A Statistical Analysis of Signing Carr vs. Trading for L. Jackson

[SmokinwithWilly]

12 minutes ago, top dawg said:

I think we'll be alright either way. Acquiring Jackson would just be the express route. Like I said, the cap increases every year. We have D.J.  for at least another 3 years. Chuba and TMJ for at least a couple. We can also be smart with draft and free agent acquisition. 

For the record, I'd be surprised if we go the FA route, much less get the top dawg . I do realize that the devil is all in the details however. Whatever our staff decides...

I'm not gonna lie, 50-60m per year guaranteed for 5-6 years scares the poo out of me for a QB that has missed 25% of the season the past 2 years. 

[SuperBowlBound]

2 hours ago, Mr. Scot said:

Two good rules of thumb in football:

1) Pay attention to what smart teams do and learn from their ideas.

2) Pay attention to what dumb teams do and learn from their mistakes

The Ravens are a smart team. If they don't want to pay Jackson the kind of money he's asking for, I'd want to know why.

The Browns and Broncos are dumb teams. They both traded away high draft picks and huge money for someone else's "franchise quarterback" and now are regretting it.

I don't want us to be a dumb team.

Look at the Eagles, they constantly invest in the offensive & defensive lines. They’ve made mistakes in the past but they move on quickly when they make a mistake and don’t double down on them. 

[LinvilleGorge]

30 minutes ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

I'm not gonna lie, 50-60m per year guaranteed for 5-6 years scares the poo out of me for a QB that has missed 25% of the season the past 2 years. 

If Lamar pulls off a deal like that with no agent every NFL agent gonna be like

[top dawg]

2 hours ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

I'm not gonna lie, 50-60m per year guaranteed for 5-6 years scares the poo out of me for a QB that has missed 25% of the season the past 2 years. 

I seriously doubt he gets any more than 50 mil per (maybe a little more, but nowhere near 60), & perhaps it will be less. Jackson's gonna have to come to grips with reality. The market will speak, but I don't think he'll like what it says if it's too over the top.

[SmokinwithWilly]

19 minutes ago, top dawg said:

I seriously doubt he gets any more than 50 mil per (maybe a little more, but nowhere near 60), & perhaps it will be less. Jackson's gonna have to come to grips with reality. The market will speak, but I don't think he'll like what it says if it's too over the top.

He turned down $250 with $133M guaranteed. He wants fully guaranteed money which we all know. If it turns into a bidding war he could see more, I just don't want to see us be a part of it.

[Jon Snow]

4 hours ago, top dawg said:

I seriously doubt he gets any more than 50 mil per (maybe a little more, but nowhere near 60), & perhaps it will be less. Jackson's gonna have to come to grips with reality. The market will speak, but I don't think he'll like what it says if it's too over the top.

He will not get that in the open market.  He's fooling himself if he thinks that. If any team pays him that much they are idiots and are going to be giving the Ravens a top 5 pick for 24 and 25. Bank on it.

[Stuart Smith]

On 2/15/2023 at 7:49 PM, top dawg said:

My problem with this is that there's really no context, it's just numbers and assumptions, the biggest assumption being that Jackson is a "running quarterback" by nature. 

Like I said in another post somewhere: when your best skill position player is Mark Andrews, and you haven't really had any other WR or RB of note (& post-prime or washed up guys don't count), you're probably going to do too much. I also am amused that you've concluded that a 25 year old Jackson effectively has the same longevity as 32 year old Carr (notwithstanding playing style).

There's a lot of crystal-balling---yes, a verb---going on here.

I thought there was detailed information that was very informative, a lot to think about. I appreciate someone going to the trouble to dig this information out and share. 

[Ivan The Awesome]

People have some revisionist history or something. Carr has had 4 different coaches and produced with an ass organization each and every time. He's a proven winner but hey, let the debbie downers talk themselves out of a good/great QB because "there's always next year."... smh. 

Also, do you all not realize that you're gonna have to pay for a QB one way or another? You're either going to win a bidding war with draft picks or money. If this regime wants to actually compete, they WILL get a QB either way. You're not going to have just Corral in the roster next year. The moves they have made do not scream "There's always next year." at all. 

Another thing, at this time, it would actually be CHEAPER to move up to get a QB than next year. This coaching staff is not going to have a 5 game winning season. You're looking at the Panthers drafting in the teens or the 20's. That means it will take more draft capital to go up next year. Something that I do not believe they will have as much as this year. They are primed to do it this year. Get it done. fug THEM PICKS. GET. YOUR. GUY.

I'll go on record that if they don't draft Stroud then Carr is the next best thing. 

 

[frankw]

6 hours ago, Ivan The Awesome said:

People have some revisionist history or something. Carr has had 4 different coaches and produced with an ass organization each and every time. He's a proven winner but hey, let the debbie downers talk themselves out of a good/great QB because "there's always next year."... smh. 

Also, do you all not realize that you're gonna have to pay for a QB one way or another? You're either going to win a bidding war with draft picks or money. If this regime wants to actually compete, they WILL get a QB either way. You're not going to have just Corral in the roster next year. The moves they have made do not scream "There's always next year." at all. 

Another thing, at this time, it would actually be CHEAPER to move up to get a QB than next year. This coaching staff is not going to have a 5 game winning season. You're looking at the Panthers drafting in the teens or the 20's. That means it will take more draft capital to go up next year. Something that I do not believe they will have as much as this year. They are primed to do it this year. Get it done. fug THEM PICKS. GET. YOUR. GUY.

I'll go on record that if they don't draft Stroud then Carr is the next best thing. 

 

It's really weird you are high on Stroud but also have a boner for someone like Carr. He's 32. He doesn't even have the youth factor going for him like the other reclamation projects (Mayfield and Darnold) we convinced ourselves might somehow work out in our favor. The one plus though is if we sign him to a huge deal and he stinks folks like you will pretend you never wanted him. That might be worth it to laugh at

[MHS831]

14 hours ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

He turned down $250 with $133M guaranteed. He wants fully guaranteed money which we all know. If it turns into a bidding war he could see more, I just don't want to see us be a part of it.

He is his own agent

Almost as bad as what the say about the person who represents themselves in court has a fool for a client.

The devil is in the details.

[thefuzz]

1 hour ago, MHS831 said:

He is his own agent

Almost as bad as what the say about the person who represents themselves in court has a fool for a client.

The devil is in the details.

Agreed.

There are some things that you need professional help with...maybe not everyone...but Lamar?  Yea he needs help.

Not everyone needs a realtor, lawyer, accountant, or financial planner...but most do.

 

[top dawg]

1 hour ago, MHS831 said:

He is his own agent

Almost as bad as what the say about the person who represents themselves in court has a fool for a client.

The devil is in the details.

Honestly, he can probably command much more than that in guarantees, assuming it was a five-year deal.

[top dawg]

12 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

He will not get that in the open market.  He's fooling himself if he thinks that. If any team pays him that much they are idiots and are going to be giving the Ravens a top 5 pick for 24 and 25. Bank on it.

Depends on the team. 

It doesn't scare me to pay a QB that's worth paying (or trading for one worth trading for). 50 mil per is going to be commonplace relatively soon because franchises are making more money than ever. Key said that it's going to hit 60 in the foreseeable future. The real issue is how much QBs will be receiving in guarantees. 

My issue with Lamar is that he has to be more realistic given his injury history. There has to be a compromise---a give and take. He should also be looking at what he's gaining in weapons and all that.

I think that their is a real point where a franchise becomes cash strapped, but I don't necessarily know that 50 mil per is that point. Everyone wants to save a dollar, but you have to look at your own budget and situation and see if you can develop a plan for you that affords you that which you desire. If the numbers don't add up, you go to another plan. There is more than one way to skin a cat.