Sure. Until he holds out this Spring. Especially when they just told his agent how valuable you think he is. You think he’s going to happily play on tags when he is going to want 25M/yr(or more now) and somewhere around 60M guaranteed. 
 
    Ask your dice this…. What package looks better. Credit to stbugs
 
   Edge like Reddick for 15Myr

   FA C or MLB or TE for 10-12M/yr. 

    Two 1sts almost sure to be top 16. 
  
    2nd round pick. 
 

     Or

    BUrns for 25-27M/yr

 


 

  • Pie 4
  • Beer 1
  • Flames 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
mrcompletely11 Grand Master

mrcompletely11

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Evil Hurney said:

There's been a lot of digital ink spilled over the non-trades of Brian Burns and DJ Moore. The alleged total compensation was 3 1st-round picks and 1 2nd-round pick for the pair. I was curious what probability said regarding the decision.

Assumptions:

  • We can spend all the picks at the same time and neglect the year of the draft pick (some were way off in the future making them less valuable)
  • Burns and DJ are considered Pro Bowl caliber players; Note that I didn't say All Pro, which is a higher bar
  • A 1st round pick becomes a Pro Bowler 44% of the time; Keep in mind WRs and DL have been shown to hit at a much lower rate
  • A 2nd round pick becomes a Pro Bower 18% of the time

Background:

I am going to model this using a probability tree where we are essentially rolling a dice for each pick. We have 3 dice weighted for a 1st-round pick (44% success) and 1 dice weighted for a 2nd-round pick (18% success). Once we have 2 success we stop rolling and collect the profit (the extra picks).

Results:

image.png.ce0ab436516abfc33fadeba023085c02.png

Takeaway:

Within this context the Panthers made the right decision. They have a 41% chance of profiting off the trade (big or small gain) compared to a 52% chance of losing on the trade (big or small loss).

Finally have a chance to dig through this.  A few thoughts here.  While I appreciate your work I dont think it makes sense simply to say a trade is worth it based on pro bowl alone.  Seems a bit arbitrary at best.  But say we do grade it like you want then as we mentioned Moore is not a pro bowler so that trade flips. 

 

Also in your analysis you dont take into account salary/contract structure, value of draft picks to move up/down in draft or how those picks translate.  I agree what you put together is at least something to try and be objective about whether we should have or shouldnt have but its not even close to the full picture.    And to nitpick even more you could easily argue that the pro bowl is similar to the nba all star where the fans dictate a large deciding factor on who makes it so its a bit subjective as well.  I mean Gilmore made the pro bowl last year and didnt even play half the season so its probably not a fair measurement either way.

  • Pie 1
  • Beer 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Aussie Tank Grand Master

Aussie Tank

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Toomers said:

Sure. Until he holds out this Spring. Especially when they just told his agent how valuable you think he is. You think he’s going to happily play on tags when he is going to want 25M/yr(or more now) and somewhere around 60M guaranteed. 
 
    Ask your dice this…. What package looks better. Credit to stbugs
 
   Edge like Reddick for 15Myr

   FA C or MLB or TE for 10-12M/yr. 

    Two 1sts almost sure to be top 16. 
  
    2nd round pick. 
 

     Or

    BUrns for 25-27M/yr

 


 

Hit the nail on the head 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Skack25 Community Regular

Skack25

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Evil Hurney said:

There's been a lot of digital ink spilled over the non-trades of Brian Burns and DJ Moore. The alleged total compensation was 3 1st-round picks and 1 2nd-round pick for the pair. I was curious what probability said regarding the decision.

Assumptions:

  • We can spend all the picks at the same time and neglect the year of the draft pick (some were way off in the future making them less valuable)
  • Burns and DJ are considered Pro Bowl caliber players; Note that I didn't say All Pro, which is a higher bar
  • A 1st round pick becomes a Pro Bowler 44% of the time; Keep in mind WRs and DL have been shown to hit at a much lower rate
  • A 2nd round pick becomes a Pro Bower 18% of the time

Background:

I am going to model this using a probability tree where we are essentially rolling a dice for each pick. We have 3 dice weighted for a 1st-round pick (44% success) and 1 dice weighted for a 2nd-round pick (18% success). Once we have 2 success we stop rolling and collect the profit (the extra picks).

Results:

image.png.ce0ab436516abfc33fadeba023085c02.png

Takeaway:

Within this context the Panthers made the right decision. They have a 41% chance of profiting off the trade (big or small gain) compared to a 52% chance of losing on the trade (big or small loss).

Magnificent.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
1of10Charnatives Mentor

1of10Charnatives

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Sir Purr said:

 I think we should trade all of our really good players for draft picks so we have more chances to replace them with really good players.  The Huddle has convinced me that this is the way.

To be fair, one factor in the thinking here that is part of the equation but rarely gets discussed is the value of really good players on cheap rookie deals. Having a young high performing QB on a rookie deal in particular provides you with so much value at so little cost it's almost a cheat code because of the way it lets you load up your roster elsewhere.

If the Chargers don't win a SB or at the least come close in the next few years before they have to sign Herbert to an extension, it will be an indictment of their FO's ability to capitalize.

Should everyone be traded away willy nilly, even in a rebuild? 

No.

  • Flames 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Waldo Grand Master

Waldo

Posted
Posted

Ellis' podcast went in to that trade then players that went in the draft with Burns' production being absolutely replaceable and overvalued by the Panthers/fans. That was the kind of trade that isn't often seen and we won't get nearly that much if we do end up shipping him off on his 5th year option or tag. That fact it could have put us in reach to snag our QB of choice without crippling our future is a no brainer with that 2nd. It just sounds like what Hurney said about Burns is still being thrown around in house and it's just not true yet and I'm not sure it ever will be. If he signs his new deal at those projected #s then we will be screaming to dump him in less than 3 years unless we go to a 3-4 and he is putting up the kind of production that justifies the contract he is expecting after hearing what another team valued him at...even if they were braindead to offer that for him. 

Moore I get though that GB pick could be a top 10 pick but his cap hit is hard to trade this year. 

Neither one is good enough to be untouchable. Sorry but it's true and I like both as players. 

  • Pie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
mrcompletely11 Grand Master

mrcompletely11

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Waldo said:

Ellis' podcast went in to that trade then players that went in the draft with Burns' production being absolutely replaceable and overvalued by the Panthers/fans. That was the kind of trade that isn't often seen and we won't get nearly that much if we do end up shipping him off on his 5th year option or tag. That fact it could have put us in reach to snag our QB of choice without crippling our future is a no brainer with that 2nd. It just sounds like what Hurney said about Burns is still being thrown around in house and it's just not true yet and I'm not sure it ever will be. If he signs his new deal at those projected #s then we will be screaming to dump him in less than 3 years unless we go to a 3-4 and he is putting up the kind of production that justifies the contract he is expecting after hearing what another team valued him at...even if they were braindead to offer that for him. 

Moore I get though that GB pick could be a top 10 pick but his cap hit is hard to trade this year. 

Neither one is good enough to be untouchable. Sorry but it's true and I like both as players. 

Ellis' podcast is a must listen.  Every week.  He and billy give very unbiased takes good and bad about this franchise.  In that podcast you are referring they stop short of talking about fitt and catch themselves before they seemingly give up some nuggets on the situation.   But yeah their going through this trade is worth the listen alone

  • Beer 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Waldo Grand Master

Waldo

Posted
Posted
Just now, mrcompletely11 said:

Ellis' podcast is a must listen.  Every week.  He and billy give very unbiased takes good and bad about this franchise.  In that podcast you are referring they stop short of talking about fitt and catch themselves before they seemingly give up some nuggets on the situation.   But yeah their going through this trade is worth the listen alone

Even when I don't agree with them they add value to the total conversation and I love it. It's been a light in these dark times. They nailed this one and they did pull up short. 

We traded CMC and got better because we have had no one that could use him correctly (the bonus for him is he found that now). We haven't with Burns either IMO and adding a giant contract to that equation isn't going to make anything better lol. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • PMH4OWPW7JD2TDGWZKTOYL2T3E.jpg

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • L-TownCat
      Report: Panthers great Luke Kuechly being eyed for big TV job

      By L-TownCat · Posted

      So the last guy who had the job got hired by his former team directly into a role he has no direct experience in?
    • Khyber53
      Report: Panthers great Luke Kuechly being eyed for big TV job

      By Khyber53 · Posted

      Hard to pass up millions for a couple of days work per week for a coaching gig in the NFL that is 60-80 hours each week during the season and a more relaxed 50 hours a week during the off season. Yeah, I'd love to see him as our DC but hard to see him giving up the cushy job there if he gets it. And he's going to be a great commentator for the network.
    • Khyber53
      2027: Sharing my thoughts on the cap without a lotta research

      By Khyber53 · Posted

      Really, I think that is where negotiations come in. If you've got a QB getting you to 10 wins but statistically he's not a great performer, then you say look you can take $22 million or you can try it on the market. Because let's face it, out there, any leadership skills that we're seeing aren't going to be on the table, it's just going to be performance and that lands him in the QB2 market, which is much, much less lucrative (although any of us would love that money).  No one is saying that Bryce will be a $50 million QB, barring something short of a miraculous jump. I'm just saying that if we are winning somehow with him at the helm, then it would be fuging stupid to dive back into the rookie pool all over again. Let's say we do hit the 10 win mark, heck, let's call it 11 and a second round in the playoffs. I think we can all say that would be a really uplifting result and one that should be doable if we have good play. What do we do then? Here's what I would offer if I were Morgan and Tepper. $25 million a year for 3 years, each year with up to $10 million in incentives for touchdowns, wins, playoff depth, being under 10 interceptions, completing a full season, passing yardage milestones, taking less than 15 sacks. Look, Bryce isn't a Ferrari, he isn't a Corvette, or a mid-level BMW. He's probably a new Toyota Sienna that will definitely get you somewhere and bring the whole team along with it, no fuss but not a lot of pizazz.  And really, it's about the destination, not about what drove you there.
×
×
  • Create New...