Looking at Success or Failure of top 10 to 12 QBs since 2000

[BIGH2001]

41 minutes ago, stratocatter said:

Rhule. Tepper 1.0.

If this desperation move to get a QB doesn’t work, it gets worse from here not better.

We gave up basically one first round pick which is next year’s.  If this doesn’t work out (and there is no way we will know by next year’s draft) we will have a high first round in 2025 and potentially in subsequent years to try again. We also still have #39 this year.

Edited March 24, 2023 by BIGH2001

[BrianS]

Dear OP: 

I think your judgement may be something short of ideal.  Labeling a guy with 35000 career passing yards a "bust" might give it away a bit.

[ncstatekwi]

[thefuzz]

2nd contract with original team is probably the best indicator.

Not looking at the list all that much, I'd say you have about a 50/50 shot at getting a QB that becomes a decent starter.  The bad news, you need more than than to win in the league.

I'd expect at least a 50% washout rate just due to the over drafting of the players due to position.

[thunderraiden]

How the fug is Jay Cutler a fuging bust? My guy not only got traded for two first years after he was drafted, but was the only reason the Bears were relavant for years until he wasn't relevant anymore. Its like calling Cam a bust because his body broke down in 2018.

 

 

[toldozer]

Leftwich was an average qb. Definitely not a bust. Wentz was great his first few years until he got hurt 

[cookinbrak]

11 hours ago, Hoenheim said:

For the sake of the point of the thread I had to make some fairly hard choices.  Almost all of them are debatable to some degree. 

I'm looking at it from a totality perspective.  Whatever his reasons,  Wentz could not sustain success 

But Cam could? Even though both were really good before injuries took them down?

[toldozer]

2 hours ago, BIGH2001 said:

We gave up basically one first round pick which is next year’s.  If this doesn’t work out (and there is no way we will know by next year’s draft) we will have a high first round in 2025 and potentially in subsequent years to try again. We also still have #39 this year.

Just kind of hit me the brilliance of the trade structure.  Dalton will start first half of this year (unless drafted qb lights up preseason) at worst we will be picking around 8-12 in next year's draft. 2024 season this year's rookie will start for better or worse. If they're good it's a slam dunk trade. If they suck were picking top 3-5. So if the guy we pick sucks our draft position will be better in 25 vs 24. If he's good then it's worth the price we paid.

[Ivory Panther]

11 hours ago, Hoenheim said:

This isn't a foolproof list but thought it was interesting. Some conclusions near the bottom. Some players I was kinda torn on how to rate (ex debatable whether some are considered average or busts)

 

 

2000 (No QBs)

2001 M. Vick (Great)

2002 David Carr, Joey Harrington (busts)

2003 Carson Palmer (avg) , Byron Leftwich (Bust) 

2004 Eli Manning (good) , Philip Rivers (good) , Ben Roethlisberger (good)  

2005 Alex Smith (avg)

2006 Vince Young, Matt Lienart, Jay Cutler (all busts)

2007 JaMarcus Russel (bust)

2008 Matt Ryan (good) 

2009 Mat Stafford (good), Mark Sanchez (bust)

2010 Sam Bradford (Bust?) 

2011 Cam Newton (Good), Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder (all busts) 

2012 Andrew Luck (good) , RG III (bust), Ryan Tannehill (average) 

2013 No QBs 

2014 Blake Bortles (Bust) 

2015 Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota (busts) 

2016 Jared Goff (Good), Carson Wentz (Bust) 

2017  Mitch Trubisky (Bust), Pat Mahomes (great), D Watson (great) 

2018  Baker Mayfield (bust), Sam Darnold (bust), Josh Allen (great), Josh Rosen (bust)

2019 Kyler Murray (good), D. Jones (avg)

2020 Joe Burrow (great), Tua (good), Herbert  (great) 

2021 T. Lawrence (great), Z. Wilson (bust), T. Lance (bust), J. Fields (good) 

2022 (No QBs) 

 

23 busts 

5 average QBs

11 good QBs 

7 great QBs 

Looking in totality the odds of last 20 years of getting at least a good QB at #1  aren't too bad. 

Generally getting the 2nd highest QB in the draft is bad luck...

Maybe this will give you guys some comfort, #1 QB since 2000 has about 12/19 or 63% chance of being average good or great.

 

Where is Lamar Jackson? I thought he was a 1st rounder?

[Ivory Panther]

11 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I honestly wouldn't consider Wentz a bust. Before the injuries took their toll he was MVP caliber.

same with RG3...

[LinvilleGorge]

1 hour ago, Ivory Panther said:

same with RG3...

Yeah, injury situations are just different. The only way I consider a guy a bust due to injury is if he had major injury red flags coming into the draft. I still don't fault the player for it but in those circumstances you do have to fault the GM/team for it.

[GOAT]

holy cow bro, it looks like you've already been ripped enough for these rankings but my god.

[Riverboat Ron]

The key is to draft the best QB, I don’t understand why it’s so hard for GMs.

[mickeye76]

I was skeptical that 2000 had no QB taken in first round. So quick Google search and Chad Pennington. Who despite a tough career did play very well for the Jets resulting in playoffs and decent stats.  Hell I'd take him over Vick.  Chad was accurate and a decent human being.  Vick was on a rival team so my take will always be "yeah he can run and he's good but fug that dog killin pos."