What is the plan at wr?

[Panthers8969]

3 minutes ago, BrianS said:

I'm not as convinced we need a first round pick to find a good ball catcher.  Here are the top 25 receivers (TE's included) by yardage this year, and the round they were drafted in:

Yes, there are 11 first rounders in there, but if you look at highly successful NFL players at ANY position, you'll see something like that.  First round picks generally succeed at a higher rate than other rounds.

What is incontrovertibly true is that we must draft better in the first four rounds.  At all positions.  Our first four rounds need to be wins, every year.

This is an extremely flawed way of looking at it. As stated in my post, 50 day 2 wrs were drafted from 2022-2018. Being generous, I logged 13 of those as hits. That’s about 1/4. It’s even less for day 3. Saying “look diggs was a round 5 wr!” Adds nothing to the conversation. It’s like the people who spam Tom Brady was a 6th rounder. Is it possible? Yes, obviously. Is it likely? No, not at all. The plan cannot be get lucky and find the next diggs 

[BrianS]

3 minutes ago, Panthers8969 said:

This is an extremely flawed way of looking at it. As stated in my post, 50 day 2 wrs were drafted from 2022-2018. Being generous, I logged 13 of those as hits. That’s about 1/4. It’s even less for day 3. Saying “look diggs was a round 5 wr!” Adds nothing to the conversation. It’s like the people who spam Tom Brady was a 6th rounder. Is it possible? Yes, obviously. Is it likely? No, not at all. The plan cannot be get lucky and find the next diggs 

That's not what I said, at all.  What I said, exactly, was "Here are the top 25 catchers this year.  Draft round has little to do with success, except that the first round is better at every position".

If you want to talk about flawed, your way certainly seems more flawed to me.  Looking at draft success over five years eliminates a massive chunk of successful NFL receivers from your view.  Good receivers have 10 year careers.  Good receivers can also be TE's.

It's universally true that the more you limit the pool of data, the less likely your statistics are representative.  The larger the pool, the more likely your statistics are representative.  I suppose that I could have looked at the all time most successful list and pulled data from that.  What would that look like?  I don't know, I'm not interested.

[Panthers8969]

10 minutes ago, BrianS said:

That's not what I said, at all.  What I said, exactly, was "Here are the top 25 catchers this year.  Draft round has little to do with success, except that the first round is better at every position".

If you want to talk about flawed, your way certainly seems more flawed to me.  Looking at draft success over five years eliminates a massive chunk of successful NFL receivers from your view.  Good receivers have 10 year careers.  Good receivers can also be TE's.

It's universally true that the more you limit the pool of data, the less likely your statistics are representative.  The larger the pool, the more likely your statistics are representative.  I suppose that I could have looked at the all time most successful list and pulled data from that.  What would that look like?  I don't know, I'm not interested.

1. Posting the list of top receivers just proves late round picks CAN HIT and speaks nothing of probability, which was a core theme of my OP.

2. I agree, 5 years does exclude people. It was a somewhat arbitrary number chosen bc I) 5 is clean ii) over 30 wrs were drafted during this time, meaning the sample is recognized as statistically significant iii) I don’t have an unlimited amount of time to go back to 1960 Iv) the modern nfl is different from where it was 10 years ago and college is different too. The more recent rounds are also the most pertinent.

3. The conclusion (that it’s unlikely a day 2 wr pans out) would almost certainly be unchained even if I went back X years. Maybe the average changes to 28%, etc. it’s still unlikely whenever you aggregate multiple draft classes to derive conclusions. Of course, not every class is equal though - this would play into the “luck” element 

Edited November 8, 2023 by Panthers8969

[rayzor]

14 hours ago, tukafan21 said:

honestly i have no idea what or how to fix this mess so that we finish up well this year and/or have a respectable year next year. 

and i don't know that anyone in that FO does either. 

for all the centuries of experience this coaching staff has, they're acting like all their experience was coaching JV football.

and i don't think a one of these guys in the FO knows how to correct what went wrong or if they can even figure out what went wrong or where they went wrong. 

all we're going to see the next couple years is desperate reactions to bad decisions.

i have no faith whatsoever in this franchise and i'm never going to believe any word that they have it figured out until i see us winning. every decision and acquisition they make is going to have me going...

"you think this will work?

"

[KSpan]

I think their plan was that Bryce would somehow elevate everyone with his 'point guard's abilities, as stated by Tepper, and that they're still hoping that magically happens.

Beyond that, they have no tangible plan. We'll see how things look as FA approaches.

[Soul Rebel]

HIggins or Pittman in FA

Best available speed/spacing/route running WR in R2. There will be first round talent available when we pick in the 2nd. This class is looooooaded. Five for sure first rounders and potentially another one or two sneak in.

Realistic targets: Troy Franklin, Xavier Worthy or JaLynn Polk

[Stingray3030]

19 hours ago, 45catfan said:

We'll go with the old tried and true Panthers method, draft one in the 2nd round.

Only edit I have for this post - we will draft the wrong one in the 2nd round.  I wanna like Mingo - but we coulda had Rashee Rice, Marvin Mims, Tank Dell, or Josh Downs

[Stingray3030]

6 minutes ago, Soul Rebel said:

HIggins or Pittman in FA

Best available speed/spacing/route running WR in R2. There will be first round talent available when we pick in the 2nd. This class is looooooaded. Five for sure first rounders and potentially another one or two sneak in.

Realistic targets: Troy Franklin, Xavier Worthy or JaLynn Polk

I just hope we get it right this year - we normally miss on the 2nd round WR pick

[Basbear]

6 hours ago, rayzor said:

honestly i have no idea what or how to fix this mess so that we finish up well this year and/or have a respectable year next year. 

and i don't know that anyone in that FO does either. 

for all the centuries of experience this coaching staff has, they're acting like all their experience was coaching JV football.

and i don't think a one of these guys in the FO knows how to correct what went wrong or if they can even figure out what went wrong or where they went wrong. 

all we're going to see the next couple years is desperate reactions to bad decisions.

i have no faith whatsoever in this franchise and i'm never going to believe any word that they have it figured out until i see us winning. every decision and acquisition they make is going to have me going...

"you think this will work?

"

 

 

If young can not elevate the team like a franchise QB does, then there are no real solutions. 

 

 

 

[Camp Fodder]

22 hours ago, Basbear said:

Sign  Evans, Pittman, or Higgins to some 5 year 88 Million overpay and use the 2nd rounder on WR as well. 

This. Plus try and get a LG in FA if possible and move Ickey to guard. BC at LT is possible as well. Stay pat with Brice and Andy next year. Draft a QB in round 1 in 2025 and make Brice the backup

[Basbear]

12 minutes ago, Camp Fodder said:

This. Plus try and get a LG in FA if possible and move Ickey to guard. BC at LT is possible as well. Stay pat with Brice and Andy next year. Draft a QB in round 1 in 2025 and make Brice the backup

Just soooo much to do for the 2024 season, hate I had to start thinking of it mid-2023.

 

Saddest part is panthers have to keep monitoring college QBs....

[CmC2k]

You gotta get one of the big fish in either Higgins or Pittman. Then snag another solid contributor like a KJ Osborn or a Tyler Boyd. Combine a pair of them with AT, Mingo, and Viska and you'd have a WR core that can actually be effective. That would open up our options with our high 2nd round pick to either take a talent that has fallen in the draft or being able to trade back so we can recoup some assets we lost during the Bryce trade and allow us to build some depth to this team. 

[CRA]

8 hours ago, KSpan said:

I think their plan was that Bryce would somehow elevate everyone with his 'point guard's abilities, as stated by Tepper, and that they're still hoping that magically happens.

Beyond that, they have no tangible plan. We'll see how things look as FA approaches.

I remember Tepper bragging about how you could save money all over the offense with Bryce Young at QB and that’s why they took him lol. 

Just talking the passing era, even with someone like Tom Brady who some say got by without a stud WR often on the outside…..he had elite slot and TE talent.  Possibly a top 3 all timer in Gronk.  

Peyton, Montana, Mahomes, whoever…everyone needs studs. 

[mickeye76]

I would look at young 2nd tier WR's in FA.  Mooney in Chicago or Gabe Davis in Buffalo. Both guys have been playing 2nd fiddle and might be ready for more. One or the other as a target in FA. We have to hope Mingo becomes what Smitty saw. Then in the draft. My targets are 2nd gen guys Rice and Moose.  One has ties here and the other is the Prince to the Rice legacy. Both have the raw skills to succeed. Not correlated to the original question but a backup young RB should be a target. Miles and Chubba are fine but a dart throw lottery pick in the mid rounds RB is necessary. We need a committee cause we don't have a bell cow RB. Youth at RB is and always will be a asset.  I like Blackshear but he might be better at PR/KR than as rotational RB.  We need to throw everything against the wall and see what sticks. TMJ and DJ Chark are not it. I would like to keep TMJ but I have doubts he can do it the hard way. We need rookies willing to work to earn they spots. A RT in the draft that could also fit as a guard strengthens the oline. Tremble can work. So TE is not the priority much like the previous draft when folks wanted to use premium picks on position. We still don't have that luxury. Fixing the offense is gonna take picks and FA effort. The defense is close despite a scheme change that I felt may have slowed progress. Square pegs for round holes type of thing. Regardless we are two years away.  Fitt needs to go. His drafts have been abysmal.  I'd give Reich the same length of rope i gave Fitt.  A couple years and a hard look at the results.