Cynthia Frelund with an interesting analytics look at CJ Stroud and Bryce Young

[panthers55]

Like many I lean toward Stroud with his bigger frame and quick accurate passes which fits the offense I think we will be running. That doesn't mean Young won't be a good choice as well. Just that you may have to adapt the gameplan to account for his size and height more than you do Stroud who is more prototypical in size.

[vorbis]

let's not overstate the issues with Bryce Young's height getting in the way of executing basic plays on offense. it will present some challenges but it's literally been done by other quarterbacks who are similar in height. and the skills those quarterbacks needed to function with their height, those are exactly the skills that Young possesses. in fact many would say they are some of his stronger attributes.

height just isn't the primary (or secondary) concern with him. frame is. and in my opinion, I wonder if his arm is quite strong enough to play in the NFL like it did in college. we've seen QBs with elite traits but middle-of-the-pack arms get exposed in the NFL.

still love him, though, and I go back and forth over who I'd prefer. Stroud is the box-checking QB who you wonder if he'll ever truly ascend into a top tier NFL quarterback. Young is the it-factor QB who you wonder if his skills will play the same way at the next level.

[MHS831]

In my opinion, Frelend could be BSing the NFL world with most of her "analytics" but she does make some good points here that give us reason to consider different perspectives.  For example, if Young is able to overcome his size and stay safe, the next question is "how?"  A deeper drop.  She mentions tackles, and that is a good point.  A deeper drop makes the path the QB more linear for edge rushers, who are currently challenged with their bends.  A deep drop lessens the angle, given the OTs the challenge of facing more power and speed.  Although the difference is slight, it can be significant.  To compensate, the OT also has a more linear drop, (an ideal OT drop is approximately 45 degrees outward) and this new challenge might cause that drop to increase to 55 degrees, for example).  That reduces the size of the pocket because it causes the initial contact to be inside a smaller pocket. 

I think it was Byron Bell and Mike Remmers who were dropping at nearly the same angle of the QB--straight back--forcing Cam to step up or spin out.  Problem was, Cam was not that deep and his athleticism could extend plays.  However, Frelend hits on a great point without getting into the details.  The impact on the OTs.

In other words, if all this is true, it places a tremendous pressure on your OTs--something that may not be exposed in college, but in the NFL, it will be exploited--in my opinion. 

If you want to read a VERY THOROUGH statistical breakdown of "Time to Throw" (TTT) this Colts article is second to none:

https://www.stampedeblue.com/2021/10/16/22727432/fine-lets-talk-about-time-to-throw

Based on these stats, it sure seems as if the most pass attempts are between 2.4 and 2.7 seconds.

Edited March 31, 2023 by MHS831

[mrcompletely11]

24 minutes ago, rayzor said:

My reaction if we draft these guys:

Young: Damn, he's going to be fun to watch.

AR: Damn, he's going to be incredible in a couple years

Stroud: Damn, we're going to start winning

Levis: Dammit.

Ive said for months that with stroud we win the south and its not even close.

[mrcompletely11]

12 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

In my opinion, Frelend could be BSing the NFL world with most of her "analytics" but she does make some good points here that give us reason to consider different perspectives.  For example, if Young is able to overcome his size and stay safe, the next question is "how?"  A deeper drop.  She mentions tackles, and that is a good point.  A deeper drop makes the path the QB more linear for edge rushers, who are currently challenged with their bends.  A deep drop lessens the angle, given the OTs the challenge of facing more power and speed.  Although the difference is slight, it can be significant.  To compensate, the OT also has a more linear drop, (an ideal OT drop is approximately 45 degrees outward) and this new challenge might cause that drop to increase to 55 degrees, for example).  That reduces the size of the pocket because it causes the initial contact to be inside a smaller pocket. 

I think it was Byron Bell and Mike Remmers who were dropping at nearly the same angle of the QB--straight back--forcing Cam to step up or spin out.  Problem was, Cam was not that deep and his athleticism could extend plays.  However, Frelend hits on a great point without getting into the details.  The impact on the OTs.

In other words, if all this is true, it places a tremendous pressure on your OTs--something that may not be exposed in college, but in the NFL, it will be exploited--in my opinion. 

If you want to read a VERY THOROUGH statistical breakdown of "Time to Throw" (TTT) this Colts article is second to none:

https://www.stampedeblue.com/2021/10/16/22727432/fine-lets-talk-about-time-to-throw

Based on these stats, it sure seems as if the most pass attempts are between 2.4 and 2.7 seconds.

If you think that about Freuland then you probably should do some research on her.  Her background is pretty nuts and she was at the forefront of nfl and analytics. 

 

She is not one to skew or make up her data for a "hot take".

Edited March 31, 2023 by mrcompletely11

[rayzor]

Just now, mrcompletely11 said:

Ive said for months that with stroud we win the south and its not even close.

The south is so weak right now we could win it with Andy Dalton. Not that he's a better QB than Carr, but the situation is much better here than there.

I go back and forth between the top 2-3 QBs as to who I think we should draft, but I'll stick with Stroud being the safest bet to be a continual winner and owning the NFCS. In my head, I think he's the better pick.

[mrcompletely11]

Just now, rayzor said:

The south is so weak right now we could win it with Andy Dalton. Not that he's a better QB than Carr, but the situation is much better here than there.

I go back and forth between the top 2-3 QBs as to who I think we should draft, but I'll stick with Stroud being the safest bet to be a continual winner and owning the NFCS. In my head, I think he's the better pick.

I mean I wouldnt go that far lol but I could see it.  Just see us a juggernaut in the south around midseason with stroud

[ForJimmy]

31 minutes ago, rayzor said:

My reaction if we draft these guys:

Young: Damn, he's going to be fun to watch.

AR: Damn, he's going to be incredible in a couple years

Stroud: Damn, we're going to start winning

Levis: Dammit.

Any one of them should have our fan base excited, but at the end of the day winning is the most important.  That's what I learn Stroud out of the 3.  Lowest risk with still a very high ceiling.  No one should be upset if he is the pick. 

[CPcavedweller]

7 hours ago, Ivan The Awesome said:

Those analytics are fascinating. I'm still a Stroud guy but if they get Young I won't be mad. 

3.02 seconds in the NFL is an eternity to hold on to the ball. Add in his lack of arm strength and you're shrinking the field vertically and horizontally depending on the hash as well.

[rayzor]

22 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

I mean I wouldnt go that far lol but I could see it.  Just see us a juggernaut in the south around midseason with stroud

Agreed. It's not that we would be unbeatable with the other guys, including Dalton. It's more a lack of respect I have for the rest of the division. It's garbage. 

[thefuzz]

36 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

In my opinion, Frelend could be BSing the NFL world with most of her "analytics" but she does make some good points here that give us reason to consider different perspectives.  For example, if Young is able to overcome his size and stay safe, the next question is "how?"  A deeper drop.  She mentions tackles, and that is a good point.  A deeper drop makes the path the QB more linear for edge rushers, who are currently challenged with their bends.  A deep drop lessens the angle, given the OTs the challenge of facing more power and speed.  Although the difference is slight, it can be significant.  To compensate, the OT also has a more linear drop, (an ideal OT drop is approximately 45 degrees outward) and this new challenge might cause that drop to increase to 55 degrees, for example).  That reduces the size of the pocket because it causes the initial contact to be inside a smaller pocket. 

I think it was Byron Bell and Mike Remmers who were dropping at nearly the same angle of the QB--straight back--forcing Cam to step up or spin out.  Problem was, Cam was not that deep and his athleticism could extend plays.  However, Frelend hits on a great point without getting into the details.  The impact on the OTs.

In other words, if all this is true, it places a tremendous pressure on your OTs--something that may not be exposed in college, but in the NFL, it will be exploited--in my opinion. 

If you want to read a VERY THOROUGH statistical breakdown of "Time to Throw" (TTT) this Colts article is second to none:

https://www.stampedeblue.com/2021/10/16/22727432/fine-lets-talk-about-time-to-throw

Based on these stats, it sure seems as if the most pass attempts are between 2.4 and 2.7 seconds.

Chiefs LT left, and many thought it was because it's very hard to play T for a QB who loves to extend plays...ala Young.

I don't like having to play out of the gun, and I think that Young will need that to survive/thrive at the next level.

[Mr. Scot]

1 minute ago, thefuzz said:

I don't like having to play out of the gun, and I think that Young will need that to survive/thrive at the next level.

You should check out the Feldman article in the other thread.

[thefuzz]

23 minutes ago, CPcavedweller said:

3.02 seconds in the NFL is an eternity to hold on to the ball. Add in his lack of arm strength and you're shrinking the field vertically and horizontally depending on the hash as well.

This is my fear.  Young plays a little like Mahommes....but he doesn't have the size, nor the arm strength for it to translate easily to the NFL.

We shall see.

[rayzor]

23 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

Any one of them should have our fan base excited, but at the end of the day winning is the most important.  That's what I learn Stroud out of the 3.  Lowest risk with still a very high ceiling.  No one should be upset if he is the pick. 

Agreed. And the fierce debate between camps, especially Young and Stroud....I think it's just funny but completely unnecessary. It's such an easy time to make a choice. I seem to be leaning more frequently towards Stroud, but I'll be stoked if its any of those top three. We win quicker if it's Stroud or Young, but AR is going to be an absolute stud in the right situation.