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Predicting WR offensive stats by player

NAS

By NAS,
in Carolina Panthers

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NAS Grand Master

NAS

Posted
Posted

I truly think these four wide receivers will have similar number of targets, with Bryce masterfully spreading the ball around based on scheme/coverage.  Assuming they can stay healthy, I really think TMJ will have a breakout year

Terrace Marshall Jr.   55 rec, 975 yds

Thielen:  60 rec, 825 yds

Mingo:  50 rec, 750 yds

DJ Chark: 45 rec, 675 yds

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PootieNunu Grand Master

PootieNunu

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I feel like one of the WRs will have more receptions than this, just not sure which one, unless they all spend time with injuries, 51 catches is only 3 a game.... 

I guess it could go each guy getting 3-4 catches a game including the RBS/TEs but I really dont see it happening like that. Maybe each guy will take a turn having good games and keep the D guessing...

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mav1234 Grand Master

mav1234

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1 hour ago, NAS said:

I truly think these four wide receivers will have similar number of targets, with Bryce masterfully spreading the ball around based on scheme/coverage.  Assuming they can stay healthy, I really think TMJ will have a breakout year

Terrace Marshall Jr.   55 rec, 975 yds

Thielen:  60 rec, 825 yds

Mingo:  50 rec, 750 yds

DJ Chark: 45 rec, 675 yds

I largely think your proportion of total yards makes sense, but I think these numbers would probably mean we're looking at a ~4.1-4.2K yard passing rookie season for Young, which is possible but I think may be a bit high.  Each of the last two years, the Colts had ~700 yards receiving by TEs and ~650 by RBs. We certainly have a very good RB threat and I wouldn't be surprised if our TEs got around 600 yards, so I just don't see those kind of numbers.

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jfra78 Grand Master

jfra78

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I think the numbers for Mingo are high, I expect him to be a real contributor in the future, but this year in a room full of vets we are probably looking at a 200 - 300 type of year for him.  Hurst will most likely be your #2 or #3 receiver and Sanders will be #4 probably. My hope would be TMJ, Chark, Hurst, Thielen, Sanders, then Mingo, but I could see Chark, Hurst, Thielen, Sanders, TMJ, then Mingo just as easily.

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NAS Grand Master

NAS

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1 hour ago, jfra78 said:

I think the numbers for Mingo are high, I expect him to be a real contributor in the future, but this year in a room full of vets we are probably looking at a 200 - 300 type of year for him.  Hurst will most likely be your #2 or #3 receiver and Sanders will be #4 probably. My hope would be TMJ, Chark, Hurst, Thielen, Sanders, then Mingo, but I could see Chark, Hurst, Thielen, Sanders, TMJ, then Mingo just as easily.

I expect more from a high second round pick, at least 500 yds receiving

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trucpfan Mentor

trucpfan

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17 hours ago, NAS said:

I expect more from a high second round pick, at least 500 yds receiving

I'd expect more we well if we didn't include any context to this situation. If he was out 2nd or 3rd option I'd agree. But he's more like our 4th to 5th option based on all the other additions between DJ AT and HH combined with our MS out the backfield there's not that many passes left. Add in LS actually running routes which I expect even if they're short intermediate routes he will be in position to take short passes for yac. Mingo who I do expect to contribute just might not see as many opportunities to get those yards we want him to get.

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rayzor Grand Master

rayzor

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i won't argue the total yardage...though i think it might be a bit high going to the WRs.  remember, there will also be a good bit thrown to the RBs and TEs. Rookie QB + Reich offense is going to  be TE heavy and rookie QBs rely heavily on the safe outlet of a good pass catching RB. 

wouldn't surprise me to see no WR going above 750 yards this year, but several above 500 and the ball spread out pretty evenly. highest yardage from the WRs will be the guy that can get open the most consistently.

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Cdparr7 Grand Master

Cdparr7

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Just what you posted is 3200 passing yards. Thats not counting TEs, running backs, and the other WRs. So you must have the expectations that Bryce is going to throw for 4500 yards or so?

Personally, I think Bryce throws for around 3500 and 20 or so TDs his rookie year. Which puts things more like: 

Thielen- 796 yards 5 TDs

Marshall- 684 yards 3 TDs

Chark- 504 yards 1 TD

Hurst- 385 yards 3 TDs

Mingo- 355 yards 2 TD

Sanders- 216 yards 3 TD

Shenault- 205 yards 1 TD

Tremble- 155 yards

Blackshear- 110 yards 2 TD

Thomas-97 yards 1 TD

Hubbard- 81 yards

Ricci- 22 yards

Thats 3610 yards and 21 TDs

 

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Ricky Spanish Grand Master

Ricky Spanish

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I thought I wrote this out in another post but I guess I didn't hit submit. 

Here's where I see our Receivers coming out:

TMJ, Chark, Thielen - 12 Total TDs and an Avg of 700 between the three. Don't know who gets the most or what the ratio is, but 2100 yards between those 3 is the optimistic take from me.

Hurst - 500 yards with 4 TDs. Potentially more TDs and fewer yards because I think he'll be a legit RZ threat.

Mingo - 400 yards, 2 TDs

Shenault - 200-300 yards, 1 TD

Sanders - 300-400 receiving yards. 3 Receiving TDs.

All other Receivers/TEs/RBs combined - roughly 250 yards, 3 TDs

If that's the case, that gives Bryce roughly 3,750 Yards and 25 TDs which is a fantastic rookie year. Not sure if it will be that good, but I think it's possible, especially with the coaching staff we have now. 

Probably an optimistic take, can definitely see the top 3 Receivers not getting as much receiving yards total as I initially thought, but it's still possible. 

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WhoKnows Grand Master

WhoKnows

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1 hour ago, Cdparr7 said:

Just what you posted is 3200 passing yards. Thats not counting TEs, running backs, and the other WRs. So you must have the expectations that Bryce is going to throw for 4500 yards or so?

Personally, I think Bryce throws for around 3500 and 20 or so TDs his rookie year. Which puts things more like: 

Thielen- 796 yards 5 TDs

Marshall- 684 yards 3 TDs

Chark- 504 yards 1 TD

Hurst- 385 yards 3 TDs

Mingo- 355 yards 2 TD

Sanders- 216 yards 3 TD

Shenault- 205 yards 1 TD

Tremble- 155 yards

Blackshear- 110 yards 2 TD

Thomas-97 yards 1 TD

Hubbard- 81 yards

Ricci- 22 yards

Thats 3610 yards and 21 TDs

 

This looks more reasonable. The OP’s WR numbers plus Hurst, Sanders and the rest is basically a 4500 yard year. That would be a rookie record. Only 4 rookies have ever had more than 4000 yards and I’m sorry, assuming that with a WR corps led by Thiielen is too optimistic. It would be great but that’s a best, best, best case scenario.

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rayzor Grand Master

rayzor

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1 hour ago, Ricky Spanish said:

I thought I wrote this out in another post but I guess I didn't hit submit. 

Here's where I see our Receivers coming out:

TMJ, Chark, Thielen - 12 Total TDs and an Avg of 700 between the three. Don't know who gets the most or what the ratio is, but 2100 yards between those 3 is the optimistic take from me.

Hurst - 500 yards with 4 TDs. Potentially more TDs and fewer yards because I think he'll be a legit RZ threat.

Mingo - 400 yards, 2 TDs

Shenault - 200-300 yards, 1 TD

Sanders - 300-400 receiving yards. 3 Receiving TDs.

All other Receivers/TEs/RBs combined - roughly 250 yards, 3 TDs

If that's the case, that gives Bryce roughly 3,750 Yards and 25 TDs which is a fantastic rookie year. Not sure if it will be that good, but I think it's possible, especially with the coaching staff we have now. 

Probably an optimistic take, can definitely see the top 3 Receivers not getting as much receiving yards total as I initially thought, but it's still possible. 

i don't think you're going to be far off from what really happens. seems pretty reasonable.

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