Roster Holes and The Case For Trading Down/Accumulating Draft Picks

[hepcat]

I'm looking at the current roster and players under contract in 2021. There are a ton of holes and a lot of positions that are in need of depth and talent improvement.

Here are the current players under contract:

OFFENSE

QB: Teddy Bridgewater (PJ Walker, Will Grier, Tommy Stevens) - Unless something drastic happens, the Panthers will go into the draft with these QBs. Not happy about it, but it's not a position of dire need.

RB: Christian McCaffrey (Trenton Cannon, Reggie Bonnafon, Rodney Smith) - Aside from maybe bringing back Mike Davis, this position group is set. I doubt with as many other holes this roster has, the RB position will likely not be addressed in FA or in the draft. 

FB: None - I could see Alex Armah being re-signed.

WR: DJ Moore, Robby Anderson (Omar Bayless, Brandon Zylstra, Keith Kirkwood) - With Curtis Samuel likely getting big money elsewhere, WR depth after the top 2 is thin. I could see a free agent WR and a late round WR bring drafted. Low key, I see a guy like Keelan Cole from the Jags as a possible Samuel replacement.

TE: Ian Thomas (Colin Thompson) - Definitely an area in need of improvement. I could see this position being addressed with a vet TE to push Ian Thomas. Jonnu Smith or Jared Cook could be targets here.

LT: Greg Little - Huge area in need of improvement and depth. The team cannot go into 2021 with Little and Daley as the only options at LT, and I'm sure they know that. It's possible Russell Okung is re-signed, unless the Panthers want to throw crazy money at Trent Williams. Terron Armstead is another FA possibility if he is cut from the Saints for cap reasons, which would be an ideal signing with his familiarity with Joe Brady.

LG: Dennis Daley - Another area of huge need. Daley was slated to be the starter at LG before the 2020 season, but I'm not sure he ever did actually start at that position. I think LG should be addressed in the draft. I could see a mid-round draft pick at guard and definitely cheap FAs thrown in the mix as depth.

Center: Matt Paradis - Paradis has caught a lot of flack here but he hasn't been as bad as many think. It's definitely time to add a young center in the draft as a starter of the future. I could see Tyler Larsen being re-signed due to his versatility as a backup plan too.

RG: None - I see John Miller being re-signed here. Rookie talent is badly needed at guard this season.

RT: Trent Scott (Matt Kaskey) - Taylor Moton is most likely being Franchise-Tagged and possibly signed to a long term deal. Moton is one of the best RT's in the NFL and has to be re-signed.

DEFENSE

DE: Brian Burns, Yetur Gross-Matos (Efe Obada, Marquis Haynes, Austin Larkin, Christian Miller) - Depth needed behind two ascending young starters. A vet FA like Haason Reddick is a big name with Rhule connections, he could also play standing up at LB.

DT: Derrick Brown, Zach Kerr (Bravvion Roy) - Depth needed here. Would like to see a cheaper vet DT or Kawaan Short brought back here, with some rookie depth on the practice squad. I have seen big names like Leonard Williams as a possibility here, but I just don't see it happening. Too many other bigger needs. I see a much lower priced vet DT being signed.

OLB: Shaq Thompson  - If Jeremy Chinn is really being moved to safety, there's a big need at LB. Definitely a target for the draft and FA. FA money and draft picks should be spent at LB. KJ Wright is a possibility with connections to Seattle/Scott Fitterer.

MLB: Jermaine Carter - Depending on how the team views Jermaine Carter, with Carter stepping up into a bigger role at the end of 2020, the team might opt to just add depth at MLB. The defense improved once Carter replaced the wildly underperforming Tahir Whitehead. Could also see the team drafting Micah Parsons in the 1st round if he's available.

CB: Donte Jackson, Troy Pride (Corn Elder, Stantley Oliver-Thomas) - There is a big need to upgrade at CB after the defense gave up god knows how many 3rd and long conversions. I could see this position being addressed in FA after the team spent draft picks at CB last season. I could see CB Shaqill Griffin from Seattle being one of the Panthers "big splash" FA signings. Otherwise there is solid depth here.

S: Jeremy Chinn, Juston Burris (Sam Franklin, Kenny Robinson) - If Chinn is definitely being moved to safety full time, I see safety being pretty set. They could add a vet FA to push Franklin and Robinson for backup roles. 

SPECIAL TEAMS

K: Joey Slye - There will definitely be a second kicker brought in as competition.

P: Joseph Charlton - No issues here, will be the starter in 2021. Nice find by the staff.

LS: None - With JJ Jansen being a FA and also being 35, the team could opt to go with a young LS for the future. From Jason Kyle to JJ Jansen, the Panthers had two very solid LS eras.

KR: None - Pharoah Cooper is a FA. He was solid, if not unspectacular last season. I could see him being brought back, or a similar type player being signed in FA.

PR: None - Trenton Cannon fielded punts a few times last season. Could see some UDFA or Cannon take this role.

NEEDS

Aside from obvious underperformance from Bridgewater at QB....

Offensive Line is the biggest need BY FAR. The team needs to spend money in FA and high draft picks to fill out a depleted and underperforming unit from 2020. The Panthers need to come out of the draft with 1-2 offensive linemen, and could spent serious money on big name linemen from other teams. Like I mentioned, LT Terron Armstead could be a solid signing if he is cut, if Okung is not brought back for whatever reason.

LB and CB are the second biggest needs. CB was a wildly underperforming group, with so many 3rd down conversions it made our heads spin. I see a big FA signing at CB. LB could be addressed in the draft with young starters needed going forward. I wouldn't be upset if Micah Parsons ended up on the Panthers.

After those 3 spots, WR depth is a big need. There are some solid targets in the draft to replace Samuel. Someone like Keelan Cole who had a solid season for the Jaguars could be a target as well.

After those key areas, depth is needed pretty much everywhere else on the roster.

TAKEAWAYS

I see the Panthers as a team that needs to stockpile draft picks, and build depth and competition at every position. Trading down, even in the 1st round, is a solid idea. Bridgewater obviously needs to be replaced, but it just might not be in the cards this offseason. With improved OL play and an improved defense to generate more offensive possessions and turnovers, Bridgewater might look better. There are so many other needs on the roster that selling the farm to get someone like Deshaun Watson might be taking two steps back to take a step forward.

I think there is a very good chance the Panthers are a better team in 2021 with solid free agent signings and drafts to improve the OL, another good draft on defense, and (praying) improved play from Bridgewater. It might even be enough to be a playoff team.

Hope you enjoyed this post, goodbye.

[Jay Roosevelt]

Who cares if we're a "playoff team" if we're 1-and-done because we have no QB?

We could fill all those holes with Pro Bowlers and still not be legit Super Bowl contenders with Teddy Bridgewater at QB. Just look at the Bucs; 7-9 with the same core team in 2019, Super Bowl champs with Tom Brady.

Fill the hole at QB first. Otherwise, nothing else really matters.

Edited February 21, 2021 by Jay Roosevelt

[Harbingers]

Is Daley still on the roster? I thought he was a FA this year. Nvm was thinking Schofield.

Edited February 21, 2021 by Harbingers

[kungfoodude]

It's tough to say what our course will be this offseason. If the Watson rumors are true, you almost have to throw the playbook out the window and just see what the inevitable cost will be before you chart a course in the draft. That is assuming it happens before the draft.

If you remove Watson from the equation, you have to tag Moton until you get a deal in place especially with this new chunk of money available to spend. Then I think it comes down to who you really like in the draft at QB. IMO, it's unlikely we get a shot at one of the top 4 QB's in the draft at 8. If you like one or more of those guys, do you package to trade UP rather than trade down? If you decide to stand pat at #8, I think we need to see what is available at LT. If we can land a top 2 OT prospect in the draft, I would be reticent to trade down, as well. I might even make the same argument for an elite CB there.

Other than that, I would try and trade into the teens to add some additional picks. Given the dire situation at OL, it would be nice to bolster this years picks and compensatory picks or add some 1st, 2nd or 3rd round picks next year. Ideally, given that this is a strong OL class, I would like to see at least 3 OL drafted in 2021. 

[The Lobo]

If a Watson deal can’t get done, trading down is a good back up. 

[45catfan]

Trade down, yes, but not until at least the 3rd round.  We have to hit on the first two picks, badly...i.e. day 1 starters.  Rotational players and backups, sure, we can trade back and gain a couple of picks while not missing out on much talent-wise.

[run-run-pass-punt]

I'm definitely in the trade down/accumulate picks camp. Too many needs. If a QB we like (Lance?) is sitting there at 8, I wouldn't have a problem with taking him and trading back in later rounds though.

[Pup McBarky]

2 minutes ago, run-run-pass-punt said:

I'm definitely in the trade down/accumulate picks camp. Too many needs. If a QB we like (Lance?) is sitting there at 8, I wouldn't have a problem with taking him and trading back in later rounds though.

[FakePlasticTrees]

Rule #1 in today’s NFL draft should be as follows: If you do not have a “franchise QB” and you are in a position to draft a “ franchise QB” you draft him.

Rule #2 should be as follows: If you suspect a “franchise QB” is close to your draft position but likely not to make it to you then due diligence requires an attempt move up. The amount you are willing to pay to move up will be driven by the degree of confidence you have in that QB’s franchise abilities.

I agree with the original poster that Bridgewater is clearly not a “ franchise QB”. I also agree that the Panthers are likely to be better next season. However, I think this augers in favor of drafting a franchise QB this year because the cost to move up next season will be even greater.

I even agree with the proposition that the Panthers could back into the playoffs next season with a quality season offseason. However, the stated goal of David Tepper is to win championships. That certainly is my hope. I am tired of occasionally making the playoffs and losing. That will be the fate of this team until at least one or two years after drafting a franchise QB.
 

Do not put it off would be my motto. Delayed gratification can be overrated.

[NanuqoftheNorth]

Build a solid supporting cast and the free agent QB will come.

We've tried the "Get the franchise QB and build around him" approach for the last decade and we all saw what that got us.

A broken down franchise QB and no championship.

Edited February 21, 2021 by NanuqoftheNorth

[pantherj]

The plan should have been to start Grier last season and draft Lawrence or Fields. That idea was never considered, and neither was losing to Washington.

Now we're in danger of multi-season QB limbo with no chance of winning a SB.

So what should we do from this bad position?

If Trey Lance is available at 8, then we have to take him unless our scouts don't think he's worth it. Then it's either hit or miss on Trey. He's boom or bust.

If the top 4 QB's come off the board then we will get good trade offers imo. That's because those 4 QB picks will push a highly coveted player into our lap. We could be looking at Jalen Waddle, Kyle Pitts, Micah Parsons, and Patrick Surtain II. Some team is going to want one of those players enough to make us an offer. Our roster is swiss cheese, so trading down is the obvious choice.

Once we move down go by bpa at a position of need. Preferably o-line, TE, and secondary.

With the o-line rebuilt we become a more attractive team for free agent QBs, and we can better protect a rookie QB if we draft one in 2022.

Last season's mistakes have come home to roost. We might have to extend our QB search to 2022 assuming Trey Lance is not seen as a good potential franchise QB.

 

[pantherj]

If no one wants to trade with us, then select Jalen Waddle, and shore up the o-line secondary with the rest of the draft.

With CMC, Jalen, DJ, Curtis, and Robby you have enough firepower to turn TB's mid and short passes into explosive plays. We'd be a match up nightmare for opposing DCs, and the improved o-line would see TB's stats soar. Not saying TB is the answer long term, but he's under contract and he might be our best option for next season depending on how the draft shakes out.

[TheSpecialJuan]

Good post 

I agree, stick to the plan and keep rebuilding 

[hepcat]

2 hours ago, Jay Roosevelt said:

Who cares if we're a "playoff team" if we're 1-and-done because we have no QB?

We could fill all those holes with Pro Bowlers and still not be legit Super Bowl contenders with Teddy Bridgewater at QB. Just look at the Bucs; 7-9 with the same core team in 2019, Super Bowl champs with Tom Brady.

Fill the hole at QB first. Otherwise, nothing else really matters.

Put Tom Brady on half the rosters in the NFL and those teams are sniffing the Super Bowl. 

 

59 minutes ago, pantherj said:

The plan should have been to start Grier last season and draft Lawrence or Fields. That idea was never considered, and neither was losing to Washington.

Now we're in danger of multi-season QB limbo with no chance of winning a SB.

So what should we do from this bad position?

If Trey Lance is available at 8, then we have to take him unless our scouts don't think he's worth it. Then it's either hit or miss on Trey. He's boom or bust.

If the top 4 QB's come off the board then we will get good trade offers imo. That's because those 4 QB picks will push a highly coveted player into our lap. We could be looking at Jalen Waddle, Kyle Pitts, Micah Parsons, and Patrick Surtain II. Some team is going to want one of those players enough to make us an offer. Our roster is swiss cheese, so trading down is the obvious choice.

Once we move down go by bpa at a position of need. Preferably o-line, TE, and secondary.

With the o-line rebuilt we become a more attractive team for free agent QBs, and we can better protect a rookie QB if we draft one in 2022.

Last season's mistakes have come home to roost. We might have to extend our QB search to 2022 assuming Trey Lance is not seen as a good potential franchise QB.

 

Overall I agree signing Bridgewater was a huge mistake. They should have kept Kyle Allen in my opinion. He is pretty much the same caliber QB as Bridgewater. 

The most likely scenario the Panthers are facing is the top QB prospects will be gone by 8. So the options are trading up for a QB or free agency. And the options aren’t great there. 

To me, there are really way too many holes on the roster to make a big trade for a QB. The Stafford deal was reasonable, but I am pretty against mortgaging future seasons for any QB including Watson. If this team was playoff ready and stacked with talent, but was just limited by having Teddy at QB, this is a different conversation. But who could honestly say the Panthers roster is any better than Houston’s was in 2020? Watson could put up monster stats and the Panthers still lose a butt load of games because their roster is ass.

Bridgewater could win on a team that doesn’t need him to win every game in the 4th quarter. I think continuing to build the defense and letting CMC, Moore, and Anderson make big plays is a decent recipe if they can’t get a top rookie QB prospect.