Regarding fifth year options

[Mr. Scot]

A reminder that Sam Darnold isn't the only player the Panthers are deciding on, and an analysis that might surprise you (from Breer in the MMQB)

The deadline on fifth-year options for 2018 first-round picks is two weeks from Monday, and I think that none have yet been exercised is telling. Yes, there has been one extension, that one was signed by Raiders LT Kolton Miller. And there are a few others that really are no-brainers (Quenton Nelson, Josh Allen, Bradley Chubb, Denzel Ward, Tremaine Edmunds, Jaire Alexander, Frank Ragnow). But past that? I think the reluctance to pick up the options can be tied to two things, and those two things can be connected. One, the obvious, that these options, under the new CBA, are fully guaranteed (and not just guaranteed for injury until the following March) for the first time. So there won’t be any more cases like Adoree' Jackson’s this year, where a team hedges its bet by picking up the option, then makes the decision to cut him a year later. And two, I think the realities of the 2022 cap come into play here (most expect it to be relatively flat for another year, before a big jump in 2023), and so teams might be waiting to see who they wind up with in the draft to make a final decision on pricey options for next year, especially if the players with option decisions coming have injury issues (Chargers S Derwin James and Cowboys LB Leighton Vander Esch are two examples of that). Also, if you just take a gander at the 2018 first round, there are plenty of guys there who would qualify as close calls—good, but maybe not quite great players (Rashaan Evans, Isaiah Wynn, and D.J. Moore are three names that seem to fit that category).

Edited April 19, 2021 by Mr. Scot

[LinvilleGorge]

Yep, DJ Moore is easily our most underrated player.

[t96]

That’s a joke right...? Moore is a no brainer 5th year option, not a close call

[shaqattaq]

3 minutes ago, t96 said:

That’s a joke right...? Moore is a no brainer 5th year option, not a close call

Yep, and still work on a long term deal, obviously. FWIW, his 5th yr option would be $11.1M.

https://overthecap.com/fifth-year-option-projections/

[top dawg]

I think that he is likely to get that 5th year option, but it may depend upon who we get in the draft. 

Some of you are overly emotional pertaining to Moore IMO, but I've been saying that he has been a "good" not "great" receiver for a while now. I think 2021 will go a long way to determining where he'll be placed on the WR totem pole from not only from the Panthers' perspective, but the entire NFL in general. Either he will rise into the top tier, or he'll be regarded as a good receiver who has hit his ceiling.

[BrianS]

How is DJ even mentioned in that sentence?  Does this person even cover the NFL?  I mean, BOTH of our receivers were in the top 15 last year for receiving yardage.  Our WR's are legit. 

And I can't believe I just said that about the Carolina Panthers.  It's been way too long, but here we are.

 

[LinvilleGorge]

6 minutes ago, top dawg said:

I think that he is likely to get that 5th year option, but it may depend upon who we get in the draft. 

Some of you are overly emotional pertaining to Moore IMO, but I've been saying that he has been a "good" not "great" receiver for a while now. I think 2021 will go a long way to determining where he'll be placed on the WR totem pole from not only from the Panthers' perspective, but the entire NFL in general. Either he will rise into the top tier, or he'll be regarded as a good receiver who has hit his ceiling.

He's been putting up top 10 WR numbers with poor QB play. Some of y'all are still in this mindset that if a guy isn't arguably THE best WR in the NFL, then he's not a #1 WR. The "#1 WR" might be the most mythological beast on this board.

[Ivan The Awesome]

DJ is criminally underrated. People just think TD's are the stat to look at. But this guy is just a YAC machine. Moore's option will be picked up. Not sure why Breer added him to that list. 

[pantherclaw]

Some people just have zero ability to rate a player. 

Can't believe anybody would waste time arguing against Moore. 

 

[t96]

21 minutes ago, top dawg said:

I think that he is likely to get that 5th year option, but it may depend upon who we get in the draft. 

Some of you are overly emotional pertaining to Moore IMO, but I've been saying that he has been a "good" not "great" receiver for a while now. I think 2021 will go a long way to determining where he'll be placed on the WR totem pole from not only from the Panthers' perspective, but the entire NFL in general. Either he will rise into the top tier, or he'll be regarded as a good receiver who has hit his ceiling.

No it won’t. $11M for Moore is a steal, that’s about half what the top WRs make. There’s no chance at all that we don’t pickup his option if he’s not extended before then. Will we pay him big money after that? Maybe not and that will depend on draft picks/free agents in the next couple years, but his option being picked up is a given.

[KSpan]

49 minutes ago, top dawg said:

I think that he is likely to get that 5th year option, but it may depend upon who we get in the draft. 

Some of you are overly emotional pertaining to Moore IMO, but I've been saying that he has been a "good" not "great" receiver for a while now. I think 2021 will go a long way to determining where he'll be placed on the WR totem pole from not only from the Panthers' perspective, but the entire NFL in general. Either he will rise into the top tier, or he'll be regarded as a good receiver who has hit his ceiling.

Honest question - can you name 10-15 receivers you'd rather have/think are notably better than DJ Moore going into 2021? I'd personally put Adams, Hopkins, Julio (though he's on the backside of his career, even if only slightly), and Evans as locks and Hill, Michael Thomas, Diggs, Robinson, Godwin, Thielen, and maybe even Kupp and Woods as arguable/in the same tier where they might do one or two things better but not everything across the board. Of those guys though all of them are older than DJ.

I'll also note that the $11MM number is right around what Samuel and Agholor are averaging per year and just above what Boyd, Fuller, and Shepard are making. Any of those guys on your list?

[Mr. Scot]

1 hour ago, BrianS said:

How is DJ even mentioned in that sentence?  Does this person even cover the NFL?  I mean, BOTH of our receivers were in the top 15 last year for receiving yardage.  Our WR's are legit. 

And I can't believe I just said that about the Carolina Panthers.  It's been way too long, but here we are.

 

Breer is one of the best NFL reporters in the business.

Mind you, that doesn't mean he's always right (nobody is).

[frankw]

2 hours ago, top dawg said:

I think that he is likely to get that 5th year option, but it may depend upon who we get in the draft. 

Some of you are overly emotional pertaining to Moore IMO, but I've been saying that he has been a "good" not "great" receiver for a while now. I think 2021 will go a long way to determining where he'll be placed on the WR totem pole from not only from the Panthers' perspective, but the entire NFL in general. Either he will rise into the top tier, or he'll be regarded as a good receiver who has hit his ceiling.

As a Panthers fan old enough to remember the days of folks declaring David Gettis the next goat I cannot understand why some want so badly to treat DJ Moore like the last kid picked at dodgeball or something. My god just appreciate what ya got!

[Your GFs favorite huddler]

DJ should definitely get the option picked up, it’s a no brainer. 
 

honestly I think the 5th year option is a good tool for teams and has its place in regards to contract negotiations, but as we are seeing with Moton, I think more onus needs to be placed on extending players of this caliber before we get to this point.
 

Unless DJ is just adamant on betting on himself and having a nationally recognized “break out season” then I’m trying to extend him now and save the team some money on the back end. Hopefully fitz is more forward thinking then previous Gms