Call me crazy, but we might have improved the pass rush after all

[Icege]

After overperforming in 2023, the Carolina Panthers' defense is once again being asked to do more with seemingly less. The same defense that was ranked #4 in average yards allowed per game (293.9) also happened to be ranked dead last in sacks (27) and hurries (18). How did the new front office decide to approach this group? By trading away the defense's best player (who also accounted for a third of the team's sacks), opting to not bring back a second rounder they had developed, and also didn't retain a veteran day three selection that had been with the team since 2018. To fill the voids created on the edges the team went and signed a pair of former Gamecocks (one of them being a former #1 overall pick) and a former first rounder that hasn't caught on yet in the league. On paper, it's understandably difficult for Panthers' faithful to believe that the names being brought in are going to be an improvement over what just left. However, on that piece of paper is a few data points that show that the team just might have improved the pass rush. Below are two tables: one showing how many snaps a player averaged before registering the corresponding stat, and the other showing a comparison between two starter groups.

Before we leap right into the starters, let's take a quick glance at the rotation. DJ Johnson and Amare Barno are returning depth pieces that are still developing. Johnson was likely going to be a three-year project, regardless of his age, and Barno was going to have to make an impact on special teams if he wanted to maintain a roster spot. Both showed minor flashes last season, Johnson with his play strength and ability to set the edge while Barno showed his speed and motor. The veteran rotational piece from last season's unit, Panthers' former fourth-rounder Marquis Haynes Jr, has been replaced by K'Lavon Chaisson who the Jaguars took at #20 in the 2020 draft. The 30yr old Haynes was oft-injured in 2023 with back and hip issues until a scary head injury in late December 2023. In his place the Panthers are hoping that the 24yr old LSU-product with an elite athletic profile will be able to provide some extra burst. Haynes was productive against the run, tackling runners behind the line almost twice as often as Chaisson, but in 142 snaps he failed to register a single hurry while Chaisson ironically averaged a hurry every 142 snaps. Chaisson also hit the QB nearly twice as often as Haynes did, and perhaps most importantly to Dan Morgan (who talked about needing to get opposing QBs on the ground), he knocked the QB down more often than any of the six players that we're looking at while not missing a tackle. We can see pretty clearly here that the pass rush numbers for Chaisson are better than Haynes', but Haynes was solid against the run. Chaisson not missing any tackles provides some relief/hope that he can improve there.

I think that at this point, we're all expecting the Jadaveon Clowney vs. Brian Burns comparison along with DJ Wonnum vs. Yetur Gross-Matos, but I'm going to do something a little bit different and compare them together (Clowney/Wonnum vs. Burns/YGM). With that said... a lot of the numbers look to be essentially the same. The biggest differences we see immediately is that Burns + YGM were getting ballcarriers down behind the line almost twice as often, but otherwise like the Chaisson vs. Haynes comparison we can see that these guys appear to perform mostly the same against the run. Where we do see the improvement though is in the pass rush numbers. Not only did Clowney/Wonnum sack the QB more often, they hurried opposing teams' passers much more often Burns/YGM. We can also see a relevant difference between pass deflections and forced fumbles as well. This is going to be very important for Evero's defense that uses disguised coverages to buy the rush an extra half of a second to get there. More PDs, sacks, and hurries means more forced throws. More forced throws means less accurate throws and more hurried decisions... two important ingredients for creating interceptions.

Perhaps the biggest question mark this upcoming season is whether or not these guys can stay healthy. Clowney is getting longer in the tooth, Wonnum is coming off of a torn quadricep that has kept him sidelined during the offseason, and Chaisson has lost two of the previous four seasons to injuries (torn ACL in 2021, torn meniscus in 2022). At least they won't withhold effort because they're afraid of getting hurt? Clowney and Wonnum are both signed through 2025, but both deals are set-up to allow the Panthers' to not be tied down to them should their performance this season lead to concerns for 2025.

tldr; the pass rush statistically improved by swapping Burns/Gross-Matos/Haynes for Clowney/Wonnum/Chaisson. Hurray!

[mrcompletely11]

Woah

[ForJimmy]

I think/hope Robinson will help more than he is getting credit for. Brown and Robinson at DE are going to make things rough on OL with their disruptiveness. Hopefully that will make life easier on our OLBS.

[Khyber53]

I've long contended that Burns looks better than he actually was. He was quick with a lot of flex in his moves. Keep him engaged, though, and he wasn't blowing through anyone. YGM... never really made me sit up and go: whoa look at him.

Just hoping to see something out there.

[CanadianCat]

You might not be wrong... 

Burn's is a great player and its going to hurt a bit cause he's joining a better d-line so he will put up sacks and playing for the Giants mean we will ALL see the highlights. 

But Burns was also only a speed guy that really didn't have top 3 traits. 

We have a bunch of guys here now.. I think collectively we might be better due to more and diverse rushers... maybe... I'm hoping your right. 

[SOJA]

great post OP

[csx]

Burns wasn't the defense's best player. Brown and Luvu were certainly better.

 

[shaq]

First off would just like to say that this is an amazing post, great thought process and did the proper research. In my eyes we used the money ball approach to fill our hole at edge. Rather than pay one guy 28 mill, we got 3 guys to replicate his production in different areas.

Clowney-Run Defense/Bull rush

Chaisson- Speed Pass Rush

Wonnum- Jack of all trades master of none guy

Curious to see how this works out production wise next season! 

[TD alt]

You're crazy!

 

 

 

 

Just answering the call.

 

Pie for putting in the work. I suspect we'll be better, but we won't know what we really have until October. Ej has proven to be somewhat of a magician if last season is any indication. Let's see what he has cooking in 2024. I don't know what veteran rushers will be cut in August to add depth (or more), but we'll be first in waiver priority. 

We gotta hold on third downs (pun certainly not intended). 

[Tomcatn]

Who's we? 

[Luciu5]

2 hours ago, Icege said:

The biggest differences we see immediately is that Burns + YGM were getting ballcarriers down behind the line almost twice as often... Where we do see the improvement though is in the pass rush numbers. Not only did Clowney/Wonnum sack the QB more often, they hurried opposing teams' passers much more often Burns/YGM.

I think I'm too stupid to understand this chart. Particularly that second one.

[TD alt]

33 minutes ago, Tomcatn said:

Who's we? 

Don't know who you are, but if you don't understand that people use the term "we," as the league, owner, coaches, players and fans as part of a team, literally and/or figuratively, then you don't understand being a fanatic or marketing, which in large part are based upon appealing to emotions.

In this case, "we" are the Panthers.

Keep Pounding!

[Johnstonny]

I really like Evero. Hope he can get the max outta this unit because as always it looks good on paper.

[Call Me James]

It’s not an outrageous take. 
 

Our pass rush numbers could improve if our secondary just remains healthy.