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5 good players out of 31 draft picks

Hoenheim

By Hoenheim,
in Carolina Panthers

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falconlynx Grand Master

falconlynx

Posted
Posted

Only people right in this thread so far are the ones calling out that all teams essentially have bad drafting luck like this outside of the first three rounds. Do a similar chart for other teams outside of the usual winners with the best coaches and you’ll see the same. 
 

With that said, we’ve got to get better with our second rounders. 
 

This is why it kills me when anyone wants to trade one of our proven drafted players for picks who will likely be complete busts.

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Tbe Grand Master

Tbe

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Posted
5 minutes ago, falconlynx said:

Only people right in this thread so far are the ones calling out that all teams essentially have bad drafting luck like this outside of the first three rounds. Do a similar chart for other teams outside of the usual winners with the best coaches and you’ll see the same. 
 

With that said, we’ve got to get better with our second rounders. 
 

This is why it kills me when anyone wants to trade one of our proven drafted players for picks who will likely be complete busts.


100%. Fitt has been pretty average really. Of course, that gives us average results so…

The other issue is the Panthers the last 4 years or so have had FEWER overall picks than than any other team (I’ve seen that stat several times. Trying to find the source again).

Average draft performance but fewer picks is not a recipe for success.

I don’t mind getting rid of Fitt, but it’s pretty delusional to think we’re going to hire some first year GM who ends up being the 2nd coming of Howie Roseman.

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Castavar Grand Master

Castavar

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34 minutes ago, Tbe said:


100%. Fitt has been pretty average really. Of course, that gives us average results so…

The other issue is the Panthers the last 4 years or so have had FEWER overall picks than than any other team (I’ve seen that stat several times. Trying to find the source again).

Average draft performance but fewer picks is not a recipe for success.

I don’t mind getting rid of Fitt, but it’s pretty delusional to think we’re going to hire some first year GM who ends up being the 2nd coming of Howie Roseman.

Maybe if Fitterer would stop trading away draft picks like it's candy.

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toldozer Grand Master

toldozer

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7 hours ago, PootieNunu said:

To further this, these are only good players. Not one all pro, barely a pro bowler.  

Tons of assets wasted on drafting athletic guys who cant play any fuging position. 

Not to mention all the picks that were traded away to field this garbage. 

 

But those ras scores tho

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toldozer Grand Master

toldozer

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2 hours ago, Tbe said:

Most draft picks are busts, based on a study of 1996-2016 draft picks. The results, which are based on the Pro Football Reference AV metric, are:

16.7% didn’t play for the team that drafted them

37% were considered useless. They either didn’t play much or didn’t make the team.

15.3% were considered poor. Had limited playing time and didn’t do well in the time they had.

10.5% were considered average. These are mediocre players that had starts or significant contributions over 2-3 years.

12.3% were considered good. These could be mediocre or average players that were multi-year starters, Pat Elflein or Christian Ponder for example, or perhaps some genuinely good players that didn’t last all that long for the team that drafted them- Sidney Rice for example. This is where the AV metric can over-rate a player based on the number of starts, rather than their performance while on the field.

6.9% were considered Great. This category is the first that includes undeniably good draft picks. In order to be considered great, they would’ve had to play for the team that drafted them into a second contract, and also performed well over those years.

1% were considered legendary. These are future Hall of Famers, multi-year All-Pros among the best in the league for most of their relatively long careers.

And so only about 8% of draft picks are players that really make much of a difference beyond replacement value, and only about 30% see much playing time or make a significant contribution to the team.

How Many of the 8% guys did we waste under Rivera. God our roster was good from 2012-2017

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DaveThePanther2008 Grand Master

DaveThePanther2008

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Those numbers are spot on if you are evaluating the entire draft.  Rounds 1 through 3 should be spot on players that should still be around.  Corral, Marshall, Little and Grier are the only ones in the top 3 rounds that received the RED X.  

That doesn't say your list is wrong or anything but Rounds 4 through 7 are a crap shoot and projects.  Rounds 4 through 7 (19 Picks) we have only two that aren't a RED X.  That's horrendous.  If we don't start hitting on our later rounds we will be stuck in Mediocrity forever. 

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stratocatter Mentor

stratocatter

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I don't care about Fitterer because these results are pretty bad, but I know he is trying to please the new coaches, or listen to them when they say they really like a player or need a player. Then Rhule had roster control and I am going to go with, he actively demonstrated it at times. It is what I believe.

No one has earned anything though, in my eyes. Or hardly anyone has. I got no issues with job insecurity over there. They all should be working overtime to unfug this up. 

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Bear Hands Grand Master

Bear Hands

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Half of 2022 is off the team. And two of those guys were trade ups. 5 picks that amounted to nothing in 1 year. 

There’s not a comparable draft around the league in that respect. Last year was crippling.

Patriots have also been drafting pretty bad sans a few like Duggar and Gonzo. They’re falling into a similar situation but comparability doesn’t make it excusable.

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Camp Fodder Veteran

Camp Fodder

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18 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

That some folks are still clinging to not having enough information on Fitterer is honestly baffling. I wanted him to follow Rhule out the door but allowed that maybe he'd look a lot more competent without Rhule. Well... that hasn't happened.

He’s as bad at his job as Rhule was

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