Breaking Down the DT Play in 2019

[MHS831]

PANTHER'S DTs in 2019: AS BAD AS IT GETS

To me, nothing reveals how RR's bias and lack of analytics is demonstrated more than the moronic use of his DTs last season.  Most agree that the DT position was perhaps a worse problem than the OL last season--allowing an average of 5.2 yards per rushing attempt. 

............................An Analysis of our DT' season and why we sucked:.........................

THE FREE AGENT SAVIOR: GERALD McCOY

McCoy  should have taken Panther fans to dinner and a movie before he did to us what he did.  He was just looking for sacks--watch his film--there is little gap awareness.  His stats?  15 solo Tackles, 5 sacks.  Most people say, "5 sacks for a DT?  That is great".  McCoy took 63% of the snaps on defense and averaged less than 1 solo tackle per game--8.5 fewer solo tackles than his career average.   That is what $8m buys you in free agency.  We should have signed Hatfield instead (get it? Hatfield and McCoy?)

POE: NOT AS BAD AS McCOY

Everyone rips D. Poe, who has about the same salary as McCoy .  From the NT position in 5 fewer games, Poe had 15 solo tackles and 4 sacks--nearly identical to McCoy.  Poe played only 36% of the snap counts while McCoy played 63%.   NTs make fewer tackles and get fewer sacks. While Poe's numbers are not worth the $9m price tag he carries--he OUTPLAYED McCoy from the NT position by nearly doubling McCoy's production from the NT position, if you average the # of plays/production.  In case you are interested, Star was making more $$ in Buffalo but had less production than Poe.  Star took 40% of the snaps and had 12 solo tackles and 2 sacks in 16 games.  What happens to the hog mollies once they get paid? 

LOVE:  BREAKING UP IS HARD TO DO

Kyle Love played in 15 games ($1.3m salary) and made 8 tackles, none were sacks.  He was the most unproductive DT we had.  He was a non factor for the Panthers.  He played in 37% of the snap counts on the season.  Career over at 33--he was a good value here.

BIG VERN:  THE BUTLER DID IT

Perhaps the most hated DT on the roster over the past few years has been first-rounder Vernon Butler.  However, in on only 40% of the snaps (McCoy was in 23% more), Butler outplayed McCoy with many fewer opportunities.  Butler had  22 solo tackles---6 sacks.  So the fact that RR played McCoy more than Butler shows that RR a) Loves him some veterans (bias), b) does not use data to make decisions, and c) is not the defensive genius he thinks he is.   Remember Vern's flipping off fans?  Can you imagine how frustrating that was?  I am wondering if that was not meant for RR more than fans.

RIVERBOAT RON:  SO GLAD THAT SHIP HAS SAILED

We all know that RR's use of Cam has probably expedited Cam's eventual retirement.  We feared that his riding CMC would do the same--but we may have not understood that his stupidity in terms of the DT rotation could have led to Luke's retirement.  McCoy was here as a Buccaneer (his words, and we put a C on his chest) trying to steal a few million bucks from some sucker before he retires. He was padding his stats for Canton--so he was focusing on sacks.  He was not stuffing the run or keeping blockers off his hall of fame LB--he was out for McCoy.  Ron let him use us, and when we could not stop the run, Ron could not bench McCoy.

Personally, I think someone is going to grab Butler in free agency and have a good player.  That is how RR hurt this team--never developing talent--trusting veterans who were looking out for #1--not Cam--themselves.

WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED?

1.  It seems that our DTs tend to decline after getting a big payday.

2.  Ron's bias for veterans and perhaps his preconceived opinion of Butler caused him to start the wrong 3/5 tech.

3. Dontari Poe was not great, but in 11 games he outplayed Star Lotulelei in 16 games. 

4. We will never know how much the DT lack of play (5.2 yards per rush- who does that?) contributed to Luke's decision.

5. We need to move on from all of our DTs.  If we keep anyone, it should be BUTLER.

6.  DT is a bigger need than OL.  At least we have some developmental players on the OL.

7.  In free agency, you do not necessarily get more by spending more.  Do your homework, Marty, because this is a train wreck.

8.  We need young, aggressive, high motor DTs. 

9.  Their job is not to sack the QB when they are giving up 5.2 yards per rushing attempt.   Some disciplined DTs would be nice.

10.  DTs are (BY FAR) our biggest need.  We need 4 of them.

 

Toodles

 

 

 

 

 

[Panthera onca]

Excellent analysis. The DL seemed to just be going through the motions last season. They were incredibly disappointing and Rivera just let it happen.

[Mage]

How is this excellent analysis?  You can’t measure a DT by the amount of tackles they get. 

I’m not saying McCoy was great or anything last year, but tackles #s for a DT isn’t all that telling.  I mean Aaron freakin Donald only had 29 solo tackles.  It means nothing.

[Tbe]

You forgot to add that this was the most expensive D line in the nfl. Thanks Ron and Marty!
 

Honestly, given the price tag and production Ron should have cut one of these vets mid season to send a message. Of course he wasn’t going to do that cause “ma’vets”.

Anyone who thinks Cam + a new OL in the draft equals a good team next year is crazy. You can’t win if you can’t stop anyone. We need 4 D tackles and we’re not getting them this off season. 
 

This team will need to score on every drive just to keep up.
 

 

[Mr. Scot]

I agree with most of this but I'm not sold on the notion of Star Lotulelei being outplayed by anybody on our team.

What he does for a team doesn't show up in stats. I'd add Buffalo's defense was significantly better than ours, and Star was one of the reasons (a big reason, in fact).

[lightsout]

To be fair, I think the defensive system and what we were asking of our DL put us in bad positions along the front 7 all year. Look at the Redskins game where we got torched by Guice all game.
 

 

 

At 0:14 in, you see us in what LOOKS like a 3-4, but if you look closer we have Irvin as a stand up end on the far side, and Mario near side as a stand up. Bradberry is LB depth behind Irvin, so it essentially becomes a 5-3 look with standup ends. Not bad for a 2 TE, singleback set, but it's the roles we're asking guys to play. The DL is slanting to their left gap (towards the boundary, with twins to the field. Presnap showed two TE to the boundary, which might explain this but still...) with the LBs floating back across the grain. It's like we're hoping to confuse blocking angles by doing this if it's a play to the field and give us an advantage if it's to the boundary, but it fails and leads to a huge lane. I never understood slanting your DL to one side or the other on any formation outside of an obvious pass situation because I think you're hurting run responsibilities, and that is what happens. The DL absolutely occupy bodies (their primary responsibility in run responsibility. Don't let guys get second level, maintain your gap), but the LBs (Luke, as I'll explain) are left running into a well blocked belly variation play away from the DL slant. They pull the backside guard to kick out the end man on the line, which ends up being Shaq because he rotates down in the event of a sweep as a corner and rolled down safety are covering the twins. This would give a defensive advantage in the event of outside run, but since it is inside, that pulling guard can come down the line, identify Shaq, kick him out, freeing up the guard to handle McCoy, tackle to handle Addison, and the TE is going to help on Addison to give the tackle leverage to wash him inside, then TE moves up on Luke. Bradberry is last line of defense far side, and he gets caught with dead feet because he sees the run go away from him, but he HAS to be coming downhill in that direction. He doesn't, Guice gets a big gain. If Shaq never rotates down, Luke is roaming free and has a chance to make a play.

This is just ONE example. This was seen in nearly every game, or some variation of it. DL slants, guys get pulled out of position, and we're lining up in ways that open us up to be easily blocked.


Let's look at another play and see Kyle Love not move his feet properly. 1:00 mark.

It's a basic zone concept to the defense's right. 3-4 alignment with Reid playing the weakside inside LB spot. Love is in a 3-tech, MAYBE a hair inside of that. Regardless, what he does here causes an issue and creates the gap. He goes inside his guard. The zone is going outside of him. Guard can literally just stand there with him and not do anything but shield. Tackle runs free to Reid who is waiting, not getting downhill. Luke is unblocked here luckily and saves what would be a bigger run, still costs us about 5-6 yards. If Love is attacking the outside shoulder of his guard, he can feel where that guard is trying to take him and maintain his gap, which would lead to either a) the tackle having to help on him or b) Love being in position to slow or stop the run.


And another instance of bad DL leading to bad LB play. 1:11.

Nickle with a safety walked up in the box showing blitz. Can't tell the DL personnel, but they're lined up in a 4 man front with the field side being a standup end. Twins to the field, two TE look (trips receiver motioned over presnap to stack on the TE) to the boundary. You have a corner and safety out there. Who gets outside contain here? If you guessed the corner, you'd be right. Nobody tells the far side DE (Addison maybe?). He goes outside. WHOEVER THE HELL is the 3-tech then causes a bigger issue. He stands up on the snap and gets THROWN inside. It's ugly. It's stuff you expect from a middle school DL. What is the play? Zone to the twins. Now, why is the backside the problem? Because Shaq is too good on the play. He recognizes the play, recognizes the nose doing his job, sees play-side A gap open, sees his chance to get a tackle for loss. Great play by Shaq being decisive and honestly taking a good angle. Because that 3-tech gets thrown so easily off the snap, that guard gets a hand on Shaq and opens the cutback lane up for Guice who gets 7 when at best, he should've got back to the line and that's it.



It's more and more of the same sort of stuff every game. You get the picture.

[Mr. Scot]

I'm reminded of one of the most ridiculous comments we've heard regarding this past season.

Specifically, Rivera talking about how we couldn't run the defense he wanted to run because the opposing offenses were dictating that we run something else.

This from the guy who, when he first came here, said it was a big deal for us to dictate to other teams rather than vice versa.

[Rags]

1 hour ago, Mr. Scot said:

I agree with most of this but I'm not sold on the notion of Star Lotulelei being outplayed by anybody on our team.

What he does for a team doesn't show up in stats. I'd add Buffalo's defense was significantly better than ours, and Star was one of the reasons (a big reason, in fact).

Bills fans over on Reddit said he didn't start playing well til about halfway through the season, and that he was grossly overpaid 

 

That said I still think Star was a big reason our run d fell off. Hes s big man who holds the PoA. 

[WarHeel]

2 hours ago, MHS831 said:

PANTHER'S DTs in 2019: AS BAD AS IT GETS

To me, nothing reveals how RR's bias and lack of analytics is demonstrated more than the moronic use of his DTs last season.  Most agree that the DT position was perhaps a worse problem than the OL last season--allowing an average of 5.2 yards per rushing attempt. 

............................An Analysis of our DT' season and why we sucked:.........................

THE FREE AGENT SAVIOR: GERALD McCOY

McCoy  should have taken Panther fans to dinner and a movie before he did to us what he did.  He was just looking for sacks--watch his film--there is little gap awareness.  His stats?  15 solo Tackles, 5 sacks.  Most people say, "5 sacks for a DT?  That is great".  McCoy took 63% of the snaps on defense and averaged less than 1 solo tackle per game--8.5 fewer solo tackles than his career average.   That is what $8m buys you in free agency.  We should have signed Hatfield instead (get it? Hatfield and McCoy?)

POE: NOT AS BAD AS McCOY

Everyone rips D. Poe, who has about the same salary as McCoy .  From the NT position in 5 fewer games, Poe had 15 solo tackles and 4 sacks--nearly identical to McCoy.  Poe played only 36% of the snap counts while McCoy played 63%.   NTs make fewer tackles and get fewer sacks. While Poe's numbers are not worth the $9m price tag he carries--he OUTPLAYED McCoy from the NT position by nearly doubling McCoy's production from the NT position, if you average the # of plays/production.  In case you are interested, Star was making more $$ in Buffalo but had less production than Poe.  Star took 40% of the snaps and had 12 solo tackles and 2 sacks in 16 games.  What happens to the hog mollies once they get paid? 

LOVE:  BREAKING UP IS HARD TO DO

Kyle Love played in 15 games ($1.3m salary) and made 8 tackles, none were sacks.  He was the most unproductive DT we had.  He was a non factor for the Panthers.  He played in 37% of the snap counts on the season.  Career over at 33--he was a good value here.

BIG VERN:  THE BUTLER DID IT

Perhaps the most hated DT on the roster over the past few years has been first-rounder Vernon Butler.  However, in on only 40% of the snaps (McCoy was in 23% more), Butler outplayed McCoy with many fewer opportunities.  Butler had  22 solo tackles---6 sacks.  So the fact that RR played McCoy more than Butler shows that RR a) Loves him some veterans (bias), b) does not use data to make decisions, and c) is not the defensive genius he thinks he is.   Remember Vern's flipping off fans?  Can you imagine how frustrating that was?  I am wondering if that was not meant for RR more than fans.

RIVERBOAT RON:  SO GLAD THAT SHIP HAS SAILED

We all know that RR's use of Cam has probably expedited Cam's eventual retirement.  We feared that his riding CMC would do the same--but we may have not understood that his stupidity in terms of the DT rotation could have led to Luke's retirement.  McCoy was here as a Buccaneer (his words, and we put a C on his chest) trying to steal a few million bucks from some sucker before he retires. He was padding his stats for Canton--so he was focusing on sacks.  He was not stuffing the run or keeping blockers off his hall of fame LB--he was out for McCoy.  Ron let him use us, and when we could not stop the run, Ron could not bench McCoy.

Personally, I think someone is going to grab Butler in free agency and have a good player.  That is how RR hurt this team--never developing talent--trusting veterans who were looking out for #1--not Cam--themselves.

WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED?

1.  It seems that our DTs tend to decline after getting a big payday.

2.  Ron's bias for veterans and perhaps his preconceived opinion of Butler caused him to start the wrong 3/5 tech.

3. Dontari Poe was not great, but in 11 games he outplayed Star Lotulelei in 16 games. 

4. We will never know how much the DT lack of play (5.2 yards per rush- who does that?) contributed to Luke's decision.

5. We need to move on from all of our DTs.  If we keep anyone, it should be BUTLER.

6.  DT is a bigger need than OL.  At least we have some developmental players on the OL.

7.  In free agency, you do not necessarily get more by spending more.  Do your homework, Marty, because this is a train wreck.

8.  We need young, aggressive, high motor DTs. 

9.  Their job is not to sack the QB when they are giving up 5.2 yards per rushing attempt.   Some disciplined DTs would be nice.

10.  DTs are (BY FAR) our biggest need.  We need 4 of them.

 

Toodles

 

 

 

 

 

Quietly one of our greatest positions of need going into next season.
 

I thought this defense was going to be the stuff of legend in the preseason and I couldn’t have been more wrong. Although KK’s injury didn’t help our case, McCoy and Poe underwhelmed all year and I’m not sold Butler is the future as he conveniently stepped up his game right before FA and don’t even get me started on flipping off the fans.

 

So many holes to fill on this pitiful roster...

[Mr Mojo Risin]

No way we cut or trade KK this season so at the most we'd need 3 new DTs. Pretty sure Poe is still under contract but I think we can save some $$ if we cut him

[45catfan]

I have us drafting at least one, if not two DTs.  Yes, I agree this is a huge need.

[Riverboat Ron]

This is why we need Derrick Brown. KK, Poe and McCoy all over 30 and Butler is unpredictable. McCoy and Butler are free agents and Poe and KK injury prone.

We need to cut the fat and add young talent on both sides of the line.

[SmokinwithWilly]

Curious to your thoughts on Brown vs Kinlaw. They're both top end prospects IMO. Brown has more talent and ability than Kinlaw, but it appears to me that Kinlaw has more drive/work ethic to be perfect like TD had. 

I'm actually leaning Kinlaw over Brown for that reason. That's just not something you can coach I to a player, but it's something you definitely build a team, not just a D, around.

Thoughts from you guys that understand the position better? I fully admit I may be wrong about drive and work ethic, it's just my opinion from reading scouting reports on the two.

[stirs]

Alex, I will answer "what did Olines do every Sunday this past season"