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The Playoffs

Mr. Scot

By Mr. Scot,
in Carolina Panthers

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CPantherKing Grand Master

CPantherKing

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Brooklyn 3.0 said:

I like his moxie. But yeah, you can't expect much from a guy drafted last.

Not true.

45 franchise QBs per decade. 2 1st rounders go on to win SB and 2 non-1st rounders go on to win SB.

90s gave us Brad Johnson and Kurt Warner. Both did not go in the first 7 rounds. 2000s gave us Tom Brady (6th round) and Drew Brees. 2010s gave us Russell Wilson and Nick Foles.

These are your playoff QBs outside the 1st round over the past 15 seasons: Brock Purdy, Geno Smith, Tyler Huntley, Skylar Thompson, Kirk Cousins, Taylor Heinicke, Dak Prescott, Derek Carr, Jalen Hurts, Jimmy Garoppolo, Case Keenum, Tyrod Taylor, Brock Osweiler, Connor Cook, Matt Moore, Brian Hoyer, AJ McCarron, Tony Romo, Ryan Lindley, Andy Dalton, Collin Kaepernick, Matt Schaub, Joe Webb, TJ Yates, Matt Hasselbeck, Matt Cassel, Kurt Warner, Brett Favre, Jake Delhomme, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Nick Foles, Russell Wilson, and Tarvaris Jackson.

(Day 2 - Day 3; 4th/5th - Day 3 6th/7th - Undrafted or later rounds)

34 of 73 playoff QBs in the past 15 seasons have come from outside the 1st round

1 of every 5 non-1st round QBs are undrafted. 1 of 2 are 6th round or later.

1 of every 4 playoff QBs come from the 6th round or later.

Clearly, this is not rare.

While more 1st round QBs get to the playoffs, non-1st round QBs who get to the playoffs have a better chance at winning the SB. When you factor in a QB winning a SB for the team that drafted them, non-1st round QBs have a slight advantage. Of Non-1st round QBs in the playoffs, 6th round to undrafted QBs have the same rate of success as their 2nd to 5th round counterparts.

The Panthers have had 8 of these playoff QBs on their roster. 4 of them were from the 1st round, 1 was from the 6th round, and 3 were undrafted. The 1st round QBs have a playoff record of .412 with 7 wins, and the non-1st rounders have a .500 playoff record with 6 wins.

You can run this with every NFL team. You may find 2 of the 32 teams that do not follow this pattern. Steelers are one of these teams. Steelers are an outlier as an organization and trying to copy their blueprint over the decades is a tall and foolish task.

If anything, there are a fair amount of QBs who could be among the top of the NFL QBs and they are overlooked and never given an opportunity to prove they can win/succeed at the NFL level.

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