Who to Root for in Week 18 #DraftPosition

[Evil Hurney]

With the Panthers officially out of playoff contention we can all collectively turn our attention to the draft. If the season were to end today the Panthers would hold the 9th pick in the draft (https://www.tankathon.com/nfl).

Draft order is based upon:

• 1) Winning %
• 2) Strength of Schedule (SOS) - the aggregate winning % of a team’s opponents
• 3) a bunch of tie-breakers that you can read about here: https://operations.nfl.com/journey-to-the-nfl/the-nfl-draft/the-rules-of-the-draft/

Looking at just the first two criteria, Pick #9 appears to to be the floor with Pick #6 being the ceiling. So, what needs to happen in order to move up 3 spots? Below I have highlighted the preferred winner of each matchup and provided a short excerpt explaining why.

---

Week 17(?)

[BUF] @ CIN, CIN losing lowers SOS for NFCS teams

---

Week 18

KC @ [LV], LV winning would give them a better winning % (assuming CAR loses)

TEN @ JAC, winner doesn't matter

BAL @ CIN, winner doesn't matter

CLE @ [PIT], CLE losing lowers SOS for NFCS teams

MIN @ [CHI], CHI winning increases SOS for ATL only

[NE] @ BUF, NE winning increases SOS for LV only

NYJ @ MIA, winner doesn't matter

TB @ [ATL], ATL winning would give them a better winning % (assuming CAR loses)

CAR @ [NO], hopefully no explanation is needed

HOU @ IND, winner doesn't matter

ARI @ SF, winner doesn't matter

DAL @ [WAS], WAS winning increases SOS for ATL only

[LAR] @ SEA, LAR winning would give them the same winning % (assuming CAR loses)

NYG @ [PHI], NYG losing lowers SOS for CAR only

[LAC] @ DEN, LAC winning increases SOS for ATL + DEN losing lowers SOS for CAR

DET @ [GB], DET losing lowers SOS for CAR only

---

Entering all of that into a spreadsheet shows that we can catch LV and ATL in SOS. LV is much easier to surpass than ATL though.

[CPF4LIFE]

Hard to believe we had the number 1 pick at one point. 

[ECHornet]

Great thread. I did the same thing yesterday and enjoy looking at it all.

I'll add:

-We want the 49ers to lose since we have many of their drafts picks. Could potentially move those picks up a slot if the 49ers lose to the Vikings, Cowboys, or Eagles before the Super Bowl (assuming the Vikings/Cowboys win this week or have lower SOS). Not much riding on that game, but it's not nothing I guess.

-The Chargers v. Broncos game would be extremely helpful for us, if the Chargers win. The Raiders played them twice and the Falcons once, while neither played the Broncos, but we did.

-For those unclear, if the Rams win and we lose, there is no pathway for them to jump us in draft position. That's another big game to watch.

 

Edited January 3, 2023 by ECHornet

[Sean Payton's Vicodin]

God I hope TB rests their starters

[KatsAzz]

12 minutes ago, Sean Payton's Vicodin said:

God I hope TB rests their starters

It is also not a given the Panthers will beat the Saints, considering how they beat the Eagles.

[AggieLean]

Thanks for this.

Really hope we’re able to get to pick 6.

[ECHornet]

The relevant games for passing the Falcons IF we're tied in win%:

MIN @ CHI

DAL @ WAS

NYG @ PHI

LAC @ DEN ***Most Important***

DET @ GB

The Chargers MUST beat the Broncos. If they lose, at best we could tie the Falcons in SOS and they own the tiebreaker (division record).

We need the Chargers to win (favored), and at least 3 of the remaining 4 games to break our way to jump the Falcons. 

Edited January 3, 2023 by ECHornet

[JVic]

23 hours ago, Evil Hurney said:

CAR @ [NO], hopefully no explanation is needed

Giving this miserable fanbase too much credit, ALWAYS root for win, even when the season is over (12 weeks ago).   

Edited January 4, 2023 by JVic

[MHS831]

Carolina 45

New Orleans 3

[Peon Awesome]

On 1/3/2023 at 12:04 AM, Evil Hurney said:

With the Panthers officially out of playoff contention we can all collectively turn our attention to the draft. If the season were to end today the Panthers would hold the 9th pick in the draft (https://www.tankathon.com/nfl).

Draft order is based upon:

• 1) Winning %
• 2) Strength of Schedule (SOS) - the aggregate winning % of a team’s opponents
• 3) a bunch of tie-breakers that you can read about here: https://operations.nfl.com/journey-to-the-nfl/the-nfl-draft/the-rules-of-the-draft/

Looking at just the first two criteria, Pick #9 appears to to be the floor with Pick #6 being the ceiling. So, what needs to happen in order to move up 3 spots? Below I have highlighted the preferred winner of each matchup and provided a short excerpt explaining why.

---

Week 17(?)

[BUF] @ CIN, CIN losing lowers SOS for NFCS teams

---

Week 18

KC @ [LV], LV winning would give them a better winning % (assuming CAR loses)

TEN @ JAC, winner doesn't matter

BAL @ CIN, winner doesn't matter

CLE @ [PIT], CLE losing lowers SOS for NFCS teams

MIN @ [CHI], CHI winning increases SOS for ATL only

[NE] @ BUF, NE winning increases SOS for LV only

NYJ @ MIA, winner doesn't matter

TB @ [ATL], ATL winning would give them a better winning % (assuming CAR loses)

CAR @ [NO], hopefully no explanation is needed

HOU @ IND, winner doesn't matter

ARI @ SF, winner doesn't matter

DAL @ [WAS], WAS winning increases SOS for ATL only

[LAR] @ SEA, LAR winning would give them the same winning % (assuming CAR loses)

NYG @ [PHI], NYG losing lowers SOS for CAR only

[LAC] @ DEN, LAC winning increases SOS for ATL + DEN losing lowers SOS for CAR

DET @ [GB], DET losing lowers SOS for CAR only

---

Entering all of that into a spreadsheet shows that we can catch LV and ATL in SOS. LV is much easier to surpass than ATL though.

Interesting.. we really do seem to be locked at 9 at worst. The 7-9 teams all ahead of us have a much higher SOS, so looks like we'd be 9th even if we beat the Saints, which is a relief. Atlanta beating Tampa is highly possible especially if the starters get pulled. I'm less optimistic about Denver beating KC with the 1 seed on the line and Seattle beating the Rams with the playoffs on the line, but both are obviously not impossible. Seems like we should resign ourselves to 8 or 9.

[4Corners]

On 1/3/2023 at 2:14 AM, CPF4LIFE said:

Hard to believe we had the number 1 pick at one point. 

And all it took was a change in the coach. As bad as this season was, they were in it until the very end and of the zebras don’t influence the outcome of the Browns and ATL games we make the playoffs. 
 

There is no 5 year plan in the NFL. You can change your team overnight if you have a competent HC and a competitive QB. Matt Ruhle was an awful hire. 

[glenwo2]

58 minutes ago, Peon Awesome said:

Interesting.. we really do seem to be locked at 9 at worst. The 7-9 teams all ahead of us have a much higher SOS, so looks like we'd be 9th even if we beat the Saints, which is a relief. Atlanta beating Tampa is highly possible especially if the starters get pulled. I'm less optimistic about Denver beating KC with the 1 seed on the line and Seattle beating the Rams with the playoffs on the line, but both are obviously not impossible. Seems like we should resign ourselves to 8 or 9.

So if that's the case, I want the Panthers to put an asskicking on the Taints this Sunday.  

If nothing else, it would certainly make *me* feel better watching that.

Edited January 4, 2023 by glenwo2

[rebelrouser]

Just "lose" baby!

[Gregg S]

On 1/3/2023 at 12:12 PM, KatsAzz said:

It is also not a given the Panthers will beat the Saints, considering how they beat the Eagles.

Yeah, but we thought there'd be no way we'd beat the Lions after they kicked the Vikings ass in week 14, either.  How'd that turn out?

 

But, I know, we  played the Lions at home while we'll be playing the saint in NO.  But still...

Edited January 4, 2023 by Gregg S