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The best Defense in the NFL is……

ncfan

By ncfan,
in Carolina Panthers

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Peon Awesome Experienced

Peon Awesome

Posted
Posted

So this Vikings-Colts got me thinking about the definition of "garbage time" as used by the tweeter, which is win probability of 20-80%. I figured most of this game would have been considered garbage time and I was right (from 1:16 left in the 1st to 2:31 left in the 4th) even though clearly a lot of that was far from what we would think as garbage. 

So then I went back and checked the Panthers-Bengals game. Once you look at the win probability chart, it makes sense the Panthers fare as well as they do. Cause by their definition, "garbage time" started at 12:26 in the FIRST QUARTER. Literally all but the first 2 and a half minutes wouldn't have been used in the calculation for the graph in the tweet, as amazing as that sounds. Part of it is that the Bengals were so heavily favored given how bad the Panthers were considered at the time that they nearly had an 80% win probability from kickoff.

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ECHornet Grand Master

ECHornet

Posted
Posted
21 hours ago, Peon Awesome said:

So this Vikings-Colts got me thinking about the definition of "garbage time" as used by the tweeter, which is win probability of 20-80%. I figured most of this game would have been considered garbage time and I was right (from 1:16 left in the 1st to 2:31 left in the 4th) even though clearly a lot of that was far from what we would think as garbage. 

So then I went back and checked the Panthers-Bengals game. Once you look at the win probability chart, it makes sense the Panthers fare as well as they do. Cause by their definition, "garbage time" started at 12:26 in the FIRST QUARTER. Literally all but the first 2 and a half minutes wouldn't have been used in the calculation for the graph in the tweet, as amazing as that sounds. Part of it is that the Bengals were so heavily favored given how bad the Panthers were considered at the time that they nearly had an 80% win probability from kickoff.

Good point and only needs a simple fix:

 

Garbage time only occurs in 4th quarter and still apply the 80%/20% rule. 

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