Highest Roster Turnover in the NFL

[Leeroy Jenkins Ph.D.]

There tends to be a strong correlation between roster retention and success in the NFL. There are many reasons for this correlation. Teams with above average players tend to hold on to those players, and consistency and familiarity go a long way towards improved performance. Most research done on roster retention/turnover look at the entire 53 man roster. Higher rates of roster retention are around 80%, while the lowest rates are around 40%. 

The Carolina Panthers are on their way to having one of the highest roster turnover rates in the past 5 years. Following the draft, where the Panthers have 6 picks in the top 5 rounds, it is expected that the Panthers may have an overall roster retention percentage in the 30's. 

On Offense, the Panthers are looking at possible new starters at 3 of 5 offensive line positions (LG, C, and RG), and 2 of 3 starting WRs. Possible additions at TE or RB in the draft may increase this turnover. This does not even account for an entirely new offensive scheme installed by a new HC and Offensive Coordinator. 

On Defense, the Panthers are looking at a new starters at  3 of 4 Linebacker positions, a new DE, a new FS, and at minimum one new CB starter. Again, these numbers are likely to increase following the draft. 

The biggest takeaway from this, IMO is that history is not on the Panthers side for a successful 2024 campaign. Bare minimum 9 out of 22 starting players will be different from the 2023 squad.  However, when you win 2 games in the season, sitting back and expecting different results from the same process is lunacy. With every new player and scheme there is an inherent risk or gamble.  We have rolled the dice an extremely large number of times. If by chance, these gambles pay off, we will have a chance to compete. However, there is an extremely high variability rate in our chance for success, higher than most teams in the NFL, which is, at a bare minimum, a cause for optimism. 

[Daeavorn]

Thats what happens when your roster sucks. We have a lot of people to replace that sucked.

[LinvilleGorge]

Feels like a bit of a false premise to me.

Yeah, good teams are generally going to be made up of better players and those teams are going to seek to retain as many of those good players as they can. Bad teams are generally going to be made up of lesser players and those teams are going to seek to replace as many of those lesser players as they can. 

It all starts with acquiring the right talent IMO. Talent retention is a follow up step to that initial step.

Then you have our constant coach/regime changes and the inherent different roster preferences that's going to bring with it.

Long story short, were a poo show of an organization and we display all the qualities you'd expect to see from a poo show organization.

[Jackie Lee]

Turning over the roster to see if Bryce is actually a bust or not while switching coaches leaves you in a situation where once again for the second year in a row we won't really know who is to blame. 2 years with absolutely no baseline to judge anything from 

[raleigh-panther]

1 minute ago, Jackie Lee said:

Turning over the roster to see if Bryce is actually a bust or not while switching coaches leaves you in a situation where once again for the second year in a row we won't really know who is to blame. 2 years with absolutely no baseline to judge anything from 

I have the impression that Bryce needs to show vast improvement this year 

[Jackie Lee]

2 minutes ago, raleigh-panther said:

I have the impression that Bryce needs to show vast improvement this year 

Yeah the general national media has been like you have to be good this year dude

[Jon Snow]

This is what happens when you have been complete ass at drafting and developing players. Also they suck at picking the right FA's to sign and when to do so. On top of that they suck at the cap allocations and who to extend and who to let walk. 

Edited April 3 by Jon Snow

[WUnderhill]

I’ve never seen a whole roster more deserving of being poo canned. Well earned.

[rayzor]

well run organizations don't have a lot of turnover.

we haven't been in years.

but sometimes for a organization to have a chance at being well run, they have to have a lot of turnover in a short amount of time to get the right people in.

i hope that's where we're at now.

[BrianS]

I think the original premise is flawed.  I think a stronger correlation can probably be drawn between drafting and success.  How many of your draft picks make the team?  How many of them contribute meaningful snaps to the team?  Seven successful picks per draft and you can turn over half your roster for free in four years. 

 

Hopefully you follow up by retaining the ones who want to be there and let the guys looking for bank walk.  The premise is easy and obvious, but executing it seems like what separates the good teams from the bad.

[Navy_football]

New coaching staff. They should get their guys. Didn't do that last season with the defense, so getting it done this off season. Nothing worked on offense so new OC should build the offense his way. Shouldn't be hamstrung working with pieces from the previous regime's philosophy and schemes. Panthers made changes where practical and possible to upgrade and fit scheme. This is not a bad thing.

[Johnstonny]

22 minutes ago, WUnderhill said:

I’ve never seen a whole roster more deserving of being poo canned. Well earned.

Yep...use to have 3-4 players on each side of the ball to get really excited about....cant really say that anymore especially on the offensive side.

[pantherclaw]

Hire new janitors too, this poo show has to be cleaned up. 

[cmichd08]

47 minutes ago, Jackie Lee said:

Turning over the roster to see if Bryce is actually a bust or not while switching coaches leaves you in a situation where once again for the second year in a row we won't really know who is to blame. 2 years with absolutely no baseline to judge anything from 

They have no choice since they fired Wright in mid season. Maybe with the new staff in place and at least two years of the same coaching we can see what we have. We will know if Tepper made the wrong choice when the team made the choice to go after Young instead of Stroud. We might have had a win or two more with Stroud last year, but we still wouldn't have had our number 1 pick for this year either.