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Predictions - Panthers at Falcons

Zod

By Zod,
in Carolina Panthers

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glenwo2 Grand Master

glenwo2

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, bigdavis said:

Classic contrarian thinking -- I love it.

After believing that bogus stat about Sam's 888 passing yds through the first three games, I'm now chastened and more realistic.  @LinvilleGorgewas right; I was dead wrong.

Yet there is this: despite the give-up, dejected negativism shown by all you knee-jerk Huddlers, we must remember that the NFL is full of surprises.  While a 4 game losing streak may technically extrapolate to a 14 game losing streak, that is no more guaranteed than an undefeated season was after wk 3.

Let's remind ourselves that the Falcons are a flawed team, too, and no world-beaters.  I don't see Darnold under much pressure, as Atl only has Grady Jarrett as a threat rusher.  Conversely, their OL is way below average, leading to Ryan being under siege and taking a multitude of sacks.

After our humiliation at the hands of the Giants, two things are likely to occur: the Falcons sense an easy pushover, and the Panthers are mad as Hell.

I predict 2 TD passes from Sam, 5-6 sacks by our Defense, and a 27-13 win.

Much like the last game.....and we saw how he fared. 

Sorry but I have zero confidence right now.

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, bigdavis said:

Classic contrarian thinking -- I love it.

After believing that bogus stat about Sam's 888 passing yds through the first three games, I'm now chastened and more realistic.  @LinvilleGorgewas right; I was dead wrong.

Yet there is this: despite the give-up, dejected negativism shown by all you knee-jerk Huddlers, we must remember that the NFL is full of surprises.  While a 4 game losing streak may technically extrapolate to a 14 game losing streak, that is no more guaranteed than an undefeated season was after wk 3.

Let's remind ourselves that the Falcons are a flawed team, too, and no world-beaters.  I don't see Darnold under much pressure, as Atl only has Grady Jarrett as a threat rusher.  Conversely, their OL is way below average, leading to Ryan being under siege and taking a multitude of sacks.

After our humiliation at the hands of the Giants, two things are likely to occur: the Falcons sense an easy pushover, and the Panthers are mad as Hell.

I predict 2 TD passes from Sam, 5-6 sacks by our Defense, and a 27-13 win.

Well, our weakness is rushing defense(19th rated DVOA, 13th in Rush YPG, 23rd in YPC) which matches up well with Atlanta, as they have a bottom 6 rushing offense(31st rated DVOA, 27th in Rush YPG, 29th in YPC). Their passing attack is a little anemic for them(24th rated DVOA, 10th rated Pass YPG) but they also score most of their TD's through the air(80% on the season). That also matches up well with us as we have the 9th best passing defense(DVOA), allow the 7th lowest completion percentage, and allow the 2nd least passing yards per game. This feels like a matchup we should win.

Now for the bad news.....although Atlanta has a bad defense(30th DVOA overall, 30th Pass DVOA, 28th Rush DVOA), we have an equally bad offense(30th DVOA overall, 30th Pass DVOA, 21st rated Rush DVOA). We also average 1.6 giveways per game to their 0.8 takeaways per game. This really appears to be a matter of which team will stink it up the worst. Also, while they appear to be bad offensively, they also protect Matt Ryan well(9th in Adjusted Sack Rate and only 9 sacks allowed all year). This really appears to be a matter of which team will stink it up the worst on offense.

Given our recent games, it is a little hard for me to believe that our offense will be able to muster much, even against a unit this bad. 

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bigdavis Rising Star

bigdavis

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Well, our weakness is rushing defense(19th rated DVOA, 13th in Rush YPG, 23rd in YPC) which matches up well with Atlanta, as they have a bottom 6 rushing offense(31st rated DVOA, 27th in Rush YPG, 29th in YPC). Their passing attack is a little anemic for them(24th rated DVOA, 10th rated Pass YPG) but they also score most of their TD's through the air(80% on the season). That also matches up well with us as we have the 9th best passing defense(DVOA), allow the 7th lowest completion percentage, and allow the 2nd least passing yards per game. This feels like a matchup we should win.

Now for the bad news.....although Atlanta has a bad defense(30th DVOA overall, 30th Pass DVOA, 28th Rush DVOA), we have an equally bad offense(30th DVOA overall, 30th Pass DVOA, 21st rated Rush DVOA). We also average 1.6 giveways per game to their 0.8 takeaways per game. This really appears to be a matter of which team will stink it up the worst. Also, while they appear to be bad offensively, they also protect Matt Ryan well(9th in Adjusted Sack Rate and only 9 sacks allowed all year). This really appears to be a matter of which team will stink it up the worst on offense.

Given our recent games, it is a little hard for me to believe that our offense will be able to muster much, even against a unit this bad. 

Ah, yes, the old stink em up Ratio.  They should have an acronym for that, like DVOA -- let's make it SEUR, for future brevity.🤢

But don't discount that ol' standby, the over-confidence index, the OCI, which definitely favors us this game.

I note Atlanta has not faced a DL like ours yet this year, so their sack protection numbers may be misleading.  And Philly beat them by 26, they've only reached 30 points one time, and they barely squeaked by lowly Miami by 2.  Not a powerhouse.

The more I discuss it, the more confident i become.  Ah, homerism!

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, bigdavis said:

Ah, yes, the old stink em up Ratio.  They should have an acronym for that, like DVOA -- let's make it SEUR, for future brevity.🤢

But don't discount that ol' standby, the over-confidence index, the OCI, which definitely favors us this game.

I note Atlanta has not faced a DL like ours yet this year, so their sack protection numbers may be misleading.  And Philly beat them by 26, they've only reached 30 points one time, and they barely squeaked by lowly Miami by 2.  Not a powerhouse.

The more I discuss it, the more confident i become.  Ah, homerism!

Yeah, I gotta be honest, the more I look at the stats, the more I think we might have a shot at this one. 

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