Jump to content
  • Welcome!

    Register and log in easily with Twitter or Google accounts!

    Or simply create a new Huddle account. 

    Members receive fewer ads , access our dark theme, and the ability to join the discussion!

     

10 reasons


NAS
 Share

Recommended Posts

Why the Panthers will draft a QB in the first round

Colts:
1. Jacoby Brissett
2. Philip Rivers
3. Carson Wentz
4. Matt Ryan
5. Nick Foles

Panthers:
6. Kyle Allen
7. Teddy Bridgewater
8. Sam Darnold
9. Baker Mayfield
10. PJ Walker

Edited by NAS
  • Pie 6
  • Beer 1
  • Flames 1
  • Poo 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, NAS said:

Why the Panthers will draft a QB in the first round

Colts:
1. Jacoby Brissett
2. Philip Rivers
3. Carson Wentz
4. Matt Ryan
5. Nick Foles

Panthers:
6. Kyle Allen
7. Teddy Bridgewater
8. Sam Darnold
9. Baker Mayfield
10. PJ Walker

4 of 6 first round disappointments

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, MHS831 said:

Gotta be careful--60% of those were first rounders.

The myth of the 1st round QB is strong. Nick Foles won a SB. Matt Ryan went to a SB. Carson Wentz led a team to a SB. The reality is 1st round QBs drafted by 1st year coaches have worked out 4 of 35 times to win a SB and 2 of 35 times to establish a dynasty.

In their 1st year:

3 HCs traded for QB. 1 QB won the SB. 2 Dynasty HCs (both waited 5 years to draft their SB QB).

5 HCs signed QB. 3 QBs won the SB. 0 Dynasty HCs.

6 HCs drafted QB in year 1. 6 QBs won SB. 4 Dynasty HCs (2 of the 4 had non-1st round SB QBs and more successful dynasties).

21 HCs inherited their starting QB. 15 QBs won the SB. 13 Dynasty HCs (11 did not draft a 1st round QB). Of the 6 HCs who inherited QBs that did not win SBs and were replaced, only 2 of them drafted 1st round QBs who would win the SB.

 

The lesson here as a first year HC with prior championship experience is DO NOT rely on a 1st round rookie QB to set you up for success. The expectations, ownership, and fan base will likely wreck you. Draft a day 3 QB you believe can win a championship. Build a team and ride that QB if he has success, team him with a 30 year old vet franchise QB to take over if he fails. Plan on targeting a QB from college over the next 5 seasons if your late round QB or vet QB can't win in the playoffs for the team you have built. During this process, the coach should have no more than 2 losing seasons in 5 years and be playoff competitive with one of the first 3 QBs they have selected in their tenure.

  • Pie 6
  • Beer 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, CPantherKing said:

The myth of the 1st round QB is strong. Nick Foles won a SB. Matt Ryan went to a SB. Carson Wentz led a team to a SB. The reality is 1st round QBs drafted by 1st year coaches have worked out 4 of 35 times to win a SB and 2 of 35 times to establish a dynasty.

In their 1st year:

3 HCs traded for QB. 1 QB won the SB. 2 Dynasty HCs (both waited 5 years to draft their SB QB).

5 HCs signed QB. 3 QBs won the SB. 0 Dynasty HCs.

6 HCs drafted QB in year 1. 6 QBs won SB. 4 Dynasty HCs (2 of the 4 had non-1st round SB QBs and more successful dynasties).

21 HCs inherited their starting QB. 15 QBs won the SB. 13 Dynasty HCs (11 did not draft a 1st round QB). Of the 6 HCs who inherited QBs that did not win SBs and were replaced, only 2 of them drafted 1st round QBs who would win the SB.

 

The lesson here as a first year HC with prior championship experience is DO NOT rely on a 1st round rookie QB to set you up for success. The expectations, ownership, and fan base will likely wreck you. Draft a day 3 QB you believe can win a championship. Build a team and ride that QB if he has success, team him with a 30 year old vet franchise QB to take over if he fails. Plan on targeting a QB from college over the next 5 seasons if your late round QB or vet QB can't win in the playoffs for the team you have built. During this process, the coach should have no more than 2 losing seasons in 5 years and be playoff competitive with one of the first 3 QBs they have selected in their tenure.

Check This Out GIF

 

  • Pie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, csx said:

Weird way to spin Wentz as a successful first round pick

I mean, he was a legit leading candidate for MVP that year and if the Eagles had not traded up and got him they wouldn’t have won their first ever Super Bowl. So I think they’d say it was worth it. 

Edited by JawnyBlaze
  • Pie 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, CPantherKing said:

The myth of the 1st round QB is strong. Nick Foles won a SB. Matt Ryan went to a SB. Carson Wentz led a team to a SB. The reality is 1st round QBs drafted by 1st year coaches have worked out 4 of 35 times to win a SB and 2 of 35 times to establish a dynasty.

In their 1st year:

3 HCs traded for QB. 1 QB won the SB. 2 Dynasty HCs (both waited 5 years to draft their SB QB).

5 HCs signed QB. 3 QBs won the SB. 0 Dynasty HCs.

6 HCs drafted QB in year 1. 6 QBs won SB. 4 Dynasty HCs (2 of the 4 had non-1st round SB QBs and more successful dynasties).

21 HCs inherited their starting QB. 15 QBs won the SB. 13 Dynasty HCs (11 did not draft a 1st round QB). Of the 6 HCs who inherited QBs that did not win SBs and were replaced, only 2 of them drafted 1st round QBs who would win the SB.

 

The lesson here as a first year HC with prior championship experience is DO NOT rely on a 1st round rookie QB to set you up for success. The expectations, ownership, and fan base will likely wreck you. Draft a day 3 QB you believe can win a championship. Build a team and ride that QB if he has success, team him with a 30 year old vet franchise QB to take over if he fails. Plan on targeting a QB from college over the next 5 seasons if your late round QB or vet QB can't win in the playoffs for the team you have built. During this process, the coach should have no more than 2 losing seasons in 5 years and be playoff competitive with one of the first 3 QBs they have selected in their tenure.

Interesting! I don't necessarily believe in a hard correlation because everyone is different in different situations, but I can't argue that it's not compelling. I don't feel sure about looking at this history and chocking it up as simply random. 

  • Pie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share


  • PMH4OWPW7JD2TDGWZKTOYL2T3E.jpg

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Watched the recent Mic'd up which had the Bucs game. This angle makes that fumble look so much worse, pretty sure it was inbetween Bryce's hands.   bbb.mp4
    • Here is what you did not mention (and I have not read the thread--but will--it is a needed) and that is the MAFF.  He is in a contract year (2026-5th year) and we will not know (in all likelihood) how the knee is healing by the time we have to decide on a mega deal.   If you consider the time it takes to fully heal is 12 months if all goes well, the injury is known to shorten careers.  Of course, a man of 330 lbs who needs agility to perform at a high level makes the injury a bit more serious than it was for Jimmy Graham, for example, who recovered in a remarkable 9 months.  Having said all that, I think he should be moved inside to guard.   While many NFL linemen can return to play after patellar tendon surgery, studies show a significant failure rate and reduced performance, with return-to-play (RTP) rates often cited around 50-56%, meaning roughly 44-50% don't make it back, and even those who do often see reduced careers and statistics, highlighting it as a devastating injury for linemen." I think you have to go after an elite OT, and I think it should be a first rounder because you don't sign elite LTs in free agency.  Ickey is already going to get paid $18m or so in 2026.    However, the money you save by not locking him down long term could go to a free agent edge or ILB.  It is very complicated if you start factoring in contracts, risks, cap, and the odds of recovery.    
    • Yes, we played the 2nd most cover 3 in the NFL behind the Raiders.   The flats and seams are the areas you want to attack it so its soft spots are areas qbs can hit quickly which can definitely hurt the pass rush.
×
×
  • Create New...