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Finally got to finish listening to Mina and Dan talk about the resurgence of the importance of the run in today's game. A lot of what they discussed lines up with what the Panthers seem to be attempting to build under Canales + Evero. Teams are running the football more than they have in nearly a decade. The best offenses in the league last year (BAL, BUF, DET, GB) were also the top rushing teams. The old assumption that you could pass your way to being a top-5 offense without a consistent ground game isn't holding up anymore. Offenses are getting under center more and leaning into physicality and time of possession. That shift is happening in direct response to defenses going lighter in personnel to stop spread and RPO-heavy attacks. 12 personnel usage is at its highest since 2007. If you have TEs who can block and catch, defenses can't easily match personnel. Baltimore's Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely were used as examples, and the Bengals (who have mostly used 11 personnel with Burrow at the helm) are also leaning into the model with the as pass catching TE (Gesicki) and a blocking TE (Sample). Condensed formations (tight splits, bunch alignments, etc) are now used more than ever. These sets create traffic, allow WRs to block more effectively, and force DBs to tackle. The goal isn't spacing; it's leverage, angles, and chaos. Defenses are trying to respond with more blitzes from the secondary and by rotating coverages post-snap. The big nickel is ever increasing in their importance on the field. Linemen and linebackers are trading in size and strength for speed and athleticism. This makes them more susceptible to the run. They're also taking greater risks on earlier downs. Fourth-down aggressiveness hit 20% league-wide last year, the highest on record. It's more than just going for it though, it's a shift in offensive philosophy. Teams now call second and third down differently when they know they'll use all four downs. That makes checkdowns, 3yd gains, etc meaningful building blocks instead of perceived failures. Hearing all of that and looking at the Panthers, it's difficult to not do a double take. 👀 The Panthers have an RB room built for the grind. Chuba is the workhorse, Dowdle is a more than capable back-up that can also start, and Etienne provides further depth. If JB's year off puts him in place to come back and contribute to the roster after Dowdle's deal expires, look out! The emphasis on time of possession and intelligent decision making fits Bryce's playstyle as well as the returning OL. With defenses getting lighter, having a mauling offensive line is going to make life even easier for the RBs which in turn will make the QBs job simpler. On the defensive side of things, the team got bigger in the trenches and brought in one of the best tackling run-stopping DBs in the league in Tre'von Moehrig. That's a wise investment when looking at the division and realizing that they're going to have to defend against Alvin Kamara, Bucky Irvin, Bijan Robinson, and Tyler Allegeier twice a year. Regarding 12 personnel, Tremble is more of a blocker but is a capable pass catcher. Sanders is more of a pass catcher but might be more effective in the run game with his improved physique. Mitchell Evans is another TE that can both block and catch. While they might not have an elite guy in the room yet, having versatile tight ends has been the shift vs. just having an elite pass-catching TE. The team didn't run as much 12 sets as the rest of the league, but when considering the injuries that took place it (and that TE2 was a rookie) it makes sense. It'll be interesting to see if they lean more into 12 this season. Condensed formations focus on creating match ups on the perimeter rather than working the space inside created via spread offenses. This plays into Bryce's game as well as the receiving corps that the team is working with. TMac and XL provide shot plays on the perimeter which, if successful, will lead to more space inside for Bryce to work with. While he's shown that he's willing to go over the middle despite his size, there is also the reality of congestion over the middle being more difficult for him to deal with unless he buys time with his legs to let things clear up. With Evero's love of the safety position and the addition of Moehrig, expect him to rotate down as the big nickel and occasional three safety looks. Evero wants DBs that can tackle and sent Jaycee on some well-timed corner blitzes last season. With the DL being retooled, he might be able to leverage Wallace/Jewell to provide pressure from the LB position as well by blitzing them on early downs. I don't think I will ever recover from Jimmy Clausen's checkdowns, but it's good to hear that those are no longer the drive killers that they used to be. Taking the checkdown on 2nd & 7 to get to 3rd & 5 to get to 4th & 2 is becoming increasingly viable (though not exactly dependable). -
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"Fanboy syndrome" for wishing a guy well due to a new baby? Come on, Dude. This conversation isn't even really about the team holding anybody back, and it was not even ostensibly about on-field play, injuries or even skills, but since some took it there, as an aside, it morphed into a side discussion about the FO being forthright in negotiations. If you're not going to extend my contract for whatever reasons, don't lead me to believe that you are. It's that simple.
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