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ESPN Analytics' simulation. You're not gonna like it...maybe

top dawg

By top dawg,
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top dawg Grand Master

top dawg

Posted
Posted

Ahem. ESPN used some fancy Analytics, their Football Power Index (FPI) to simulate all 285 games 20,000 times, and for some reason they chose to publish this one as their main projection. Now, of course, they qualify it by saying things never go to plan, but yet they put it out there anyway. Honestly, I generally don't even give projections the time of day, but being that I don't have any idea what to expect this season, I said "What the hell." Plus, I think we may get some interesting--even if expected and routine--responses. Anyway, in addition to below, the Bills defeat the Packers in the Super Bowl (salt in wound), and the Jets get not one, but two picks (3 & 4) in the top five. 

Panthers earn the No. 1 overall pick

There was a moment, early in the season, when it looked like the Sam Darnold experiment was going to work out and that offensive coordinator Joe Brady had fixed the mess that Adam Gase (Darnold's former coach in New York) had made. The Carolina Panthers opened the season 4-1, first beating Darnold's old Jets team in Week 1 and then going on to earn wins against the Saints, Texans and Eagles (with a loss to the Cowboys). But those opponents were not that tough, and the 4-1 record was a mirage.

Coach Matt Rhule's team would win just one more game the rest of the way (against the Falcons) and end the season at 5-12 and in a dramatic five-way tie for the NFL's worst record. Carolina needed to lose in its final week to win the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker and earn the No. 1 overall pick -- and it did, as the Bucs beat Carolina 33-7.

Darnold is under contract with the Panthers through the 2022 season, but Carolina would likely be taking serious looks at Spencer Rattler, Sam Howell and the rest of the 2022 class' top QBs come next April if things play out like this.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/32133086/simulating-2021-nfl-season-projecting-285-games-biggest-storylines-super-bowl-winner?device=featurephone

Have fun!

 

 

 

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LinvilleGorge Grand Master

LinvilleGorge

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1 minute ago, Carl Spackler said:

I definitely won’t be shocked if we’re picking first, but Sam Howell is going to have to do a lot more this season to prove he’s any better an option than the last Sam Howell (Mitch Trubisky)

The only resemblance between the two is the college jersey they wore. It's like comparing Baker Mayfield and Sam Bradford.

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Shotgun Grand Master

Shotgun

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8 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I can't see us being had enough to land the #1 overall pick but if we're not playoffs bound (insert Jim Mora gif here) this would be the best outcome for the long-term interests of the franchise.

In some ways yes, but it would be pretty bad for morale. Imagine how CMC or Burns would feel to put their bodies on the line only to be the worst team in the NFL. The time to do it was last year...but teddy. 

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hepcat Grand Master

hepcat

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1 minute ago, Smittymoose said:

Five-way tie for the worst record in the league at 5-12? When's the last time the worst team in the league won 5 games? Shows how goofy this nerd poo is that ESPN and others are obsessed with these days. 

Yea, someone is going to completely tank. Probably the Eagles or Texans.

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