Mike Lombardi discusses Newton, Rivera

[Mr. Scot]

Confession: I'm not a big Mike Lombardi fan. A few years back, Lombardi notoriously, repeatedly and confidently predicted Ron Rivera was being fired at season's end. Nobody else reported it, yet Lombardi all but guaranteed it.

He wasn't.

So why link this article by Lombardi from The Athletic?

Well, because it's relevant to a lot of the current discussion. And as far as the quality or credibility of it, that's a judgment I leave to you.

The big question in Carolina isn't whether Newton will be back, it's whether Rivera will be

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The Carolina Panthers’ chances of making the playoffs came to a screeching halt on Sunday after a brutal loss to the two-win Atlanta Falcons. The 5-5 Panthers were dominated from start to finish. Kyle Allen, their undrafted quarterback out of Houston, was a nice story a few weeks ago, when he first assumed the starting role after Cam Newton’s injury, but now he seems overwhelmed and completely unable to lead the Panthers’ offense. Changes are coming in Charlotte — and they won’t involve Cam Newton.

If you utter the words David Tepper to someone from Wall Street or anyone involved in the investment banking profession, they’ll immediately begin discussing him with complete reverence. In business circles the hedge fudge manager (and current owner of the Panthers) is a God-like figure, a legend who has amassed incredible wealth by making smart, calculated decisions. He’s described as a brilliant, regular guy from Jersey who loves sports, competes with high intensity and always wants to excel. Tepper is the kind of person who would be great to sit next to at the local tavern, or in a board room where he’s staying ahead of the competition by analyzing data and tactics. When he bought the Panthers from Jerry Richardson in 2018, Tepper brought those high praises with him to Charlotte. But Panthers fans have not witnessed any real action from him— yet.

Tepper is in his second season of owning the team, and so far he has been rather low key, not messing with his football operation during his brief tenure. But knowing his analytical background and the way he evaluates the strengths and weaknesses of companies, Tepper has been amassing notes, and soon his skills as a CEO will shine. Hang tight, Panthers fans.

 

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Many might think that his first action will be a decision on the future of Cam Newton, his currently injured former MVP quarterback who will miss the rest of the season. But there’s no chance that Tepper has the Cam situation as number one on his to-do list. Tepper would never put the cart before the horse, and making any decision on Newton will only be done after Tepper decides on the future of his front office and coaching staff. He has not extended the contract of any significant football person, and most coaches on staff have the feeling that they are in limbo, with their fates tied to the  outcome of the season. The Panthers are going to miss the playoffs, so does Tepper clean house and save the Newton decision for the next regime? The popular narrative that Newton carries a prohibitive $19 million cap number next season will be irrelevant to Tepper, as he knows the value of a top-level quarterback is above $30 million and that dumping Cam without a plan is not smart. And we all know Tepper is smart. Can we please stop talking about Cam’s salary? The decision on Cam is more about medical than financial, more about fit than funds.

Tepper bought the team from Richardson, a former NFL player who hired current General Manager Marty Hurney and head coach Ron Rivera. Hurney is on his second stint with the team after being let go following the disappointing 2012 season. Back in ‘12, the Panthers’ cap situation was a mess. They had talented players, but they were upside down. After giving former quarterback Jake Delhomme a massive contract with no off-set clauses and then cutting him in 2010, Hurney was in deep trouble. He was brought back after Richardson fired Dave Gettleman (now the Giants’ GM) in 2017 for having a cantankerous relationship with the players as he tried to clean up the cap mess he inherited from Hurney.

Even though Gettleman was a part of the 15-1 Super Bowl-losing team in 2015, and he had to deal with many players from the first Hurney era, he was let go by Richardson. Richardson was old school — he felt comfortable with Hurney and wanted him back, not caring about the past mistakes. At first, Hurney came in as the interim GM, but everyone in the NFL knew that he was going to be made full time as he was best friends with Richardson. (Editor’s note: Hurney was placed on paid leave as the interim GM on February 6, 2018, as the league looked into harassment claims from his ex-wife; he was reinstated the week after when the league found no wrongdoing, and he was hired as the full-time General Manager of the Panthers the week after that.)

 

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Rivera has been in charge since 2011, with three seasons of double-digit wins, four playoff seasons and one Super Bowl appearance. At only 57 years old, Rivera seems to have a few more quality years remaining as a head coach. There have been some whispers in NFL circles that Rivera might walk away, recharge then re-emerge. Riverboat Ron has always taken some weird risks with his decision-making, so having an owner like Tepper might be good for Rivera in terms of marginalizing his decisions. Rivera has done an excellent job of keeping the Panthers competitive during their transition from Newton to free-agent starter Kyle Allen. The second-year quarterback started fast, making throws down the field and stretching the defense, something that was hard for Newton because of his shoulder injury. But the more tape opposing defensive coordinators have evaluated on Allen, the less he has been able to throw the ball down the field. In his first start, the Week 3 game against the Cardinals, he averaged 10 yards per attempt on his passes; now he is below 7.00 for the season — which is not good. Add in the fact that Allen struggles to hold onto the ball in the pocket (six fumbles, four lost) and it becomes more and more apparent that Allen is not the long-term solution to the Panthers’ quarterback situation. Why do people want to send Newton off to another team when his current team needs him as much as anyone?

Having running back Christian McCaffrey takes significant pressure off Allen, but the offense often relies solely on McCaffrey’s running and receiving skills. If McCaffrey keeps up his current pace of carries, he will have over 320 carries for the season, which might help the Panthers win a few more games games but will harm his impact for future seasons. Recently the Panthers added running back Mike Davis, formerly of the Bears who might help take the burden off of McCaffrey, but with just six games to go and each one more important than the last, it’s hard to imagine McCaffrey getting any “load management” rest.

The Panthers have six games remaining with one against the Falcons (who just humiliated them at home) and two with the South-leading New Orleans Saints. Currently, at 5-5, they rank ninth in the playoff order — meaning anything short of winning five of the next six won’t be good enough in a jam-packed NFC race. But qualifying for the playoffs right now even matter to Tepper? Someone as smart as Tepper, with his  background in studying companies, knows the scoreboard is not always the best indication of a franchise’s direction and future.

 

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The number one question Tepper must answer right now is not about Cam, it’s about Ron and Marty, and whether those two are the future of the Panthers. Can both men operate entirely in a world that will feature high-tech sophistication, cutting edge technology, and a new order of business? Tepper is not going to shy away from making hard, unpopular decisions as his life’s work has centered around making the hardest of hard choices. Tepper also knows it’s much harder to change people than train people; therefore, he might feel starting fresh is the best approach.

The 2019 season might be out of reach, but as far as the future is concerned, Panthers fans should not worry. Tepper has never failed at anything in his life. He also knows that running a successful hedge fund requires all of the same skills needed to run a football team. In that regard, Tepper is well ahead of the game.

The real question is not where Cam will play next year or who will be the starting quarterback in Charlotte. It’s how will Tepper rebuild the Panthers — and who will be running his show come next year?

 

[Moo Daeng]

There is nothing to really question with what he said since it seems to be geared to those who dont know anything about the situation. Theres nothing new and no predictions.

[weyco2000]

I'd make a copy of this and post it on every locker... 6 games left, just give up because there's no fuging hope? Atlanta whipped our ass because the had nothing to lose and they knew this was one of our layups. Let's see how we respond when its do or die, who shows up and makes a statement. Keep Pounding!

[raz]

i'd be much happier with newton here if ronco wasn't

[JawnyBlaze]

Just speculation like everything else that’s come out about the situation, but he makes a lot more sense than everything else so far too - national and local. 

[ickmule]

Rivera will be here in 2020. Listening to FNZ this morning and they had some guy one there, not sure who he was, but he said that the LF surgery recovery period is 11 months on average. If that is the case RR will be given a pass and will be here next season. 

[djp14]

8 minutes ago, ickmule said:

Rivera will be here in 2020. Listening to FNZ this morning and they had some guy one there, not sure who he was, but he said that the LF surgery recovery period is 11 months on average. If that is the case RR will be given a pass and will be here next season. 

Cam hasn't even had the surgery yet (assuming he has it).  If he's not gonna be able to play next year, what's the point in keeping Ron around?

 

 

 

[ickmule]

2 minutes ago, djp14 said:

Cam hasn't even had the surgery yet (assuming he has it).  If he's not gonna be able to play next year, what's the point in keeping Ron around?

 

 

 

I agree he shouldn’t be kept, but I believe Cam being out and it appears that they like  KA that Tepper will give RR one more season to turn it around.  I do believe that all of that will depend on how the team responds the remainder of the year.   

[trueblade]

47 minutes ago, djp14 said:

Cam hasn't even had the surgery yet (assuming he has it).  If he's not gonna be able to play next year, what's the point in keeping Ron around?

That time table (surgery soon + 11 month recovery) also has Newton missing almost the entire 2020 season and being a free agent in 2021. Assuming this is the case, can you really justify a 20 mil cap hit for a guy who isn't likely to see the field and will be a FA?

[Fox007]

Ron should have been let go years ago...it's a non question if Tepper is actually anything near a competent NFL owner. Hedge funds and all that other bullshit mean nothing thus far in regards to running a sports team.

[TheMostInterestingMan]

Mmmm. ‘Hedge fudge’ 

[Ivan The Awesome]

I much rather keep Newton and get an actual staff that will help him than this current one that has run its course. 

[Moo Daeng]

First and foremost is getting a GM to change any course. Wouldn't surprise me if that was being looked in to now.

I hope.

[TheSpecialJuan]

Good stuff, this was a much better read than his book.