Jump to content
  • Welcome!

    Register and log in easily with Twitter or Google accounts!

    Or simply create a new Huddle account. 

    Members receive fewer ads , access our dark theme, and the ability to join the discussion!

     

Why the Panthers might Draft Herbert


MHS831

Recommended Posts

 This is not to bash Cam or promote my views on what the Cats should do---I simply try to analyze the big picture.  Some of you will not be able to get past that.  I understand--no, I really don't.  Here is what we know (please add to this list if you think of something I forgot or did not know):

1.  The quarterback position in Carolina is shrouded in uncertainty, and there does not seem to be a player on the roster ready to become an NFL starter---since Cam has been injured for the past 2 seasons and is now recovering from surgery, he is included on this list of question marks. If he comes in and cannot perform as in the past, that would mean that he was hurt for most of his current contract--not a bargain as some of you suggest.  You can't build on that.

2.  The team has indirectly suggested that Cam will return, but with caveats--Cam vaguely shared these with the media when he mentioned 100%. Ideally, a healthy Cam in 2020 is the best plan--but so might a trade if he is healthy--if you think beyond 2020.  Cam is positive so we expect it from him, and keeping him on for a year could be advantageous for both parties.  However, if the plan is to develop the QB of the future to grow in a long-term process, giving a 31-year old QB who has an injury history and can no longer run like he once did is almost detrimental to the process.  If healthy, one season while the rookie develops is a good idea on paper--one season that gives the team a chance to address and work out the OL issues. 

3.  There is no guarantee that your draft position lands you the QB you need in 2021.   At least with the  7th pick, we know there is a good chance we get a top QB.   I have spent January and part of February relieved that we would not be tempted to take the Herbert bait.  But then came the SR Bowl.  Not that it changed his history, but it caused me to re-examine him.  I imagine the Panthers did the same thing.

4.  There is reason to think the Panthers will address OL, but not Tackle.  They have Little, and regardless of what we say about him, high second rounders are not dismissed so quickly.  All I know is at the EW all-star game, they interviewed 2 WRs, a TE, and a G.  There are no IOL worth the #7 pick.  While a majority here seem to want that franchise LT,  Thomas has been slipping on the websites maintained by people who don't know squat--but there has to be a reason.  So without a T, and if Brown is off the board or not, will they pass on a top QB?  I know, Herbert sucks in your expert analysis, and I know, Walter sucks....everybody sucks.   But this is based on facts and it demonstrates the sentiment of a lot of experts after Mobile.

" 1/30/20: In 2019, Herbert completed 67 percent of his passes for 3,471 yards with 32 touchdowns and six interceptions. He scored four rushing touchdown too, but Oregon didn't run run him as much. The senior has all the physical tools to be a good NFL starter with a powerful arm, mobility and accuracy. When Herbert is given time, he is utterly deadly in his ability to carve up a defense. He is not a vocal leader, and some teams want their quarterback to be that kind of presence in the huddle, on the sideline, and in the locker room. Herbert had a solid week at the Senior Bowl, and team sources told me that he interviewed well there. "

So what is there not to like? The numbers are there---the tools are there.  Would we regret it one day for not taking a QB in the draft when our situation was so murky at the time?

5. If the Panthers were going to take a QB, would they say that the are not? Probably.  The stakes are high early in the draft.  Even Cincinnati is throwing out mixed signals. Why would the Panthers let everyone know what they plan to do? 

To me, Herbert is the only player that makes this point somewhat feasible.  You have a QB with all the tools--he just needs a clean pocket. He has a "powerful arm, mobility, and accuracy,"  If he check out during the interviews, what more is there?  A year to develop behind a veteran. 

So maybe we have discounted the possibility of taking a QB too soon.  No, I do not believe the Panthers have committed to Cam beyond a "We will keep you for 2020 if you are healthy," and I do not believe they would say that they do not like any of the QBs in this year's draft--and if they did---more reason to suspect they will.

The thing is, nobody knows.  This is not 2015, when the decision would be a no brainer.  There are so many unknowns--so many variables--and if they fall in love with Herbert, this could happen.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

 This is not to bash Cam or promote my views on what the Cats should do---I simply try to analyze the big picture.  Some of you will not be able to get past that.  I understand--no, I really don't.  Here is what we know (please add to this list if you think of something I forgot or did not know):

1.  The quarterback position in Carolina is shrouded in uncertainty, and there does not seem to be a player on the roster ready to become an NFL starter---since Cam has been injured for the past 2 seasons and is now recovering from surgery, he is included on this list of question marks. If he comes in and cannot perform as in the past, that would mean that he was hurt for most of his current contract--not a bargain as some of you suggest.  You can't build on that.

2.  The team has indirectly suggested that Cam will return, but with caveats--Cam vaguely shared these with the media when he mentioned 100%. Ideally, a healthy Cam in 2020 is the best plan--but so might a trade if he is healthy--if you think beyond 2020.  Cam is positive so we expect it from him, and keeping him on for a year could be advantageous for both parties.  However, if the plan is to develop the QB of the future to grow in a long-term process, giving a 31-year old QB who has an injury history and can no longer run like he once did is almost detrimental to the process.  If healthy, one season while the rookie develops is a good idea on paper--one season that gives the team a chance to address and work out the OL issues. 

3.  There is no guarantee that your draft position lands you the QB you need in 2021.   At least with the  7th pick, we know there is a good chance we get a top QB.   I have spent January and part of February relieved that we would not be tempted to take the Herbert bait.  But then came the SR Bowl.  Not that it changed his history, but it caused me to re-examine him.  I imagine the Panthers did the same thing.

4.  There is reason to think the Panthers will address OL, but not Tackle.  They have Little, and regardless of what we say about him, high second rounders are not dismissed so quickly.  All I know is at the EW all-star game, they interviewed 2 WRs, a TE, and a G.  There are no IOL worth the #7 pick.  While a majority here seem to want that franchise LT,  Thomas has been slipping on the websites maintained by people who don't know squat--but there has to be a reason.  So without a T, and if Brown is off the board or not, will they pass on a top QB?  I know, Herbert sucks in your expert analysis, and I know, Walter sucks....everybody sucks.   But this is based on facts and it demonstrates the sentiment of a lot of experts after Mobile.

" 1/30/20: In 2019, Herbert completed 67 percent of his passes for 3,471 yards with 32 touchdowns and six interceptions. He scored four rushing touchdown too, but Oregon didn't run run him as much. The senior has all the physical tools to be a good NFL starter with a powerful arm, mobility and accuracy. When Herbert is given time, he is utterly deadly in his ability to carve up a defense. He is not a vocal leader, and some teams want their quarterback to be that kind of presence in the huddle, on the sideline, and in the locker room. Herbert had a solid week at the Senior Bowl, and team sources told me that he interviewed well there. "

So what is there not to like? The numbers are there---the tools are there.  Would we regret it one day for not taking a QB in the draft when our situation was so murky at the time?

5. If the Panthers were going to take a QB, would they say that the are not? Probably.  The stakes are high early in the draft.  Even Cincinnati is throwing out mixed signals. Why would the Panthers let everyone know what they plan to do? 

To me, Herbert is the only player that makes this point somewhat feasible.  You have a QB with all the tools--he just needs a clean pocket. He has a "powerful arm, mobility, and accuracy,"  If he check out during the interviews, what more is there?  A year to develop behind a veteran. 

So maybe we have discounted the possibility of taking a QB too soon.  No, I do not believe the Panthers have committed to Cam beyond a "We will keep you for 2020 if you are healthy," and I do not believe they would say that they do not like any of the QBs in this year's draft--and if they did---more reason to suspect they will.

The thing is, nobody knows.  This is not 2015, when the decision would be a no brainer.  There are so many unknowns--so many variables--and if they fall in love with Herbert, this could happen.

 

 

I dont want my franchise quarterback introverted

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

One read dink and dunker. Maybe he's capable of doing more, but that's what he did at Oregon.

By all accounts he is the most skilled QB in the draft. All the questions about him seem to be intangible based. I actually think he may end up being the best of this class.

 

That said....don't want. ESPECIALLY at 7.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

One read dink and dunker. Maybe he's capable of doing more, but that's what he did at Oregon.

Read the other day that was just their system, said that he would and should fare much better in a vertical passing system.

Also, this is lying time in the NFL and I don't believe a word coming from ANYONE'S mouth.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I get that looking at the two rarified all star QB prospects in this class and taking the 3rd guy can be frustrating, but it's for that same reason he merits strong consideration

 

We have the 7th pick, not the 1st, nor are we going to have the 1st next season. In a normal draft class that doesn't feature two rarified, all star QB prospects, Herbert would be the 1st pick in the draft.

To get a QB who would go normally #1 overall at #7 (or 5 or whatever) is something you cant turn down, period, and would only do so if the team just genuinely hated Herbert as a prospect.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


  • PMH4OWPW7JD2TDGWZKTOYL2T3E.jpg

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Sorta related.  I just looked up a stat:  Success rates for NFL draft's second rounders.  I was surprised that it is 49%.  The success rate for first rounders is 58%.   Here success does not mean those that did not bust, it means that roughly half of the players selected in the second round become full-time starters at some point in their careers.  Busts do that too.  However, considering the fact that a first round talent is worth up to 1800 points (first overall pick) more than the first pick of the second round and as low as 350 points (last pick in first round) higher than the last pick in round 2, it seems there could be cases in which it would be to your advantage to trade out of round 1 and draft two or three second rounders for the value.  Of course, the elite players are likely to be gone, and some positions overwhelmingly suck after round 1 (traditionally, like QB or LT, for example), but if you need to find starters at positions like DT, G, LB, S, C, TE, RB, etc, there could be a time when you trade back for more starters.  I was surprised that the margin between rounds 1 and 2 was only 9%.    While I realize that some of you sofa scholars are thinking, "Well duh?  Trading back gives you more players." as you wipe the Cheetos off your shirt.  Not the point.  The point is you have to consider the draft,the needs (and the number of them), and you need to scout the second and third rounds like you do the first, the cap, and the long-term impact.  If you can find 2 players with a 49% chance of becoming a starter, are you better off than drafting one player who has a 58% chance in the long term? So if I traded away my first rounder for two second rounders (a trade most teams would make) regularly, when I got 10 second rounders (by trading 5 first rounders), 5 would be starters.  If I did not trade and kept my 5 first rounders, 3 would be starters.  Furthermore, their rookie contracts would be much cheaper than the 5 first rounders. 
    • These are the three deep throw attempts that Will Levis made in week 12. His first one is a beauty; Levis and Westbrook-Ikhine gets the safety to bite on a deep dig only to go over the top for the score. His second throw is another beauty: a crosser to Calvin Ridley reminiscent of Bryce to XL (though Ridley has noticeably more separation on his route). His third and final deep shot was an incompletion from his own endzone on 3rd & 14 with pressure coming down on him (to me, this seems like a solid throw).   Film Room Playlist NFL Pro-02.mp4 Film Room Playlist NFL Pro-01.mp4 Film Room Playlist NFL Pro.mp4 Film Room Playlist NFL Pro-01.mp4 Levis took half of the deep shots that Young did. The differences are: Ridley had much better separation than XL, which is why his deep crosser turned into a 63yd play since he was able to scamper for another 15+ after the catch. Westbrook-Ikhine holds on to his TD pass. Bryce had to throw one away to preserve time for a field goal. Bryce had two more throws that were incomplete due to the WR Are we really holding the three WR errors and clock management decision against Bryce in order to say that Will was better throwing deep in week 12? That's not passing the eye test nor is it confirmed by the data.
×
×
  • Create New...