Jump to content

  • Welcome!

    Register and log in easily with Twitter or Google accounts!

    Or simply create a new Huddle account. 

    Members receive fewer ads , access our dark theme, and the ability to join the discussion!

     

The Past 10 years of First Round QB Drafting

CarolinaSunday

By CarolinaSunday,
in 2015 NFL Draft

 Share

Recommended Posts

CarolinaSunday Explorer

CarolinaSunday

Posted
Posted

There is a lot of discussion in the various threads about whether the Panthers should draft a QB at #8, go after a free agent, or trade for a QB (you know who I mean).  Threads have popped up about what it would likely cost to trade for a QB and whether any of the upcoming free agents are worth taking a shot on.  

To help round out the discussion, I made a chart (I love charts) of the QBs who have been drafted in the first round in the past ten years and how long they were with their respective teams.  It was interesting to me that the earliest draft in which a QB was still with the team that drafted him was *2016*.  Although there are earlier drafted QBs still in the league, and some of them are still starting somewhere, I think you can see there are not a lot of barn burners here. I think drafting a QB is a crap shoot and you don't really know what you're going to end up with.

Of this list, I see 4 QBs who made it to the SB (depending on how you count Carson Wentz, I counted him since he was a large reason why they made it) and 1 QB who has won the SB (did not count Wentz here since he did not play). (Josh Allen could be added to this tabulation this year, we'll see).

And 2013... woof, man.

image.thumb.png.03a7d770008ea8a8148a6b191818a2ca.png

 

  • Pie 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
AU-panther Mentor

AU-panther

Posted
Posted

Everyone loves to point out that a lot of QBs in the first don't work out but you also need to look at all of the QBs drafted in rounds 2-7 and see how many times they work out.

The first round doesn't guarantee you that you are going to right about the QB you draft but drafting one after the first almost guarantees you are going to be wrong.

  • Pie 6
  • Beer 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
KSpan Grand Master

KSpan

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, AU-panther said:

Everyone loves to point out that a lot of QBs in the first don't work out but you also need to look at all of the QBs drafted in rounds 2-7 and see how many times they work out.

The first round doesn't guarantee you that you are going to right about the QB you draft but drafting one after the first almost guarantees you are going to be wrong.

Exactly. Also, looks like 23 of the Week 17 starting QBs (I'm including Mahomes, Burrow, and Ben here since they'd typically be starting) were all drafted in the first round (I'm also including Brees since he was pick 32, but that was top of Rd 2 back then). Another 2 were picked at picks 35 (Dalton) and 36 (Carr); excluding Dalton since he's a backup would drop the total to 22. From there guys like Lock, Henne, and Hurts were 2nd round picks.

Wilson, Brady, and Cousins are the only quality starters chosen outside of the first round.

I'm not making any definitive statements, but the Week 17 data support your premise. 

  • Pie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
WarHeel Mentor

WarHeel

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

Everyone loves to point out that a lot of QBs in the first don't work out but you also need to look at all of the QBs drafted in rounds 2-7 and see how many times they work out.

The first round doesn't guarantee you that you are going to right about the QB you draft but drafting one after the first almost guarantees you are going to be wrong.

I don’t know too many people vouching for drafting a QB after the first. Most arguing against drafting one in the first are doing so on the notion that you need to sell the farm to do so. 

  • Pie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Waldo Grand Master

Waldo

Posted
Posted

Just shows me you need to take the leap if the draft has quality options because there are years where signing a random vet and just having fun is better than letting your need push you into drafting a dud. 10-16, holy cow we lucked in with Cam. 

  • Pie 2
  • Beer 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
BrianS Veteran

BrianS

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, AU-panther said:

Everyone loves to point out that a lot of QBs in the first don't work out but you also need to look at all of the QBs drafted in rounds 2-7 and see how many times they work out.

The first round doesn't guarantee you that you are going to right about the QB you draft but drafting one after the first almost guarantees you are going to be wrong.

I did this math a while back.

Round 1 QB's generally make it about 50% of the time (48% to be exact) over the last 25 years.

Round 2-7 QB's generally make it about 11% of the time over the last 25 years.

  • Pie 1
  • Beer 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
AU-panther Mentor

AU-panther

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, BrianS said:

I did this math a while back.

Round 1 QB's generally make it about 50% of the time (48% to be exact) over the last 25 years.

Round 2-7 QB's generally make it about 11% of the time over the last 25 years.

out of curiosity what was the standards for "making it"?

I would have thought it was even less for both categories.

 

Edited by AU-panther
spelling
Link to comment
Share on other sites
J.B. Explorer

J.B.

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, CarolinaSunday said:

There is a lot of discussion in the various threads about whether the Panthers should draft a QB at #8, go after a free agent, or trade for a QB (you know who I mean).  Threads have popped up about what it would likely cost to trade for a QB and whether any of the upcoming free agents are worth taking a shot on.  

To help round out the discussion, I made a chart (I love charts) of the QBs who have been drafted in the first round in the past ten years and how long they were with their respective teams.  It was interesting to me that the earliest draft in which a QB was still with the team that drafted him was *2016*.  Although there are earlier drafted QBs still in the league, and some of them are still starting somewhere, I think you can see there are not a lot of barn burners here. I think drafting a QB is a crap shoot and you don't really know what you're going to end up with.

Of this list, I see 4 QBs who made it to the SB (depending on how you count Carson Wentz, I counted him since he was a large reason why they made it) and 1 QB who has won the SB (did not count Wentz here since he did not play). (Josh Allen could be added to this tabulation this year, we'll see).

And 2013... woof, man.

image.thumb.png.03a7d770008ea8a8148a6b191818a2ca.png

 

Would love to see the data on rounds 2-7 of the same time period 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • PMH4OWPW7JD2TDGWZKTOYL2T3E.jpg

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • strato
      J Person article on Canales and game plan and Rico

      By strato · Posted

      I think you know. Apparently winning is secondary to Bryce’s development. Same as it has been.     In a way it may be good because we didn’t need to make the playoffs and extend this fuging charade about Bryce being the guy. Better in the long run if he gets enough rope to hang himself with. 
    • Daddy_Uncle
      We have a Dave Canales Problem

      By Daddy_Uncle · Posted

      Dave Canales is not the problem. He just isn't 
    • SmokinwithWilly
      We have a Dave Canales Problem

      By SmokinwithWilly · Posted

      I know DC is overthinking this and he really needs to be OC or HC, but how do you call plays with a QB that in all reality, shouldn't be starting. Bryce is wildly inconsistent. He should lean on Rico and the run game, but if he does and wins, it presents a false narrative that Bryce is better than he is and he's potentially stuck with him for another season. If he doesn't, he looks incompetent as a play caller, but it exposes the ugly side of his QB situation that he really does need a QB that can execute at minimum a basic NFL offense with some decent consistency.  I feel a little sorry for the guy because he was anchored with Young this season and even more weight with Dalton getting a 2 year deal. He has very little to work with at the most important position on his team and it's not his doing. The trade deadline was approaching and it was plainly obvious we needed to do something but we didn't for whatever reason.  I don't think he's a complete bonehead and don't know what he's supposed to do. Win games and potentially keep Bryce or lose them by putting the weight on Bryce's shoulders. Either he succeeds or fails.  As a coach I know you're supposed to play to win the game, but do you win now at the ultimate long term detriment to your team and locker room? 
×
×
  • Create New...