Post-Draft: Gantt sets A stage, not THE stage. Perhaps Reset Your Expectations

[TD alt]

Oh, the high expectations after a draft. Keep your expectations low, people. Darin Gantt's latest "Ask The Old Guy" gives life to one of those lessons about pro football reality as a fan:

"Rasheed Walker was a three-year starter at left tackle for the Packers, so Freeling is going to have to work. Hunter's got another big 'un in front of him in Bobby Brown III and a different kind of defensive tackle in Tershawn Wharton. Chris Brazzell II's got a lot of traffic at his position. Zakee Wheatley has to be better than the chronically underappreciated Nick Scott, and Sam Hecht is a fifth-round rookie at the hardest position on the line to play, who probably doesn't have immediate positional flexibility, and a solid free agent addition in Luke Fortner in front of him.

"Fans generally love their draft class as soon as it arrives, because there is no evidence to the contrary yet. Once guys get on the field, the reality begins to creep in, and the seasoned among you remember that if you get three or four good players out of a draft, that was an amazing draft."

https://www.panthers.com/news/ask-the-old-guy-things-looking-up-after-the-draft-monroe-freeling-luke-kuechly-bryce-young-derrick-brown

Don't get crazy. Winning the draft (or the offseason BTW) on paper always leads to good feelings and great expectations, especially when you seemingly succeeded the season before, but let's remember that the Panthers are very much a work in progress. Team building takes time. If we get a couple of starters out of the draft, it's a good draft, but three or four would be an amazing draft, and anything more than that is actually sensational--even if entails a few multiple high end rotational players along with three starters.

Moreover, kind of within that same vein, the coaches have to let the kids off the chain. Remember the coach-speak of past coaches about competition that is anything but because coaches have their notions about veteran experience? Not saying that they're necessarily wrong, but sometimes I think their reluctance to put the young guys out there is based somewhat in dogma or possibly fear because big stakes are on the line (e.g., their jobs). It can be frustrating to say the least, but the coaches are supposed to know best.

Again, I say all of this so that we can remember to temper expectations and keep them within the realm of reality. It's like telling your mind to think of it as something akin to under-promising and over-delivering. Leave room to be pleasantly surprised for the best case scenario, but be cognizant that that rarely happens.

I would think at this point, most of us should be able to recognize growth when we see it, and sometimes that growth doesn't manifest itself in the form of immediate supremacy, but a setting of the stage for long term dominance for years to come. It seems like we're on track for an emergence by 2028 or 2029. We still have huge questions, but by 2029, hopefully we will take our seat at the table of the perennial contenders in the NFL.

 

[bythenbrs]

In another post, Snow says about three years before you can properly grade a rookie class.  Sounds about right…

[coffee]

He's correct.  I'm rewatching some of the 2015 games and it's amazing to see the caliber of players on that team across the board.  We are currently just in the "trying to get there" stage.

However, it does seem that we are moving in the correct direction finally and we still have the advantage of a weak division, so we may get to have another fun season despite not being there yet.

[MHS831]

If you draft players who can push the starters in competitions, then you have depth.  Gantt's focus is Week 1, 2026.  That is never my view.  if your focus is on talent alone, and if you do not consider the salary cap, then this is accurate.  If a player making $25m per season can be traded or not renewed because you have a player on a rookie contract who can do the job almost as well--before the maturation and experience occurs, then you may take a small step back for a moment so that you can leap forward later.  About Walker--LTs have done pretty well in Green Bay's system.  He is a good pass protector, and so is Freeling. About DT--they are often rotational.  Hunter will still play and he will improve with experience.  The WR field is not that crowded.  If you have 5 different WRs who can play, they usually do.  Hecht might have the best opportunity to take a starting job, and he is a fifth rounder.  

So you look at the cap and the idea is to start as many on rookie contracts as possible.  Does that mean to start rookies day 1.  Nope.

 

Edited 18 hours ago by MHS831

[XClown1986]

I understand tempering expectations, but there are some issues with his points.

Walker was a 3 year starter, but Green Bay let him walk and no other team was quick to snatch him up. That says something. Freeling will compete to start.

With Hunter, we rotate our linemen and even 5th round pick Cam Jackson played some meaningful snaps last year. Both Brown III and Wharton have underwhelmed since we picked them up. Hunter is a run plugger that we have needed. Hunter will play early, even if he isn't the "starter."

Brazzell was described as one of Canales' favorite prospects in the draft and he has a speed element we have been missing. I think Canales is going to have plays drawn up with Brazzell on the field just out of pure excitement. It will be up to Brazzell to prove he can handle it, though. If he can, he will play.

As far as our secondary picks, yeah they have to earn their stripes and Evero tends to lean on veterans. So they might take time, but if they can show they can play, they will see the field. Smith-Wade and Ransom did.

Sam Hecht simply has to show he can handle the mental side of the NFL game. If he can, he is in a direct competition with Fortner, who's also relatively young, but also on his 3rd NFL team and doesn't have the power profile of Hecht. 

I can appreciate that Gantt wants to pour cold water on what was perceived as an impactful draft, but facts are facts.

Edited 17 hours ago by XClown1986

[LinvilleGorge]

If you have a sub-.500 team and your 1st and 2nd rounders (honestly, I'd go as deep as 3rd rpund) aren't getting very significant playing time in their rookie season you done fuged up.

[rebelrouser]

Agree with the temper expectations part; disagree w/ the rookies won't be playing much part.  We will have a better first round pick than 19 in 2027, and I hope we use it on a qb.  

[mrcompletely11]

2 minutes ago, rebelrouser said:

Agree with the temper expectations part; disagree w/ the rookies won't be playing much part.  We will have a better first round pick than 19 in 2027, and I hope we use it on a qb.  

I think that is locked in stone as we will regress back to the norm in single score games.  What we did last year is not sustainable at all.  

 

Every show on fnz this week had numerous segments about being "disrespected" by Vegas for their win total and odds to win the division. Those dummies couldnt understand about the one score game stat, BY is still our qb and our offense has been putrid for 3 years now.   Vegas doesnt set lines from a disrespect stand point.

[TD alt]

51 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

If you have a sub-.500 team and your 1st and 2nd rounders (honestly, I'd go as deep as 3rd rpund) aren't getting very significant playing time in their rookie season you done fuged up.

I mean, I don't think being sub .500 has anything to do with it. A good draft is 2 starters and good depth. Three or more starters and you've obviously excelled. 

On an off note, I've heard plenty analysts say this past week that you draft a QB when you want one, not when you need one, and they said that good GMs have not only said that, but they've proven that. So, QBs are probably an exception to that rule.

[Sup]

I'm expecting 7-8 wins. I think the draft was great but I don't think that translates into more wins in 26.

[OldhamA]

Quote

Zakee Wheatley has to be better than the chronically underappreciated Nick Scott, and Sam Hecht is a fifth-round rookie at the hardest position on the line to play,

No, Darin, you're better than that.

Nick Scott is absolutely terrible - I could put together a 30 minute lowlights tape of his time as a Panther with minimal effort.

OT is the hardest position to play on the OLine, that's why they go in the first and second round. 

I'm fine with you being set out by the Panthers to temper expectations, but don't outright lie.

Edited 15 hours ago by OldhamA

[LinvilleGorge]

1 hour ago, TD alt said:

I mean, I don't think being sub .500 has anything to do with it. A good draft is 2 starters and good depth. Three or more starters and you've obviously excelled. 

It has a lot to do with it. There's less PT available for rookies on good teams because they're good teams due to having better rosters.

[KillerKat]

I mean, what fanbase has high expectations when you have a QB like Bryce leading your team?

[NAS]

Fug that, we're winning the SuperBowl