What could a trade down look like?

[Mr. Scot]

Using the draft points chart, SI's Matt Verderame proposes one here...

The text:

Houston Texans: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

NEW TRADE: Panthers trade No. 1 (3,000), No. 114 (66) and No. 145 (33) to Texans for No. 2 (2,600), No. 65 (265) and No. 73 (225)

In real life, the Panthers already traded up with the Bears for the top pick. If there are two players they feel comfortable with (probably both quarterbacks) they can move back, add a couple more early-round picks and still get a franchise player. For the Texans, giving up a pair of third-round picks while ensuring they land their top target in Young is good business. Additionally, to make the math work, the Texans are also receiving a pair of Day 3 choices in return. While C.J. Stroud is a top prospect, Young is more polished, highlighted by having won both the Heisman and the AP College Football Player of the Year in 2021.

...

Carolina Panthers: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State

TRADE NOTED ABOVE: Texans trade No. 2 (2,600), No. 65 (265) and No. 73 (225) to Panthers for No. 1 (3,000), No. 114 (66) and No. 145 (33)

If the Panthers don’t value Young more than Stroud, this would be an easy decision. Carolina can pick up two third-round picks and still land the Ohio State product, who can pair with coach Frank Reich to be the power couple in Charlotte for years to come. Considering the offseason additions of running back Miles Sanders and receiver Adam Thielen, the Panthers would be an intriguing bet for the NFC South title.

...

So for Verderame, a couple of third rounders gained with us giving up a few later picks as well is enough to justify this scenario; conditional of course on the idea that we view CJ Stroud as an equally good pick to Bryce Young.

Yeah

Setting aside whether or not you like the idea of trading down at all (I know some hate it) if it were to happen I'd sure hope we ask for a lot more in return than just what's proposed here.

The points might add up, but I'm not so sure the real world value does.

Edited April 20, 2023 by Mr. Scot

[Shocker]

CJ Stroud QB, Florida

k

We aren’t settling for Stroud

Edited April 20, 2023 by Shocker

[Raleigh PF]

2 minutes ago, Shocker said:

CJ Stroud QB, Florida

k

 

Yeah, that about sums it up for me, too. Sounds like someone's boss told him to toss out article ASAP and this is the result. Pure crap.

[Mr. Scot]

6 minutes ago, Shocker said:

CJ Stroud QB, Florida

k

We aren’t settling for Stroud

Didn't notice that but I fixed it here

Verderame's next paragraph was about Anthony Richardson (he had the Lions trading up and taking him) so I'm guessing you screwed up his cut and paste.

As to "settling" though, It's all about how the Panthers view them. If they do see Stroud as equal to Young, then a trade down to gain extra picks while still getting a franchise quarterback makes plenty of sense.

(though not the one proposed here)

Edited April 20, 2023 by Mr. Scot

[Eric4280]

I’m very, very high on Young. If I’m moving down, it’s gonna be for damn near close to what we paid, just because we know how badly they’d want Young. Not doing this for a couple of thirds. It’s NOT gonna happen but I’m asking for 2, 12, and 2024 1st. Crazy? Yes. But rip someone else off for once.

[Daddy_Uncle]

I just want us to stay and take Bryce. I was very much against him but the more I have seen and heard of him, the more impressed I am. He is definitely on a different level intelligently. Only way I would give Houston our 1st is for #2, #12, and their first next year

[ForJimmy]

I think you throw the point chart out the window when you are talking QBs. If we were to do it (which I doubt) pick 33 and 2 would be the lowest and I’m not sure that gets it done. Next years first or pick 12 would make more sense but Houston isn’t doing that.

[MHS831]

I think Houston would have to give up the #12 overall or a 2024 first.

I still do not think we trade.

By the way, if you consider the fact that only about 33% of all draft picks become effective starters.  This article is one that sticks in my head when I consider trades that involve mid round draft picks:

Five years ago I did a piece detailing how most draft picks are busts, based on a study of 1996-2016 draft picks. The results, which are based on the Pro Football Reference AV metric, are sobering:

• 16.7% didn’t play for the team that drafted them
• 37% were considered useless. They either didn’t play much or didn’t make the team.
• 15.3% were considered poor. Had limited playing time and didn’t do well in the time they had.
• 10.5% were considered average. These are mediocre players that had starts or significant contributions over 2-3 years.
• 12.3% were considered good. These could be mediocre or average players that were multi-year starters, Pat Elflein or Christian Ponder for example, or perhaps some genuinely good players that didn’t last all that long for the team that drafted them- Sidney Rice for example. This is where the AV metric can over-rate a player based on the number of starts, rather than their performance while on the field.
• 6.9% were considered Great. This category is the first that includes undeniably good draft picks. In order to be considered great, they would’ve had to play for the team that drafted them into a second contract, and also performed well over those years.
• 1% were considered legendary. These are future Hall of Famers, multi-year All-Pros among the best in the league for most of their relatively long careers.

And so only about 8% of draft picks are players that really make much of a difference beyond replacement value, and only about 30% see much playing time or make a significant contribution to the team.

https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4/26/23042105/nfl-draft-pick-bust-rate-remains-very-high

Edited April 20, 2023 by MHS831

[Mr. Scot]

4 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

I think you throw the point chart out the window when you are talking QBs. If we were to do it (which I doubt) pick 33 and 2 would be the lowest and I’m not sure that gets it done. Next years first or pick 12 would make more sense but Houston isn’t doing that.

Agree completely.

Hell, I'd ask for 12, 33 and next year's first.

I might not get 'em but I'd ask 

Edited April 20, 2023 by Mr. Scot

[Mr. Scot]

9 minutes ago, Eric4280 said:

I’m very, very high on Young. If I’m moving down, it’s gonna be for damn near close to what we paid, just because we know how badly they’d want Young. Not doing this for a couple of thirds. It’s NOT gonna happen but I’m asking for 2, 12, and 2024 1st. Crazy? Yes. But rip someone else off for once.

Joe Person covered the rationale on both sides in a recent Q&A, though he was talking about Anthony Richardson as the target.

So why would the Panthers trade away Moore and four high picks to get in position for an “ideal” quarterback just to trade the top pick and take a quarterback many consider a project? They probably wouldn’t … unless Houston was so smitten with Young that Nick Caserio offered Fitterer a chance to recoup some of the picks he traded to Chicago (plus more) be in a spot to draft Richardson, considered the QB with the lowest floor but the highest ceiling.

Link

Stroud, of course, would not be a "project" at all.

Edited April 20, 2023 by Mr. Scot

[ChuckWag78]

Only for 2 & 12. Nothing less. 

[PantherOnTheProwl1523]

Just now, ChuckWag78 said:

Only for 2 & 12. Nothing less. 

#1 pick has more trade value to it More than 2 and 12. We gave up a small handful of picks and our best WR. Two picks just isn't enough.

[shaqattaq]

16 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

The points might add up, but I'm not so sure the real world value does.

They can have #1 & 93. 

We get #2, 33, 65. They're giving up about 317 points to make it worth our while.

FWIW, they would still have #12, 73, 104, 161, 188, 201, 203, 230, & 259

[Day1PanthersFan]

No, we shouldn't give up the first pick, if it turns out bad , we will live in eternal regret