How can you predict the success of a college QB in the NFL?

[d-dave]

While it's been entertaining and occasionally educational to look through people's threads and posts about drafting versus FA Qbs; I kept going back to how do you "create" your own luck?  So I was just looking at a list of QBs taken in the first round and found this article/list which includes pre-draft quotes.

https://www.insider.com/nfl-draft-first-round-quarterbacks-busts-stars#39-ej-manuel-buffalo-bills-2013-1

There have been plenty of QBs who are average athletes who have reasonable NFL careers.  Dynamic athletes are all over the place.  Hindsight is 20/20 so we should use it to get better.  What do you look for in a guy to be the QB?  What is that special quality that separates a Mac Jones from Joe Burrow?  How do you avoid a Zach Wilson sized bust? What are the qualities that allowed Patrick Mahomes to maximize his talent?  How do you avoid a Blake Bortles or EJ Manuel?

For the player - it's guts.  Some will say "that dude" or "he's got that dog in him" but it all means the same thing: Do they have the special IT factor that will elevate them to superstar status.  Joe Burrow probably has the most "IT" factor in the NFL.  Total professional arrogance.  But it helps him play better.

For the 2023 Draft, which QBs have the IT factor?  Who has the guts?  To me, it's Bryce Young.

So if a guy isn't built with that individual greatness within him, what do you need?  That's where coaching comes into play.  You need teachers who can mold some of these younger guys into men.  Look at Mahomes.  When he was drafted, everyone was like "What? It's Andy Reid high?"  Well he saw the traits he wanted, and he's since molded Mahomes, allowed Mahomes a system where he can trust his talent, and he's developed the IT factor.

So do you take a "safe" QB with all the size and measurables?  Or do you take a chance on talent?  It's going to be quite interesting to see what our Panthers do as well as how the narrative continues forward.

[WUnderhill]

I really just want Young or Stroud, would be happy with either. I’m a bit higher on Young but Stroud has a lot to like too. Wouldn’t want to trade up for Richardson but if he’s there at 9 sure. 

[Riverboat Ron]

Simulate the draft and you’ll see who has a “Superstar trait”, reload and grab all the best prospects.

[kungfoodude]

13 minutes ago, WUnderhill said:

I really just want Young or Stroud, would be happy with either. I’m a bit higher on Young but Stroud has a lot to like too. Wouldn’t want to trade up for Richardson but if he’s there at 9 sure. 

IMO, the gulf between Young/Stroud and the rest is worth taking the gamble on to trade up.

[Tbe]

The ‘IT’ factor is competitiveness, arm talent, and (most important) intelligence and mental processing speed. The ability to remember what they see on film (think Luke), see and read the field quickly, mentally keep track of receivers and defenders, and make decisions in 2-3 seconds.

 

[Jon Snow]

2 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

IMO, the gulf between Young/Stroud and the rest is worth taking the gamble on to trade up.

I'm getting the impression that teams do not see it that way. It's Young and then everyone else. 

[raleigh-panther]

14 minutes ago, Tbe said:

The ‘IT’ factor is competitiveness, arm talent, and (most important) intelligence and mental processing speed. The ability to remember what they see on film (think Luke), see and read the field quickly, mentally keep track of receivers and defenders, and make decisions in 2-3 seconds.

 

Yes. Processing speed…to me, is the differential….what is the test that it is said demonstrates processing speed, S2…someone posted about that a couple of weeks ago as related to Brock Purdue 

the system they are coming to as well …may help or hurt that

there was also an interesting article I saw some time ago that mentioned  players like Brees and Mahomes had baseball in their backgrounds were used to getting rid of the ball quickly…they weren’t the only ones just the ones I can recall 

there is no sure thing at any position in pro football regardless 

and I would add that we not forget that processing speed of the qb is affected by those around him…have WRs or TEs  or  rbs not being where they are supposed to be or a poor oline and it doesn’t matter the QBs processing speed. 
 

I’ll add one thing. How were they personally in big pressure moments?  Did they shrink or did they rise?  If they got the ball out and the receiver dropped it, that’s one thing…if they threw an interception as Levi’s does, that’s a whole other issue.

Edited March 8, 2023 by raleigh-panther

[MHS831]

8 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I'm getting the impression that teams do not see it that way. It's Young and then everyone else. 

I agree--

I would rate them:
1. Young

2. Stroud

3. Richardson

4. Levis

But I see Richardson as a player who could top some team's boards..same for Stroud. 

[TheCasillas]

This thread points to a mechanism that helps forecast the transition.

Edited March 8, 2023 by TheCasillas

[MHS831]

1 minute ago, TheCasillas said:

This thread points to a mechanism that helps forecast the transition.

I have said that I do not think they are evaluating QBs the right way--not that I knew how to do it, but I even considered having them play a video game that realistically simulates defenses.  The QB testee would have to make pre-snap adjustments and reads, checkdowns, etc.  I would love to see how these guys did it--gonna read

[Davidson Deac II]

47 minutes ago, d-dave said:

While it's been entertaining and occasionally educational to look through people's threads and posts about drafting versus FA Qbs; I kept going back to how do you "create" your own luck?  So I was just looking at a list of QBs taken in the first round and found this article/list which includes pre-draft quotes.

https://www.insider.com/nfl-draft-first-round-quarterbacks-busts-stars#39-ej-manuel-buffalo-bills-2013-1

There have been plenty of QBs who are average athletes who have reasonable NFL careers.  Dynamic athletes are all over the place.  Hindsight is 20/20 so we should use it to get better.  What do you look for in a guy to be the QB?  What is that special quality that separates a Mac Jones from Joe Burrow?  How do you avoid a Zach Wilson sized bust? What are the qualities that allowed Patrick Mahomes to maximize his talent?  How do you avoid a Blake Bortles or EJ Manuel?

For the player - it's guts.  Some will say "that dude" or "he's got that dog in him" but it all means the same thing: Do they have the special IT factor that will elevate them to superstar status.  Joe Burrow probably has the most "IT" factor in the NFL.  Total professional arrogance.  But it helps him play better.

For the 2023 Draft, which QBs have the IT factor?  Who has the guts?  To me, it's Bryce Young.

So if a guy isn't built with that individual greatness within him, what do you need?  That's where coaching comes into play.  You need teachers who can mold some of these younger guys into men.  Look at Mahomes.  When he was drafted, everyone was like "What? It's Andy Reid high?"  Well he saw the traits he wanted, and he's since molded Mahomes, allowed Mahomes a system where he can trust his talent, and he's developed the IT factor.

So do you take a "safe" QB with all the size and measurables?  Or do you take a chance on talent?  It's going to be quite interesting to see what our Panthers do as well as how the narrative continues forward.

Fwiw, I don't think you can accurately predict NFL success.  You make an educated guess and hope it works out.  

[Jon Snow]

You can't.  You could narrow down the most pro ready in a draft class but whether that player will be the best of the group in the nfl is pure luck. Ususlly that guy turns out not be the best of the class. 

[kungfoodude]

49 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I'm getting the impression that teams do not see it that way. It's Young and then everyone else. 

Hard to say, TBH. I think it will start to become a little clearer closer to the draft as lips loosen up.

Edited March 8, 2023 by kungfoodude

[Jon Snow]

10 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Hard to say, TBH. I think it will start to become a little clearer closer to the draft as lips loosen up.

Free agency will tell you a lot. Mock drafts only tell you who they THINK will select said players.  Anyone can do that. The reality is that teams look at the big picture and that is usually different than fans now view.  Very few teams are afforded the option of developing a qb. If they are they rarely draft them high in the 1st round.  Those spots are reserved for the perceived pro ready guys. Guys that need a year of development are taken in the bottom 3rd of the 1st and top of the 2nd rounds. It just the reality of the nfl. Someone could reach for AR but I doubt he goes in the top 10.

Edited March 8, 2023 by Jon Snow