Probability Analysis of the Burns and DJ decision

[Evil Hurney]

There's been a lot of digital ink spilled over the non-trades of Brian Burns and DJ Moore. The alleged total compensation was 3 1st-round picks and 1 2nd-round pick for the pair. I was curious what probability said regarding the decision.

Assumptions:

• We can spend all the picks at the same time and neglect the year of the draft pick (some were way off in the future making them less valuable)
• Burns and DJ are considered Pro Bowl caliber players; Note that I didn't say All Pro, which is a higher bar
• A 1st round pick becomes a Pro Bowler 44% of the time; Keep in mind WRs and DL have been shown to hit at a much lower rate
• A 2nd round pick becomes a Pro Bower 18% of the time

Background:

I am going to model this using a probability tree where we are essentially rolling a dice for each pick. We have 3 dice weighted for a 1st-round pick (44% success) and 1 dice weighted for a 2nd-round pick (18% success). Once we have 2 success we stop rolling and collect the profit (the extra picks).

Results:

Takeaway:

Within this context the Panthers made the right decision. They have a 41% chance of profiting off the trade (big or small gain) compared to a 52% chance of losing on the trade (big or small loss).

[JawnyBlaze]

Good work explaining what cooler heads have been saying. (Not that I expect the rabble rousers to accept this either)

[Leeroy Jenkins Ph.D.]

Now do the same for the McCaffrey trade. 

[Tr3ach]

13 minutes ago, Evil Hurney said:

There's been a lot of digital ink spilled over the non-trades of Brian Burns and DJ Moore. The alleged total compensation was 3 1st-round picks and 1 2nd-round pick for the pair. I was curious what probability said regarding the decision.

Assumptions:

• We can spend all the picks at the same time and neglect the year of the draft pick (some were way off in the future making them less valuable)
• Burns and DJ are considered Pro Bowl caliber players; Note that I didn't say All Pro, which is a higher bar
• A 1st round pick becomes a Pro Bowler 44% of the time; Keep in mind WRs and DL have been shown to hit at a much lower rate
• A 2nd round pick becomes a Pro Bower 18% of the time

Background:

I am going to model this using a probability tree where we are essentially rolling a dice for each pick. We have 3 dice weighted for a 1st-round pick (44% success) and 1 dice weighted for a 2nd-round pick (18% success). Once we have 2 success we stop rolling and collect the profit (the extra picks).

Results:

Takeaway:

Within this context the Panthers made the right decision. They have a 41% chance of profiting off the trade (big or small gain) compared to a 52% chance of losing on the trade (big or small loss).

I appreciate all the work you put into this but there are some other statistics to weigh,  such as they will be coming off rookie contracts soon.  Also your scale weighs really good players that arent probowlers as 0.   4 solid players on rookie contracts, 3 of them first 5 years might have more value than 2 borderline probowlers on big deals.  You're right statistically with your calculations but you've skewed it a little for your point.

[OnlyPantherFaninMaine]

The Underwriter in me loves this. 

[Untouchable]

This is not a knock on your great work here but just a general comment with these reported trade compensation. It shouldn't be assumed that what was reported was the true compensation either. Could have been equivalent value instead. Or they were only reporting one side of the trade and we would have had to send some picks or players back as well.

[JVic]

Which dice represents Brian Burns going somewhere else, you get nothing and your expectation of profiting drops to 0%?

[Khaki Lackey]

Of course we can easily find a DL replacement. Have we already forgotten how nicely Kony Ealy and Vernon Butler fell into place?

[Wundrbread33]

This analysis paired with your user name is awesome. 

[Wundrbread33]

41 minutes ago, Tr3ach said:

I appreciate all the work you put into this but there are some other statistics to weigh,  such as they will be coming off rookie contracts soon.  Also your scale weighs really good players that arent probowlers as 0.   4 solid players on rookie contracts, 3 of them first 5 years might have more value than 2 borderline probowlers on big deals.  You're right statistically with your calculations but you've skewed it a little for your point.

To be fair, a “solid” player is an abstraction, while a “pro bowl” player is something tangible to perform the calculations.

[Newtcase]

While interesting, this is 2d analysis.  The 3d analysis includes cap impact and the potential that these players walk away for nothing after the 5th year.

[Aussie Tank]

I’m happy keeping Moore but Burns should of been shipped 2 firsts and 2nd in draft capital let alone the pieces we could add through FA with the money he’s gonna command 

[JVic]

7 minutes ago, Newtcase said:

While interesting, this is 2d analysis.  The 3d analysis includes cap impact and the potential that these players walk away for nothing after the 5th year.

Exactly. 

[Ocpanthertew714]

1 hour ago, Evil Hurney said:

There's been a lot of digital ink spilled over the non-trades of Brian Burns and DJ Moore. The alleged total compensation was 3 1st-round picks and 1 2nd-round pick for the pair. I was curious what probability said regarding the decision.

Assumptions:

• We can spend all the picks at the same time and neglect the year of the draft pick (some were way off in the future making them less valuable)
• Burns and DJ are considered Pro Bowl caliber players; Note that I didn't say All Pro, which is a higher bar
• A 1st round pick becomes a Pro Bowler 44% of the time; Keep in mind WRs and DL have been shown to hit at a much lower rate
• A 2nd round pick becomes a Pro Bower 18% of the time

Background:

I am going to model this using a probability tree where we are essentially rolling a dice for each pick. We have 3 dice weighted for a 1st-round pick (44% success) and 1 dice weighted for a 2nd-round pick (18% success). Once we have 2 success we stop rolling and collect the profit (the extra picks).

Results:

Takeaway:

Within this context the Panthers made the right decision. They have a 41% chance of profiting off the trade (big or small gain) compared to a 52% chance of losing on the trade (big or small loss).

Great work!

Question:

Will you help me with my Stats homework?