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"You can't judge somebody based off of sacks"

Icege

By Icege,
in Carolina Panthers

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Icege Grand Master

Icege

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Inspired by the recent comments made by Jets' DE Carl Lawson on the Jime Rome show highlighted in this article.

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Pressure equals production. Sacks equal fame.

The above code explains how a dominant edge rusher like newly signed New York Jets defensive end Carl Lawson can cash in on the open market when many casual fans aren't aware of his talents.

Lawson spent his first four years in Cincinnati, mainly living in obscurity. This offseason, he signed a three-year, $45 million contract with Gang Green to help invigorate a pass rush that has been drowsy for more than a decade.

If the figures, which include $30 million guaranteed, caused some to scratch their heads, it's likely because Lawson's sack numbers don't stand out. In his four seasons with the Bengals, Lawson generated 20 total sacks. Last season, he took down the quarterback only 5.5 times -- for comparison, that's the same number as Dawuane Smoot in Jacksonville (Smoot signed a two-year, $10 million contract with the Jags in March).

And that, friends, is how sacks lie. They don't paint the full picture of a player's capability or disruption caused.

Lawson might have only generated 5.5 sacks, placing him tied for 51st in the NFL last season, but the 26-year-old earned 64 total pressures, per Pro Football Focus, fourth-most among all edge rushers. Lawson also hit the QB 24 times, second-most among edge defenders in 2020.

.........

"You can't judge somebody based off of sacks as far as how productive they are, but if you want to get to that elite status, where you're considered an elite defender, then you need to convert those pressures into sacks, if you get what I'm saying," Lawson said. "And I'm confident that I'll be able to do that, because I feel like I've been very ... I've had tons of limiting factors to just go against me and still be highly productive. So I'm excited, and I'm still improving, so I'm extremely optimistic."

Lawson's ability to disrupt plays is why the Jets paid him to be the new centerpiece of Robert Saleh's defense in New York. The belief is that eventually, the sacks will come, so long as the disruption remains.

With this perspective in mind, I wanted to take a look at the defensive linemen currently on the Panthers' roster. A couple of interesting notes before looking at the numbers:

  • While Brian Burns is far and away the team's best pass rusher, Efe Obada was 2nd on the team in pressures (21) and sacks (5.5).
  • Austin Larkin was also the only defensive lineman on the roster that did not have any sacks nor pressures (127 defensive snaps).
  • Christian Miller opted out last season, so I've included the numbers from his 2019 rookie season.
  • Frankie Luvu is included as he lined up as an OLB in a 3-4 most often during his time with the Jets. 
  • Mike Panasiuk spent his time on the practice squad last year without playing in any games so he has been left off the list along with rookies Daviyon Nixon and Phil Hoskins as I'm currently unable to find college stats for pressures, only sacks.
     
Player Sk Prss
Brian Burns 9 37
Haason Reddick 12.5 34
Derrick Brown 2 19
Morgan Fox 6 13
Yetur Gross-Matos 2.5 12
DaQuan Jones 2 11
Marquis Haynes 4 10
Bravvion Roy 1 8
Frankie Luvu 2 7
Christian Miller 2 2
Caraun Reid 0 1
Frank Herron 0 1
Austin Larkin 0 0

The addition of Haason Reddick looks like it could be a major boost to the team's pass rush while Derrick Brown quietly impacted the pass more than some fans would have us believe as he was 3rd on the team in pressures last year.

Jones and Fox also look like they'll provide some interior help while Reid, Herron, and Larkin likely won't make the final roster. Hoskins and Nixon have their work cut out for them to make the main roster with Brown, Jones, Roy, and Fox all likely making the final cut unless one of them can overtake Roy for his spot.

It'll be interesting seeing Frankie Luvu, Marquis Haynes, and Christian Miller compete. At least one of those guys could lose their roster spot to one of the aforementioned DTs, but if all three practice well they could all still make the team.

Edited by Icege
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Mr. Scot Grand Master

Mr. Scot

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Good analysis.

The hardest thing about measuring football performance by stats is that there are so many things you just can't quantify. How nervous a particular lineman makes an opposing quarterback is one example.

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SBBlue Veteran

SBBlue

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24 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Good analysis.

The hardest thing about measuring football performance by stats is that there are so many things you just can't quantify. How nervous a particular lineman makes an opposing quarterback is one example.

Yeah.  I'd like us to lead the league in unnerving qbs.

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kass Mentor

kass

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There was an interview this off-season with Luke, posted on this forum. I think he stated he thought Tackle for loss was an underrated stat.

I think Reddick ended up top 5 in that stat. 

Is that worth to be included? 

What stats did the rookies have in college? 

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Moo Daeng Experienced

Moo Daeng

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Preventing points and being part of preventing points is what matters. The defense being affective is what matters. Individual production is what we can easily quantify or be exited about. However, it all needs to combine to prevent points. 

I'm encouraged it will. 

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Khaki Lackey Mentor

Khaki Lackey

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Does it count as a pressure if an edge rusher flushes a QB from the pocket and completes a TD?

As far as unnerving the QB, I guarantee you the guys that put the QB on his ass are more effective at it. 

Sacks are overrated as far as evaluating DT productivity. Edge rushers not so much imo.

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BrianS Veteran

BrianS

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As a team last year, our pass rush win rate was pretty good at 12th overall.  Where we struggled was with run stop win rate, where we were 28th.  Yikes!  We have GOT to learn how to stop the run.

Offensively, also probably what you would expect.  We were 23rd in pass block win rate, but 7th in run block win rate.  Looking at that run block win rate, it occurs to me that Mike Davis may not have been as good as we thought.  We were actually setting him up pretty well.  If we can figure out how to pass block, we're going to be dangerous.

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Icege Grand Master

Icege

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31 minutes ago, Khaki Lackey said:

Does it count as a pressure if an edge rusher flushes a QB from the pocket and completes a TD?

I believe it does as the DL did their job in that scenario while the coverage failed.

Can also include QB hits/Hurries if there's interest, but I won't be able to edit OP to include it.

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Icege Grand Master

Icege

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58 minutes ago, BrianS said:

As a team last year, our pass rush win rate was pretty good at 12th overall.  Where we struggled was with run stop win rate, where we were 28th.  Yikes!  We have GOT to learn how to stop the run.

Offensively, also probably what you would expect.  We were 23rd in pass block win rate, but 7th in run block win rate.  Looking at that run block win rate, it occurs to me that Mike Davis may not have been as good as we thought.  We were actually setting him up pretty well.  If we can figure out how to pass block, we're going to be dangerous.

Eh... idk about that. It took until week 3 for the team to get their first sack and they were not lighting it up until later in the year with two 5 sack performances (vs DET & GB). It is definitely a good sign that they started to get to the QB but they weren't doing that until later in the season.

 

Fully agree with the team needing to do better vs the run tho

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