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Talk to me about the Patriots, what do you know?


Zod
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Mac Jones just generally tries to not fug up for their defense, so we can likely get to him a little. Speaking of, their defense is slightly above average(14th in Pass/Rush DVOA). The offense is a little middling(18th rush and 14th pass DVOA). Their sacks allowed and adjusted sack rate are literally the NFL average.

Mac Jones has faced five top 12 rated(DVOA) pass defenses so far this season and has 2-3 record against them. 

Stats versus top 12 pass defenses: 

244.6 Pass Yds, 1.2 Pass TD, 1.2 INT, 66.1% Completion, 2 sacks, 7.2 rush yds, 0.2 Fumbles Lost

Stats versus non top 12 pass defenses:

258.0 Pass Yds, 1 Pass TD, 0 INT, 71.4% Completion, 1.7 sacks, 6.3 rush yds, 0 Fumbles Lost

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Going to be a loooot of flying Elvis logos in the stands

Everybody knows we're going to try to run the ball and keep PJ's pass attempts down.  If he attempts more than 20 passes we're probably screwed.  If the Patriots can shut down the run Belichick is going to throw every weird look and coverage he has at us and it's going to get ugly, likely with multiple INTs.  That said maybe Brady comes out with PJ slinging the rock to make them respect the pass and it works, but I don't think that's likely.

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11 minutes ago, unicar15 said:

I don’t see any QB on this roster beating Belichick unless our defense forces 3-4 turnovers and we get short fields.

That’s basically the only way we’re beating any competent staff this year until CMC comes back. 

New England has a +1 Turnover Differential on the season, which is 13th in the NFL.

The bigger worry is our offense. New England is tied for 2nd in the NFL in INT's with 10 total. That doesn't bode well for either Darnold or PJ Walker.

On the positive side, they only have the 16th rated rushing defense(by YPG) in the NFL. So, we should be able to run the ball against them.

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45 minutes ago, unicar15 said:

I don’t see any QB on this roster beating Belichick unless our defense forces 3-4 turnovers and we get short fields.

That’s basically the only way we’re beating any competent staff this year until CMC comes back. 

Well supposedly there is a decent chance CMC is back this week so maybe we get lucky?  Although if PJ is starting they're gonna put 9 guys in the box and dare us to pass....

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Just now, joemac said:

Well supposedly there is a decent chance CMC is back this week so maybe we get lucky?  Although if PJ is starting they're gonna put 9 guys in the box and dare us to pass....

I would do the same with Darnold. Frankly, they are probably licking their chops to face our passing offense. 

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Mac Jones will probably be the toughest rookie QB we'll face this year. Heck, he's been steady for Belichick and he doesn't seem like he's struggling to make the move to pro competition.

And that's the scary thing. The rest of the Patriots team seems to be devoid of giant name players but they are still well built, under control and able to handle their jobs. Not a lot of flash, but not a lot of mistakes or weaknesses to exploit.

Our best shot, regardless of our QB, is to make this a run heavy affair again and keep their offense on the bench. They've got a really good pass defense and probably the best way to disable that is to not throw very much at all.

Let's face it, though, as of today, we're really not sure who we will have for personnel at all for this game.

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Gilly revenge game. Or at least that's what I have convinced myself as I need reasons to believe we will win.

They are a good team when it comes to forcing turnovers  and we're a great team when it comes to beating ourselves. Don't think we can "out-coach" the other team. Hopefully we make enough of a impact on the defensive side and establish a run game early. 

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