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Verge's 2023 Draft general


Verge
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Thank you for the thread Verge, in particular the tidbit about Carolina preferring AR v Levis (very reassuring to me).

I’ve disagreed with your QB evaluations before (in particular about Willis and Fields) but always appreciated the time and effort you put into them. Thanks for still being around these parts. 

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16 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Young is just too good at playing QB to last long on the board. Yeah, his small stature definitely raises questions about how long he'll last on the field and watching Tua get ragdolled around last year should still be fresh on everyone's mind. But still, someone is gonna take their chances high on draft night. Hell, it might be us.

 

Especially considering Kyler went 1st overall and honestly on the field he is a very good player without his size really limiting him at all (and of course Brees and Wilson have had zero issues). Kyler's biggest issue by far is his attitude/commitment. Which is not a concern at all with Young. I like Stroud better but Stroud/Young are clearly the top 2 in a tier of their own in this draft IMO.

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17 minutes ago, t96 said:

Especially considering Kyler went 1st overall and honestly on the field he is a very good player without his size really limiting him at all (and of course Brees and Wilson have had zero issues). Kyler's biggest issue by far is his attitude/commitment. Which is not a concern at all with Young. I like Stroud better but Stroud/Young are clearly the top 2 in a tier of their own in this draft IMO.

Yeah, it was alarming when they felt the need to put a film study clause in his contract and then those comments from his former teammate Adrian Peterson about "Kyler Murray don't care about NOBODY but Kyler Murray". Like... damn. Y'all should've traded that dude for whatever you could've gotten and moved on.

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14 hours ago, Jaxel said:

@Verge what is your sense of where the Panther ultimately land and who they take? I'm personally hoping they go all in and jump to one, but realistically what is your insight?

I think they will try to go to one but be unable. I think they like the top three guys enough to jump to three, similar to the Goff/Wentz situation years ago when Philly went to 2. 

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6 hours ago, Icege said:

Any chance we can get a peek at your top 5 LBs & TEs? 👀

Overall thoughts on both of those groups for this class as well?

I am still doing reports on some of these guys but 

Off ball LB: 
1. Drew Sanders 
2. Trenton Simpson 
3. Daiyan Henley 
4. Henry To'o To'o
5. Noah Sewell 

TE: 
1. Dalton Kincaid 
2. Darnell Washington 
3. Michael Mayer 
4. Luke Musgrave 
5. Sam LaPorta 

I think it is a very deep tight end class, a not so deep linebacker class. 

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Thanks as always Verge. I don't always agree with the assessments but always appreciate them. 

Plus, let's be real, no one really knows one way or the other if these guys pan out or not. It's a crapshoot with more variables than damn near any other sport. Ever since Zach Wilson I've decided I don't really know crap and am willing to accept literally anyone we draft in the first round this year. 

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There's just sooooo many variables involved and plenty of them have nothing to do with talent level. How is this kid going to handle being made a millionaire overnight? Will his game translate to the NFL? Is he going to be put in a good organizational/coaching/schematic system for him to thrive? Does he have the mental makeup to succeed at the NFL level? How is he going to adapt when everyone is almost as talented as he is? 

The raw talent is fairly obvious in a lot of cases. There was a TON to like about Zach Wilson in terms of raw talent but I'm pretty sure if I'd spent three minutes in an interview with him I'd been like... "uh... fug. RUN AWAY!" LOL!

 

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52 minutes ago, Verge said:

I think they will try to go to one but be unable. I think they like the top three guys enough to jump to three, similar to the Goff/Wentz situation years ago when Philly went to 2. 

This scares me 

because I think Young and Stroud go 1 and 2

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Thanks for what you do @Verge! I would love to get CJ or Bryce - though his size scares me. I would be very intrigued by AR. He seems to have the highest ceiling but also the lowest floor. If Levis is the pick I would not be as thrilled, but if that is who the staff likes, I will get on board and hope for the best. 

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    • I think he did a solid job.  Honestly I liked his post game interview the best.  He gave himself a C and said he left a lot out on the field.  That kind of attitude can carry him far.
    • This is lacking a fairly considerable amount of context. For one, Adams(age 22) started 12 of 16 games, had 38 rec, 446 yds and 3 TD's on 66 targets(18 less, with 2 less games started). The main thing missing here is that the top two WR's for Green Bay that year combined for about 2800 yds and 25 TD's. Now if you want to throw a more accurate dart at Adams, take a look at year two. This year the production was spread around considerably and Adams didn't stand out from that pack(pun not intended).  So, if XL struggles mightily this season, I would probably keep that comparison in your quiver to counter argue. I would suggest that I don't think that scenario is probably very accurate for most HOF caliber WR's taken in the first round over the past 15 or so years. Adams was the 89th pick overall, as well. A little different hill to climb than XL, although not massively.
    • to clarify I am not referring to Will Levis.  Not knowingly.   I just made that up and tried to use a reasonable guesstimate of what else was done.  That sounded in the ballpark.  At one time I did look it all up and there were several teams that had much more successful days downfield.   If that happened to be Levis' actual numbers than it's more of a lucky coincidence.  If memory serves, it wasn't just Will Levis that brought the claim into question, it was SEVERAL teams had better days.  and you are missing my entire point of the subjective nature of it all.  If PFF employee Doug watched Bryce's film and then used his same unique subjective vantage point to grade all 31 other starting QBs.  Then dumped into into a spread sheet, it would a subjective Doug take but at least it would be a level uniform subjectivity.   The grades are done by various people.  All watching and applying their own subjective view to a play.  Everyone isn't going to grade incompletions out the same.  Or completions.   So when you dump it all into a spread sheet and hit sort.....it's not actually a statement of fact as portrayed.  Which is why you sometimes get some head scratching stuff.  I'm not reframing anything.   I don't think.  I just wasn't going to look it all back up so I was talking vaguely off the general issue I have with PFF and treating any random claim they make as the truth. 
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