Tbe Real Question Should Be What Would It Take to Move Up to #2

[FuFuLamePoo]

35 minutes ago, BrianS said:

Moving up for a QB is a non-starter.  We're already so close to the top, that it doesn't make any logical sense.  Jets and Jags both need a QB, so you aren't going to move either of those for anything remotely like a reasonable amount of capital.  Swapping with Cincy doesn't make sense, because they aren't going to take a QB.  They're going to take Sewell.  The only reason you might swap with Cincy is if you are worried someone from farther down might do it.  And if you're Cincy, you've seen that Burrow looks good, but needs some protection, are you really willing to trade back more than a slot or two and risk losing a guy who is a clear franchise LT?

Once you realize that the top three are sitting where they are and unlikely to move for anything less than a Ricky Williams, the reality becomes obvious.  We're going to be drafting either four or five at this point.  Two QB's and Sewell are coming off the board ahead of us.  Dallas is a complete wildcard.  Logic says that the Cowboys retain Prescott, but this is Jerry World.  If they don't go QB, they are looking at LT, DB or DL.  

And then we're up.  There is no reasonable scenario where we get one of the first two QB's off the board.  It all comes down to other team evaluations of the Wilson vs Fields variety.  If the Jags like Wilson better than Fields, then it's pretty likely we'll get an opportunity to draft Fields.  If the Jags like Fields better, pretty likely we'll have the opportunity to draft Wilson.

Don't bother with Lance.  He may turn into a good prospect, but his profile doesn't fit the Matt Rhule / Joe Brady style of offense.  When you're spending high draft capital, you don't draft a guy so you can change your offense, you draft a guy who fits your offense.  If We don't like "the guy" who is left for us at our slot, we BPA or slide back.  Trask might be a good pick, but not at 4-5.

Our best case scenario is the third QB off the board, which depends on the Jags evaluation of Wilson / Fields.  Unless something really unlikely happens and the Jags decide to go Lance.  It's crazy to me, but it could happen.  Trubisky happened after all.

Trask is not a first round prospect and his name shouldn't remotely be in discussions considering we'll be picking top 5 or top 10.

[ForJimmy]

If the Jets pull off a win or two and the Jags take Lawrence 1 overall, do the Jets still take a QB at 2 with Darnold on their roster?

[joemac]

3 hours ago, Hoenheim said:

No one besides Lawrence is worth trading up for if we already had a top 5 pick . #2 is an even more silly idea than trading up for #1 unless the Panthers are in love with Fields for some reason .

No telling which of Fields , Lance, or Wilson is going to be great. At least one of them will probably be a bust , possible a couple of them . Really hard to say which one will be the best long term . There isn't a huge drop off talent wise among the three. So you might as well sit on #4 or #5 overall and draft the dude that falls in your lap and not have to trade the farm for no reason (ala Bears for Trubisky)

 

These remaining playoff games are going to be important for Fields. He’s looked pretty suspect lately. Is he going to end up another OSU QB bust?

[GoobyPls]

I like Wilson more than Fields 

[kungfoodude]

No reason to trade up to 2, IMO. IF we can get #4, we will be in good shape. Stand pat and get the next key piece to our team.

[Soul Rebel]

Any chance if Jax jumps NYJ, that the Jets pass on QB2. Jets have a lot of holes on defense and Darnold entering his 4th season, perhaps under Bieneimy could potentially pass on a QB if they are unsure of value.

Not saying that's the likely move, but with a disorganized organization like the NYJ (though Douglas might start turning it around), and if Parsons or Sewell appeals to them, it could happen. A Becton/Sewell tackle situation is downright nasty. Parsons or Surtain could have an epic combine/pro day and solidify themselves in the top-5.. 

Again, I doubt it happens, but Lawrence is the only guarantee at #1. No way Cincy goes QB, so if we are at 4, maybe there's a scenario where all three QBs are sitting there.

[OldhamA]

1 minute ago, Soul Rebel said:

Any chance if Jax jumps NYJ, that the Jets pass on QB2. Jets have a lot of holes on defense and Darnold entering his 4th season, perhaps under Bieneimy could potentially pass on a QB if they are unsure of value.

Not saying that's the likely move, but with a disorganized organization like the NYJ (though Douglas might start turning it around), and if Parsons or Sewell appeals to them, it could happen. A Becton/Sewell tackle situation is downright nasty. Parsons or Surtain could have an epic combine/pro day and solidify themselves in the top-5.. 

Again, I doubt it happens, but Lawrence is the only guarantee at #1. No way Cincy goes QB, so if we are at 4, maybe there's a scenario where all three QBs are sitting there.

Man, then you ring every team below you up in the league and ask them for their best trade offer. 

[BrianS]

This is the guy the Jets have at QB:

Less than 60% completions, nearly as many INT's as TD's.  This is not the answer.  Regardless of whether they pick first or second, the Jets are taking a QB.  Regardless of whether they pick first or second, the Jags are taking a QB.  Our best case scenario is that two QB's are off the board by the time we pick.

[Snake]

8 hours ago, Davidson Deac II said:

Jacksonville would be nearly as difficult to trade with as the Jets.  They also need a qb.  Only chance is if they win a couple and Cincy loses out.  

Exactly and it's not even a clinch then.

[Snake]

2 hours ago, BrianS said:

This is the guy the Jets have at QB:

Less than 60% completions, nearly as many INT's as TD's.  This is not the answer.  Regardless of whether they pick first or second, the Jets are taking a QB.  Regardless of whether they pick first or second, the Jags are taking a QB.  Our best case scenario is that two QB's are off the board by the time we pick.

No matter if they keep him or not they will make the wrong choice. Jets gonna jet. 

[Rocky Davis]

The crazy thing with the Jets winning today is that the team is still playing for Gase.....it was kind of unreal to see them beat the Rams today.

[WUnderhill]

You don’t want to discuss giving up a kings ransom for the best player in the draft so you would rather discuss giving up a kings ransom for the second best QB? To a team maybe even less inclined to trade than the Jets no less. Not sure I get it.

[crowntownpanther]

8 hours ago, Waldo said:

Too much to go hopefully 2 spots. If we win another game the price would be even worse. I could see sending a pick in this draft in a trade but 2+ this year and a first next year is fugging depressing to contemplate. 

It’s really only one spot (assuming a QB pick) because the bengals have Burrow and won’t be taking a QB. It’s not worth it.  I’d imagine Lawrence 1 and Fields 2, leaving us with the third pick at QB if the draft were today. That’s a pretty good spot to be in.

[Waldo]

8 hours ago, crowntownpanther said:

It’s really only one spot (assuming a QB pick) because the bengals have Burrow and won’t be taking a QB. It’s not worth it.  I’d imagine Lawrence 1 and Fields 2, leaving us with the third pick at QB if the draft were today. That’s a pretty good spot to be in.

It really isn't worth it when you look at the cost of moving up. I'm happy to sit and see who falls to 4.