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More advanced stats on Bryce and C.J

panther4life

By panther4life,
in Carolina Panthers

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panther4life Community Regular

panther4life

Posted
Posted

Really worth reading the entire scouting reports linked (same author, Dave Richard CBS sports).

Bryce Young https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/bryce-young-2023-nfl-draft-profile-fantasy-football-scouting-best-fits-dynasty-advanced-stats-more/

Quote
  • Arm strength is good. Multiple examples of passes traveling downfield as far as 48 Air Yards.
  • Finished top-15 in 2022 among qualifying QBs (at least 250 attempts) in yards per attempt (8.8), TD rate (8.4%), TD-INT ratio (6.4 to 1), and passing efficiency (163.2). 
  • Threw to his running backs 18.2% of the time in 2022, 10th-most among all qualifiers.
  • Credited with just a 10% off-target pass rate, seventh-best among qualifying QBs
  • 43.3% completion rate on throws of over 15 Air Yards, 46th out of 98 qualifying QBs in 2022.
  • 10.0 ADOT, tied for 40th among qualifying QBs
  • 749 of his 3,328 yards were on deep throws.
  • 71.9% completion rate when NOT pressured (24th among 98 QB w/ 250+ attempts)
  • 46.4% completion rate when pressured (42nd among 98 QB w/ 250+ attempts)
  • 12 of his 32 touchdowns came on pass plays of 20-plus Air Yards.
  • Four interceptions over 140 career red-zone pass attempts (and two interceptions over 66 attempts inside the 10).
  • 48.5% career TD rate on passes thrown inside of 10 yards (24th among 188 QBs over past 5 years)
  • Eliminating kneel-downs and sacks, Young ran for 231 yards on 42 carries (5.5 average) with four touchdowns, all between 4 and 8 yards away from the goal line.

 

C.J Stroud https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/fantasy-football-2023-dynasty-landing-page-with-new-rookie-only-mock-nfl-draft-profiles-rankings-and-more/

Quote
  • Played 121 snaps under center, which is a lot for a college quarterback these days.
  • Finished top five in 2022 among qualifying QBs (98 passers with at least 250 attempts) in yards per attempt (9.5), TD rate (10.5%), TD-INT ratio (6.83 to 1), and passing efficiency (177.7). He was better than Bryce Young in each category. 
  • Threw to his running backs 4.6% of the time in 2022, 97th out of 98 qualifiers.
  • Off-target on 12.6% of his throws, 42nd among all qualifiers (only 2.6% worse than Bryce Young, who was seventh-best).
  • 10.3 ADOT, 12th among qualifiers.
  • Two interceptions over 124 career red-zone pass attempts, and ZERO interceptions over 53 attempts inside the 10 (both better than Young).
  • 47.2% career TD rate on passes thrown inside of 10 yards (Young's was 48.5%).
  • When pressured completed 41.3% of his throws with 21.3% off-target for 5.7 yards per attempt, per Pro Football Focus. Young was better in all three categories.
  • 66.3% completion rate, 20th best among qualifiers (and better than Bryce Young).
  • 50.8% completion rate on throws of 20-plus Air Yards, third-best among qualifiers (Young was 18th).
  • 56.0% completion rate on throws of 10-19 Air Yards, 45th among qualifiers (Young was third).
  • 56.0% completion rate specifically on throws of 16 or more Air Yards, third-best among qualifiers (Young was 46th).
  • 75.9% completion rate on throws of 9 or fewer Air Yards, 19th-best among qualifiers (Young was 74th). 
  • Had 215 yards on easy throws -- quick outs, WR screens, backfield outs and shovel passes (Young had 212).
  • 121 snaps from under center (15th most in the nation; (Young had four).
  • Excluding kneel-downs and sacks, averaged 3.3 yards per rush, 42nd among qualifying QBs.
  • Arm strength is definitely good, but expect something more like Kirk Cousins than Josh Allen. He threw five passes of 40-plus Air Yards in 2022 (three for touchdowns) with a maximum of 45. He did max out at 51 Air Yards in 2021 (11 throws of 40-plus Air Yards last year, but completed just two).

Also if you like advanced stats and have not come across this site, it's worth checking out as well:https://nfldraft.sportsinfosolutions.com/nfl-draft/home

Young's page https://nfldraft.sportsinfosolutions.com/prospect/bryce-young

Stroud's page https://nfldraft.sportsinfosolutions.com/prospect/c-j-stroud

Bryce and C.J tied for 1st in their overall metric at a score of 99 a piece and most other metrics they are very close on as well.

A few highlights from that sight include ( 22 season stats unless otherwise noted)

  • Average depth of completion (yards beyond the line of scrimmage). Stroud led here by a little over a yard per completion. 8.3 Yards vs 7.2 Yards for Bryce 
  • On target %. Young led here. 77% for Young vs 74% for Stroud
  • Young had a higher passer rating vs pressure, man defense and short throws. Stroud had a higher rating vs Zone defense and mid range throws.
  • Stroud only had rushing yards from scrambling 32 times over last 2 years vs Young who scrambled for yardage 65 times
  • Lastly to my surprise Young had a better passer rating on deep passes (20+ yards beyond los) than young, granted they don't detail the exact rating's, so could still be very close.

 

 

 

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thefuzz Mentor

thefuzz

Posted
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Couple of those things kinda confirms what I was seeing watching them play.

Young is better at shorter passes, and is  better under duress.

Stroud is better at mid range, and can throw deep, but that's not his cup of tea.

 

I still kinda liken them to Manning 1's arm and placement for CJ, and Wilsons ability to create and bomb here and there for huge splash plays.

I do NOT think that Stroud has Mannings ability to see the field, and I also don't think that Young has as good of an arm, or is as good of a runner as Early Russ.

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mrcompletely11 Grand Master

mrcompletely11

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Jackie Lee said:

I was looking for this number. Couldn't find any tape of Bryce under center, I know a lot of college teams don't do it at all but this still concerns me

(Stroud) 121 snaps from under center (15th most in the nation; (Young had four)

This should be a major red flag for teams as well

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thefuzz Mentor

thefuzz

Posted
Posted
Just now, mrcompletely11 said:

This should be a major red flag for teams as well

Came back to type....

 

The under center, or lack thereof from Bryce is something that REALLY bothers me.  It's hard to have a good run game if you can't play under center.

With Josh and Frank in there...you have to think they would want someone who isn't limited to the gun.

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mrcompletely11 Grand Master

mrcompletely11

Posted
Posted
Just now, thefuzz said:

Came back to type....

 

The under center, or lack thereof from Bryce is something that REALLY bothers me.  It's hard to have a good run game if you can't play under center.

With Josh and Frank in there...you have to think they would want someone who isn't limited to the gun.

You basically have to cater/hinder your entire offense if your guy is not efficient under center. 

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Martin Grand Master

Martin

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41 minutes ago, panther4life said:

Really worth reading the entire scouting reports linked (same author, Dave Richard CBS sports).

Bryce Young https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/bryce-young-2023-nfl-draft-profile-fantasy-football-scouting-best-fits-dynasty-advanced-stats-more/

C.J Stroud https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/fantasy-football-2023-dynasty-landing-page-with-new-rookie-only-mock-nfl-draft-profiles-rankings-and-more/

Also if you like advanced stats and have not come across this site, it's worth checking out as well:https://nfldraft.sportsinfosolutions.com/nfl-draft/home

Young's page https://nfldraft.sportsinfosolutions.com/prospect/bryce-young

Stroud's page https://nfldraft.sportsinfosolutions.com/prospect/c-j-stroud

Bryce and C.J tied for 1st in their overall metric at a score of 99 a piece and most other metrics they are very close on as well.

A few highlights from that sight include ( 22 season stats unless otherwise noted)

  • Average depth of completion (yards beyond the line of scrimmage). Stroud led here by a little over a yard per completion. 8.3 Yards vs 7.2 Yards for Bryce 
  • On target %. Young led here. 77% for Young vs 74% for Stroud
  • Young had a higher passer rating vs pressure, man defense and short throws. Stroud had a higher rating vs Zone defense and mid range throws.
  • Stroud only had rushing yards from scrambling 32 times over last 2 years vs Young who scrambled for yardage 65 times
  • Lastly to my surprise Young had a better passer rating on deep passes (20+ yards beyond los) than young, granted they don't detail the exact rating's, so could still be very close.

 

 

 

Thanks for sharing, really cool. Shows how close they really are. It is a matter of preference at this point.

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frankw Grand Master

frankw

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Plenty to like from both. But the lack of under center plays and already the clear need to design an offense around his size limitations makes it an even bigger gamble to pass on Stroud or even Richardson in favor of Young. Could pay off big. Of course it could also end with us looking like fools. Hoping we make the correct choice 🤞

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t96 Grand Master

t96

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The under-center snaps are a very fair concern with Bryce but it just brings up the question of why so few snaps? Because he's actually much worse at it? Unlikely. That's just what Alabama runs. So you have to figure out whether you think he can succeed under center. It's harder to evaluate without the sample size compared to Stroud who has already succeeded under center in a solid sample size, but it can still be evaluated and you just take that into account. I have always preferred Stroud and these stats obviously don't change that but they don't really give me any lesser of an opinion of Young. It's really not an easy choice at all and if we do take Young I wouldn't be worried about him under center, I'd trust the staff evaluated properly and that he can succeed there, even if he didn't have the opportunity to show it in college.

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onmyown Grand Master

onmyown

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, frankw said:

Plenty to like from both. But the lack of under center plays and already the clear need to design an offense around his size limitations makes it an even bigger gamble to pass on Stroud or even Richardson in favor of Young. Could pay off big. Of course it could also end with us looking like fools. Hoping we make the correct choice 🤞

We need the right people making calls. The team needs to respect what people are good at, not just rely on who is boss Tepper , Fit and Reich do not have better judgment than McCown, Brown, and Caldwell.
 

The latter should be coming together to make the best decisions. Perfect mixture of new age and old age knowledge, plus a lot of experience with QBs. 

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