10 reasons

[NAS]

Why the Panthers will draft a QB in the first round

Colts:
1. Jacoby Brissett
2. Philip Rivers
3. Carson Wentz
4. Matt Ryan
5. Nick Foles

Panthers:
6. Kyle Allen
7. Teddy Bridgewater
8. Sam Darnold
9. Baker Mayfield
10. PJ Walker

Edited February 22, 2023 by NAS

[Luciu5]

You know that saying though..."11th time's the charm!"

[Kentucky Panther]

Yikes. 

[Jackie Lee]

I'm not understanding the numerical value of these listings, some were good backups that were forced into starting and didn't do any worse than the guys they spent too much on

[MHS831]

Gotta be careful--60% of those were first rounders.

[JawnyBlaze]

2 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

Gotta be careful--60% of those were first rounders.

Half of that 60% were pretty good at one point. A third of that 60% helped get their team to the Super Bowl

[top dawg]

1 hour ago, JawnyBlaze said:

Half of that 60% were pretty good at one point. A third of that 60% helped get their team to the Super Bowl

One guy was even integral in beating the GOATs to win one.

[csx]

5 hours ago, NAS said:

Why the Panthers will draft a QB in the first round

Colts:
1. Jacoby Brissett
2. Philip Rivers
3. Carson Wentz
4. Matt Ryan
5. Nick Foles

Panthers:
6. Kyle Allen
7. Teddy Bridgewater
8. Sam Darnold
9. Baker Mayfield
10. PJ Walker

4 of 6 first round disappointments

[csx]

3 hours ago, JawnyBlaze said:

Half of that 60% were pretty good at one point. A third of that 60% helped get their team to the Super Bowlw

Weird way to spin Wentz as a successful first round pick

Edited February 22, 2023 by csx

[Aussie Tank]

3 minutes ago, csx said:

There's no way to spin Wentz as a successful first round pick

Can’t predict injuries and he looked like a slam dunk before hand 

[CPantherKing]

3 hours ago, MHS831 said:

Gotta be careful--60% of those were first rounders.

The myth of the 1st round QB is strong. Nick Foles won a SB. Matt Ryan went to a SB. Carson Wentz led a team to a SB. The reality is 1st round QBs drafted by 1st year coaches have worked out 4 of 35 times to win a SB and 2 of 35 times to establish a dynasty.

In their 1st year:

3 HCs traded for QB. 1 QB won the SB. 2 Dynasty HCs (both waited 5 years to draft their SB QB).

5 HCs signed QB. 3 QBs won the SB. 0 Dynasty HCs.

6 HCs drafted QB in year 1. 6 QBs won SB. 4 Dynasty HCs (2 of the 4 had non-1st round SB QBs and more successful dynasties).

21 HCs inherited their starting QB. 15 QBs won the SB. 13 Dynasty HCs (11 did not draft a 1st round QB). Of the 6 HCs who inherited QBs that did not win SBs and were replaced, only 2 of them drafted 1st round QBs who would win the SB.

 

The lesson here as a first year HC with prior championship experience is DO NOT rely on a 1st round rookie QB to set you up for success. The expectations, ownership, and fan base will likely wreck you. Draft a day 3 QB you believe can win a championship. Build a team and ride that QB if he has success, team him with a 30 year old vet franchise QB to take over if he fails. Plan on targeting a QB from college over the next 5 seasons if your late round QB or vet QB can't win in the playoffs for the team you have built. During this process, the coach should have no more than 2 losing seasons in 5 years and be playoff competitive with one of the first 3 QBs they have selected in their tenure.

[Khyber53]

1 hour ago, CPantherKing said:

The myth of the 1st round QB is strong. Nick Foles won a SB. Matt Ryan went to a SB. Carson Wentz led a team to a SB. The reality is 1st round QBs drafted by 1st year coaches have worked out 4 of 35 times to win a SB and 2 of 35 times to establish a dynasty.

In their 1st year:

3 HCs traded for QB. 1 QB won the SB. 2 Dynasty HCs (both waited 5 years to draft their SB QB).

5 HCs signed QB. 3 QBs won the SB. 0 Dynasty HCs.

6 HCs drafted QB in year 1. 6 QBs won SB. 4 Dynasty HCs (2 of the 4 had non-1st round SB QBs and more successful dynasties).

21 HCs inherited their starting QB. 15 QBs won the SB. 13 Dynasty HCs (11 did not draft a 1st round QB). Of the 6 HCs who inherited QBs that did not win SBs and were replaced, only 2 of them drafted 1st round QBs who would win the SB.

 

The lesson here as a first year HC with prior championship experience is DO NOT rely on a 1st round rookie QB to set you up for success. The expectations, ownership, and fan base will likely wreck you. Draft a day 3 QB you believe can win a championship. Build a team and ride that QB if he has success, team him with a 30 year old vet franchise QB to take over if he fails. Plan on targeting a QB from college over the next 5 seasons if your late round QB or vet QB can't win in the playoffs for the team you have built. During this process, the coach should have no more than 2 losing seasons in 5 years and be playoff competitive with one of the first 3 QBs they have selected in their tenure.

 

[JawnyBlaze]

4 hours ago, csx said:

Weird way to spin Wentz as a successful first round pick

I mean, he was a legit leading candidate for MVP that year and if the Eagles had not traded up and got him they wouldn’t have won their first ever Super Bowl. So I think they’d say it was worth it. 

Edited February 22, 2023 by JawnyBlaze

[top dawg]

1 hour ago, CPantherKing said:

The myth of the 1st round QB is strong. Nick Foles won a SB. Matt Ryan went to a SB. Carson Wentz led a team to a SB. The reality is 1st round QBs drafted by 1st year coaches have worked out 4 of 35 times to win a SB and 2 of 35 times to establish a dynasty.

In their 1st year:

3 HCs traded for QB. 1 QB won the SB. 2 Dynasty HCs (both waited 5 years to draft their SB QB).

5 HCs signed QB. 3 QBs won the SB. 0 Dynasty HCs.

6 HCs drafted QB in year 1. 6 QBs won SB. 4 Dynasty HCs (2 of the 4 had non-1st round SB QBs and more successful dynasties).

21 HCs inherited their starting QB. 15 QBs won the SB. 13 Dynasty HCs (11 did not draft a 1st round QB). Of the 6 HCs who inherited QBs that did not win SBs and were replaced, only 2 of them drafted 1st round QBs who would win the SB.

 

The lesson here as a first year HC with prior championship experience is DO NOT rely on a 1st round rookie QB to set you up for success. The expectations, ownership, and fan base will likely wreck you. Draft a day 3 QB you believe can win a championship. Build a team and ride that QB if he has success, team him with a 30 year old vet franchise QB to take over if he fails. Plan on targeting a QB from college over the next 5 seasons if your late round QB or vet QB can't win in the playoffs for the team you have built. During this process, the coach should have no more than 2 losing seasons in 5 years and be playoff competitive with one of the first 3 QBs they have selected in their tenure.

Interesting! I don't necessarily believe in a hard correlation because everyone is different in different situations, but I can't argue that it's not compelling. I don't feel sure about looking at this history and chocking it up as simply random.