Situational QBR, Completion, and off target percentages for rookie QB class

[AggieLean]

You get Levis outside of the pocket and you’re golden. Best thing for Hooker is going to a team that’s already pretty good, that has a good to great o line. His numbers when pressured…yikes. Otherwise, solid numbers.

Its clear Young and Stroud are the cream of the crop 

[Basbear]

Both young and stroud have shown everything you want from a rookie QB.......just one difference between the two and it is a deal breaker...

[Jackie Lee]

49 minutes ago, AggieLean said:

You get Levis outside of the pocket and you’re golden. Best thing for Hooker is going to a team that’s already pretty good, that has a good to great o line. His numbers when pressured…yikes. Otherwise, solid numbers.

Its clear Young and Stroud are the cream of the crop 

Get Levis in the pocket and your'e also golden

 

[Proudiddy]

For as bad as I thought it looked for Stroud from outside the pocket, seeing Young's struggles on out routes is far, far worse.  Pair that with his work inside the pocket and I really, really hope he's not the pick.

[jfra78]

3 hours ago, amcoolio said:

In the Hurts draft I thought he was underrated and failed to see why everyone considered him a 2nd round QB at the max, the dude was a born winner and was going to make it work.

Same with Hooker. Teams at the end of the 1st that need a future QB would be very dumb to pass on him. He should not make it past Tampa at 19

Yea I think Hooker's gonna be that guy everyone regrets passing on.  I still want Stroud

[rodeo]

whoever drafts Richardson should innovate a new offense where the QB lines up  already outside the pocket.

[Ornias]

I am calling Hooker to Baltimore or NE. 

[Jon Snow]

Sounds like to me they should draft Hooker. 

[Shocker]

1 hour ago, rodeo said:

whoever drafts Richardson should innovate a new offense where the QB lines up  already outside the pocket.

He is basically picking a RB at #1.  Sounds like a fantastic idea

[jb2288]

2 hours ago, Proudiddy said:

For as bad as I thought it looked for Stroud from outside the pocket, seeing Young's struggles on out routes is far, far worse.  Pair that with his work inside the pocket and I really, really hope he's not the pick.

This is such a “mind already made up” blind response yikes 

[Proudiddy]

1 minute ago, jb2288 said:

This is such a “mind already made up” blind response yikes 

You're right.  I'm making my assessment off of what I've seen and pairing it with numbers such as these.  He was an outstanding college QB.  I think his ceiling is a solid starter in the NFL, but not a franchise-changing winning QB.

And again, whether it's Stroud or Richardson, would you rather have a bigger canvas that still has a ton of room to create a masterpiece, or a portrait-sized canvas that doesn't have a single speck of area not already painted on.  Aside from injury concerns bc of his frame, Bryce Young is naturally going to be more limited than Stroud or Richardson in terms of potential growth.

[panther4life]

Just went back and looked at the 2020 and 2021 draft classes and compared the rankings against the top of those classes.

 I narrowed it down to Burrow,Tua, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, Lawrence, Mac Jones, Justin Fields, Young and Stroud

First of all Jones was the overall winner, so that may poo all over these stats. Anyway here's the ranking of all 9 in key categories from their final season before being drafted:

In the pocket QBR

• 1.Tua 96.2
• 2.Jones 95.8
• 3.Hurts 94
• 4.Burrow 93.2
• 5.Fields 88.4
• 6.Stroud 86.3
• 7.Young 82.6
• 8.Lawrence 79.8
• 9.Herbert 78.8

Out of pocket QBR

• 1. Young 95.7
• 2. Burrow 94.6
• 3. Jones 93.9
• 4. Hurts 89.1
• 5. Fields 71.2
• 6. Stroud 69
• 7. Lawrence 66
• 8. Herbert 37.3
• 9. Tua 34.8

QBR When pressured

• 1. Burrow 82.6
• 2. Jones 78.3
• 3. Tua 44.1
• 4. Hurts 38.8
• 5. Lawrence 34.4
• 6. Stroud 30.6
• 7. Young 30.1
• 8. Fields 22.6
• 9. Herbert 16.3

Deep ball off target % 20+ yards downfield (lower the better obviously)

• 1. Jones 17.4
• 2. Lawrence 23.7 
• 3. Burrow 24.6 
• 4. Young 25 
• 5. Hurts 25.9
• 6. Fields 27.3
• 7. Stroud 32
• 8. Herbert 38
• 9. Tua 40

Out route off target 11-20 yard downfield%

• 1. Fields 4.4
• 2. Hurts 10.5
• 3. Lawrence 11.9
• 4. Stroud 13.3
• 5. Jones 14.8
• 6. Herbert 19.1
• 7. Young 22.2
• 8. Burrow 29.6 
• 9. Tua 30

Intermediate downfield off target % (11-20 yards downfield)

• 1. Fields 6.9
• 2. Jones 7.6 
• 3. Lawrence 8.4
• 4. Young 11.9
• 5. Tua 12.5
• 6. Hurts 14.1
• 7. Burrow 14.4
• 8. Stroud  17
• 9. Herbert 19.1

If you scored these metrics based on ranking in each of the above as a total sum ranking (lower the better, for example if you were ranked number 1 in all 6 of these categories your total would be 6)

• 1. Jones 15
• 2. Hurts 24
• 3. Burrow 25
• 4. Fields 2,
• 5. Lawrence 28
• 6.Young 30
• 7. Tua 36
• 8. Stroud 37 
• 9. Herbert 49 

 

 

 

 

 

[Beast_3000]

4 hours ago, Proudiddy said:

For as bad as I thought it looked for Stroud from outside the pocket, seeing Young's struggles on out routes is far, far worse.  Pair that with his work inside the pocket and I really, really hope he's not the pick.

I was thinking the EXACT same thing. An out route is a very common pass at the Pro level. Certain coverages bait you to throw it over the middle. 
 

I wanted to see film and delve a tad deeper before jumping to conclusion but my first thought was yikes. 
 

[Ivory Panther]

9 hours ago, MHS831 said:

that is what I wanted to see the most---thanks for providing this information OP

From these numbers, you can see how close Young and Stroud really are. 

QBR

Both are significantly better than the average NCAA QB in terms of QB rating.  In these 4 categories, Young is +25.2 above the FBS average and Stroud is +18.4 above the FBS average.  When compared to each other, Young has a fairly significant advantage when facing a blitz (+4.6 Young) and a tremendous advantage throwing outside the pocket (+26.7).  When inside the pocket, Stroud has a slightly less significant QBR advantage (+3.7 Stroud).  The ability outside the pocket is the biggest advantage for Young.  Without that category, the QBs are pretty even.

COMPLETION/OFF TARGET %

Here I will summarize--first, I found it interesting that Stroud had a higher percentage of deep balls completed (+5%) over Young, but Young's deep passes were on target more often (7.7%) That means three of four of Young's passes over 21 yards were catchable balls, while Stroud can say that over two out of three were catchable.  That suggests that Stroud had the better receivers.

Young has a red flag in that his completion percentage on deep outs from the pocket was 40%--about 8% below the FBS average and 26% lower than Stroud.  That is an important pass to throw in the NFL.  However, his off target percentage for the same throw was 5.1% better than Stroud's, so that makes little sense. Were Bama WRs and TEs that much worse that Buckeyes'?  Young has a significant accuracy advantage on the short throws, while Stroud is worse than FBS average.

From this perspective, I think these QBs are close, but I would give Young the advantage only after looking into his performance on deep sideline routes. I am sure the Panthers will be watching film and testing his arm strength to make that throw on time from the pocket.  Young's accuracy numbers are significantly higher than his completion percentages.  I would be happy with either QB.

Hooker belongs in the Richardson/Levis category, based on these stats

 

U have to take the cast they play with & level of competition in consideration. 
 

that’s why it’s tough to compare college players to each other…these numbers need to be looked with a lot of nuance.