So, To The Point That Supposedly The 8th Overall Should Be An Immediate All-Pro, Here's A List Of The Last Ten 8th Overall Picks

[Saca312]

So, hearing the narrative that Christian McCaffrey is "a wasted pick" and essentially calling him a bust for not being a "transcendent talent." So, I later saw one of @Mr. Scot's posts on the past ten years of 8th overall picks, and decided to see if they were worthwhile or not.

• 2007 - DE Jamaal Anderson: Defensive End drafted by the Atlanta Falcons. Turned out to be a bust and out of the league by 2012.
• 2008 - DE Derrick Harvey: Defensive End drafted by the Jacksonville Jaguar. Also a bust and out of the league by 2011.
• 2009 - OT Eugene Monroe - OT drafted by the Jacksonville Jaguars. Serviceable, but never was a pro-bowler throughout his career. Eventually traded to hte Ravens for a 4th and 5th round pick. More known for advocating medical marijuana after retirement.
• 2010 - LB Rolando McClain - MLB drafted by the Raiders. Retired in 2012, came back, retired again, and so on and so forth. In effect, he's been in trouble multiple times with the law, had drug abuse problems, and pretty much wasted himself out of the NFL.
• 2011 - QB Jake Locker: Retired in 2015. People were actually advocating for the Panthers to get this bum instead of Cam Newton. http://www.carolinahuddle.com/boards/topic/45164-why-not-jake-locker/ 
• 2012 - QB Ryan Tannehill - Underrated QB and pretty good. Been the Dolphin's franchise QB when healthy. Probably won't ever be elite, but he's a starter in this league.
• 2013 - WR Tavon Austin - Not worth an 8th overall. Good for a few jet sweeps, but really never separated himself as a huge threat in the NFL.
• 2014 - CB Justin Gilbert - Another Browns bust. Currently out of the league.
• 2015 - DE Vic Beasley - Been a decent force as of late. Led the NFL in sacks in 2016. Not in the same sentence as the Von Miller and Khalil Macks of today, but can definitely be called elite.
• 2016 - OT Jack Conklin - OT For the Titans. A good - likely franchise - tackle for the Titans. Worthwhile pick. Not elite tier just yet due to average play this year, but very likely to have a solid career.

So, in effect, here's the countdown:

• Elite - Vic Beasley (1)
• Above Average - QB Ryan Tannehill, OT Jack Conklin (2)
• Average - Tavon Austin, Eugene Monroe (2)
• Busts - Justin Gilbert, Jake Locker, Rolando McClain, Derrick Harvey, Jamaal Anderson (5)

So, there's really been one "game-changer" in the past ten years in Vic Beasley, and the only other guy I see on the fringe to joining him is Jack Conklin. Otherwise, you have two average players and five busts. All seven in that group haven't really changed the face of their team much nor separated themselves as threats. 

Based on past history, the 8th overall pick had a 50% chance of busting based on the last ten years. Christian McCaffrey isn't in the elite category, but currently I'd argue he'd be in the above average. He forces defenses to give him attention, has broken a few records, and has just been a consistent football player, even if not flashy. 

So, thoughts?

[t96]

Beasley is not elite. Not even close. Conklin is a monster. Down year this year but still a top 15 OT.

[Car123]

Bu bu but I thought top 10 picks were easy to nail.

Hurney magic.

[Saca312]

8 minutes ago, thomas96 said:

Beasley is not elite. Not even close. Conklin is a monster. Down year this year but still a top 15 OT.

Wouldn't disagree here either.

[L-TownCat]

18 minutes ago, thomas96 said:

Beasley is not elite. Not even close. Conklin is a monster. Down year this year but still a top 15 OT.

Not many “far from” elite players lead the league in anything.  Beasley is a top pass rusher.  Not giving him a gold jacket but dude is good.

 

PS: damn you for making me defend a falcon.

[rayzor]

So he's in good company?

[rippadonn]

McCaffrey and Cam in a year or two will be dangerous. I liked seeing the smoke route the other day. It fits them. 

[Sean Payton's Vicodin]

Yeah that's a lot of busts picked at 8. Shame we couldn't break the trend.

[SeoulPanther]

The thread title is a little bit of a logical fallacy. It's basically saying that because other teams have failed picking at the same spot in completely different drafts, it completely justifies wasting a #8 pick for all teams for eternity. That's nonsense. I have never read anyone on the huddle who demanded an All-Pro at the pick and how could anybody realistically make such a call on CMC not having such a career in future, based on a half season of play? I'm not a fan of the pick but I would never say that he's a bust- that's obviously daft. Equally ridiculous is shooting down anyone who questions the value of picking an RB high or suggesting that expectations of such a pick should be low. Why can't people avoid sensationalism these days?

[csx]

At the same point in their careers the following Panthers would be considered busts by the Huddle

Smith

Moose

Kuechly

Davis

Olsen

Short

Jenkins

Norman

Gamble 

Who else?

 

[MasterAwesome]

Why does everything always have to be a comparison? Why can’t we just evaluate a player on his own merits and what he’s contributing?

 

But if you really do want to make a comparison, then it doesn’t make any sense to compare McCaffrey only to other #8 overall picks...rather he should be compared to every pick from 8 onward. If you’re drafting a player at 8, there are at least as high of expectations for that player than any picked after him. Say hypothetically 10/10 #8 overall picks were busts in the past 10 years and McCaffrey is just an “average” player...but 10/10 #9 overall picks were All-Pros in the last ten years. Does that make McCaffrey a huge success just because he’s performed better than all of the #8 overall picks? I sure as hell hope you don’t believe that.

[Ivan The Awesome]

Why would anyone in their right mind think CMC is a bust?

[uncfan888]

7 hours ago, Car123 said:

Bu bu but I thought top 10 picks were easy to nail.

Hurney magic.

Are you marty or related to him? If you think he's a good GM, your opinion on things is invalid 

[uncfan888]

6 hours ago, Sean Payton's Vicodin said:

Yeah that's a lot of busts picked at 8. Shame we couldn't break the trend.

Labeling McCaffrey a bust after ten games... Lol