Defensive expectations this year

[AU-panther]

 What are everyone's expectations for the defense this year?

Notable players we lost:

Reddick, Gilmore, Jones?

Player gained:

Horn, Woods, Henderson (maybe)

here are some some random stats from last year:

2021 NFL Opposition & Defensive Statistics | Pro-Football-Reference.com

We were 2nd in yards allowed.  (Most reasonable fans don't think we were a top 2 defense)

Also, yards per game can be misleading because you can play really slow on offense which reduces the number of possessions for the opposition, but ....

We were 3rd in yards per play.  

That stat surprised me a good bit.

We were 21st in points allowed. 

At the end of the day points are the only thing that matter, which would put us a little below average, but not in the bottom 10 which some would have you believe.

We were 27th in turnovers.

Turnovers can be a bit of an unstable metric.  The fact we were kind of in the middle 1/3 on points allowed but that bad with turnovers actually makes the defense look better.

We were 32nd in starting field position for the defense.

Our offense definitely made things hard on our defense.

We were 15th in points per drive.

Points per drive is sometimes a better measure than points per game because it takes offensive tempo out of the equation.

 Rush Defense

A lot of talk about how bad our run defense was.

We were 18th in rush allowed for the season.  

A bit surprising based on the narrative around here.

Maybe teams ran less on us but had bigger runs??  But...

We were 8th in yards per attempt.

Teams actually didn't have much success running against us on a per rush attempt bases.  They just decided to run more often on us.  This can often be a product of your offense.  If you are always behind in games other teams run more to kill clock.  

I don't expect us to be an "elite" defense, but with some better luck in the turnover department and better play by the offense this defense could easily be in the top half, maybe top 10 of the league.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[KSpan]

Pretty similar to last year, with incremental improvement based on the improvement of the offense. The defense is average at best and, like the team as a whole (some major secondary talent, big questions in the front seven, net = average), will go as Snow (coaching) goes.

Edited September 3, 2022 by KSpan

[Losovoevosseniorcapspeciai]

I don’t remember a panthers team with so much ascending talent. Makes my feelings feel more legitimate than homerism. 
So many key positions in critical years for traditional leaps in production. 
What if year 3 for Brown works and he looks like the monster he did last week? Worked for Kris Jenkins.

Year 3 for Chinn, Yetur, hell Roy has been balling. Is that real? Cj finally a lock down? I think it’s reasonable optimism. 
Year 4 for Burns who’s added even more weight to his frame and seems like a man possessed.
Very few are what they are, which is well above average/defensive staples, possibly fringe pro bowl - Shaq, Woods, Donte, Ionniddis.

Reasonable reclamation projects with Wilson, Littleton, who have both had outstanding preseasons. 

I feel there’s a reasonable expectation that this d is loaded. 

Didn’t even get to Jc or Luvu, (our best players) ascending for different reasons. Pretty sweet depth at cb. Who knows what Marquan McCall or B Smith could contribute. 
 

Just don’t recall any side of the ball with this much reasonable upside. I don’t see weaknesses (run d concerns have been overblown, go look at league averages), I don’t see free agent losses as damaging, Ceiling is Roof. Lesssgooooo

[L-TownCat]

Less sacks, more turnovers, spotty run-d.

[Waldo]

I'm think we are going to see a lot of talent wasted by the DBs as teams are running it down our throat successfully again. I don't have any faith in Snow's scheme at the NFL level at this point. 

Next year could be great with a new scheme but what we saw last year is not good enough and we lost our best and most productive players on 2 levels. I really look forward to the coaching Wilks will give his unit this year. It could be huge moving forward.

[poundaway]

I'm hoping that Horn's return will diminish the productivity loss of Gilmore. 
Gilmore only played in 8 games.

I'm still not sold on Henderson.  I didn't think much of him in preseason.  He has to step up or they are going to pick on him all day long.

On a per rep basis YGM stats look good, he needs to stay healthy.

I think Damien Wilson, Cory Littleton and even Brandon Smith will improve our LB core and in turn help the rushing defense.

Jones for Ionnitis looks like a wash on paper.

I believe Baker, the OL additions and even Hekker will help the D a lot.   Its hard to stop a score when you're starting on your own 22 yard line after an int on the first play from the line of scrimmage.  As the OP stated, we had the 32nd worst defensive staring field position.

[saX man]

I expect a top-12 secondary with this group, increased takeaways.  LB group with strong development from Brandon Smith.

Shaq & Xavier are the leaders, with hopefully Brown becoming one as well.  Also, if we keep running these odd formations 3-2-6, 3-3-5, etc., Derrick Brown & YGM need to step up their run games in a BIG way.  Those formations leave us susceptible.  We got the LBs we did to help with things, Chinn to operate in the box in these scenarios, and I think Wilson & Smith will be huge for us in that respect. 

Line wise, Haynes also needs to keep it up and step into a bigger role.

Key Growth Dudes:

Derrick Brown - Needs to improve

YGM - Is great when he plays, needs to stay out there and healthy

Brandon Smith - Huge potential & ceiling.

Step Up/Important Increased Role Players:

Frank Luvu on the outside

Marquis Haynes as our pass rusher to replace Reddick

CJ Henderson/Taylor as CB3/4

[panthers55]

Everyone seems to downplay we were second in yards surrendered and therefore the second ranked defense yet that is the stat that the NFl uses for rankings both on offense and defense. I  personally think the only stats that matter are points for and points against.  But we were very good given the time they were out there. This defense is going to be good again for a myriad of reasons. We have speed, youth, and aggression. All good traits if directed positively. Shaq is a difference maker and will make everyone better like Luke did. Wilks will help the back end and if the offense helps by scoring more it forces teams to pass to catch up which is our strength. 

[Snake]

At best: Defense that bends doesn't break. 

At worst: defense that's leaky in the run game and allows teams to control the clock. 

[Jackie Lee]

2 hours ago, Snake said:

At best: Defense that bends doesn't break. 

At worst: defense that's leaky in the run game and allows teams to control the clock. 

Rewatching some stuff and pretty sure YGM isn't the answer opposite Burns. He makes the occasional flash play but doesn't really seem to have the instincts 

[Jackie Lee]

Also CJ Henderson got picked on all preseason by number 2's, what's his role?

[BIGH2001]

The DL sucks and the linebackers aren’t much better outside of a player or two. The same formula that beat us last year will beat us again. This defense is full of finesse players who look good on paper but teams are going line up and physical us to death like Dallas, New England, Tampa, etc did last year.

[YourLastThought]

We need some guys stepping up like Derrick Brown. If he could make a jump and a few others we could be a solid D. I hope it happens. I'm not sure what to predict for this year as I feel it could go either way. I don't have super high expectations but I have super high hopes that some guys who have been very quiet will make a big jump and be one what I had hoped they would.

[L-TownCat]

9 hours ago, Snake said:

At worst: defense that's leaky in the run game and allows teams to control the clock. 

That could work both ways.  With a QB looking to move the ball, our D will get to rest more this year.  Fewer 3&outs and short fields should help this Defense.

Fewer shorter fields will also shine a little light on that 2nd in yards allowed last year.