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Can Baker Mayfield lift Carolina Panthers into playoff contention? NFL sources believe so.


poundaway
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1 hour ago, poundaway said:

Mayfield has 7 4th-qtr comebacks and 6 game winning drives.  He didn't have any last year.  He was at a decent pace up until that point.

 

If CLE's defense didn't have a historic (literally historic) collapse against Herbert and the Chargers, Mayfield would have had at least 1 last season.  There were a few others that I'm not sure are fair to square on Mayfield entirely. He was hurt and played poorly as the season went on, but CLE was erratic all over the place last season - not just their former QB. 

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2 hours ago, mc52beast said:

The NFC isn’t all that great. You have the Bucs, Rams, Packers and maybe the “Boyz.” Of course CMC has to stay healthy, Baker has to stay healthy and show what he did in 2020, and our defense has to get off the field on 3rd down. 

I think you're sleeping on the Eagles. They are going to have a good year.

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7 hours ago, poundaway said:

Mayfield has 7 4th-qtr comebacks and 6 game winning drives.  He didn't have any last year.  He was at a decent pace up until that point.

We were horrible in turnovers, ranked 26, but we were 4th in punts forced.  I know they're not the same, but  it is  the ball back without allowing a score.
 

7 GWD in 59 starts with 30 losses. That is 37 chances to show his worth in the NFL - a conversion rate of 18.9%. The defense and running game of the Browns anchored 37.3% of the wins.

Absent the QB, a bad team converts 40% of the wins, an average team coverts 50% and a good team converts 60%.

QBs on a bad team should be converting GWDs 40% of the time if they are good. Good QBs on a good team convert 30% GWD.

Mayfield was on a bad Browns team and converted less than 20%. This is a metric that translates consistently from college to the NFL, and QBs will not exceed their college GWD conversion rate in the NFL.

Good QBs that can be a factor in the playoffs do not have seasons where they produce 0 GWD... ever.

A team would never miss on drafting a QB like Tom Brady, Matt Hasselbeck, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Josh Allen and Desmond Ridder if they paid closer attention to this metric. You'd also avoid many of the QB busts too while hitting more in the mid rounds. You're not going to find QB busts that kept rattling off GWD in college, and you'd root out the Mayfields that are carried to wins by their elite college defenses and running game.

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3 hours ago, CPantherKing said:

7 GWD in 59 starts with 30 losses. That is 37 chances to show his worth in the NFL - a conversion rate of 18.9%.

 

That assumes he has the ball at the end, some reasonable combination of timeouts/time, and a one score difference in every loss.

GWD is an important  metric and I'm not arguing Baker is really strong in this category.  He's not, mostly because he had 0 last year.  Someone was pointing out we didn't have a QB who could win games, and I pointed out that Baker has done both GWD and 4qrtr comebacks.  His rate on those wasn't that bad until last year. 

BTW GWD isn't the be all and end all measurement of a QB.  I remember Palmer had a GWD which came from a recovered fumble.  They knee-ed it 3 times and then kicked a FG.  David Carr has a good GWD count, but I wouldn't say he's an awesome QB.

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53 minutes ago, poundaway said:

 

That assumes he has the ball at the end, some reasonable combination of timeouts/time, and a one score difference in every loss.

GWD is an important  metric and I'm not arguing Baker is really strong in this category.  He's not, mostly because he had 0 last year.  Someone was pointing out we didn't have a QB who could win games, and I pointed out that Baker has done both GWD and 4qrtr comebacks.  His rate on those wasn't that bad until last year. 

BTW GWD isn't the be all and end all measurement of a QB.  I remember Palmer had a GWD which came from a recovered fumble.  They knee-ed it 3 times and then kicked a FG.  David Carr has a good GWD count, but I wouldn't say he's an awesome QB.

Like most numbers, the devil is in the details that are often not captured without digging deeper.

As you said, if a team is tied or down by 1 or 2 and the defense forces a turnover or the special teams sets up the offense on the opponent 30, the offense either runs (literally) 3 plays or runs the clock down to :04 and the kicker seals the deal, that is a GWD.  It probably shouldn't be, because all the offense did was not turn the ball over, but it is.

If the same thing happens and the offense gets the ball on the opponents 45 and needs simply a first down and to not turn the ball over, that is a GWD equal to Joe Montana starting on his own 8 with 3:20 left in SB 23, down by 3, and completing a TD pass with :34 left to win the game.

GWD is a good starting point, but blindly taking the numbers as gospel does not exactly tell the whole story.  They are not all created equal.

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On 8/6/2022 at 2:03 AM, bruceleeroy said:

As the actual stats prove, Mayfield is a top 10 QB when healthy and motivated.  He is both in Carolina.

I'm not sure about top 10 (I haven't seen those stats), but this quote from the article sums up my feelings. And expectations. If he bounces back from last years slump, and I see no reason why he wouldn't, he's a really good QB.

EXPECTATIONS FOR MAYFIELD

Mayfield went just 253-of-418 for 3,010 yards with 17 touchdowns and 13 interceptions last season and ranked 27th out of 38 qualified quarterbacks with a 62.4 PFF passing grade. But even in a down year, Mayfield was considerably better than the three quarterbacks who suited up for Carolina last season in Darnold, P.J. Walker and Cam Newton, and nearly everyone we spoke to, including a scout from a Panthers division rival, expected him to be an upgrade over that trio.

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On 8/6/2022 at 10:34 AM, kungfoodude said:

Oh I am not saying Baker can't elevate us as a team but there is only so far a QB cam elevate a team with bad coaching and/or poor personnel.

Anyone trying to argue this should go back and rewatch SB50. Cam was hanging in there the first half with Philly fugging Brown as his top receiver! 1 person cannot do it all.

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23 hours ago, mrcompletely11 said:
On 8/7/2022 at 11:06 AM, GOAT said:

the +4000 bet for us to make the playoffs is really enticing.

all comes down to who Rhule starts in multiple positions.

The +1000 to win the division equally enticing.  Atl should be bad, TB and NO have new coaches and in theory Brady could just completely collapse so only a few crazy things have to happen for us to catch fire and win the div

I'm sorry but I'm trying to figure out betting. Doesn't this say that we are 4 times more likely to win the division than make the playoffs? Wouldn't winning the division mean we automatically make the playoffs?

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2 hours ago, Sgt Schultz said:

GWD is a good starting point, but blindly taking the numbers as gospel does not exactly tell the whole story.  They are not all created equal.

Basically, like with most stats, context matters.

On an off note, the most definitive stat I can think of in terms of markedly affecting win-loss record is the turnover ratio. Most of the times if you lose that battle, you're going to lose. That's why a QB that takes care of the ball is so important.

 

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3 minutes ago, top dawg said:

Basically, like with most stats, context matters.

On an off note, the most definitive stat I can think of in terms of markedly affecting win-loss record is the turnover ratio. Most of the times if you lose that battle, you're going to lose. That's why a QB that takes care of the ball is so important.

 

Turnover ratio has stood the test of time far back as I can remember.  Every now and then a team will win a big game where they blew the turnover ratio, but overall, that is the exception. 

One can argue that the Hail Mary interception at the end of a half does not impact anything other than the stat, but the rest usually hurt one way or another.

I hate to bring this up, but if the turnover numbers from a certain Superb Owl we would like to forget were changed from 2-4 to even 2-2, the outcome would have likely been different.

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On 8/8/2022 at 8:13 AM, shaqattaq said:

I'm sorry but I'm trying to figure out betting. Doesn't this say that we are 4 times more likely to win the division than make the playoffs? Wouldn't winning the division mean we automatically make the playoffs?

no I fat fingered it, I meant to say +400. It's actually +500 to make playoffs. We're +1000 to win the division.

essentially put a 100 down and you win a G if we win the south.

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