The Panthers have spent the equivalent of pick 19 on a QB over the last two offseasons

[rayzor]

1 hour ago, poundaway said:

Fitterer is repeating what they did in Seattle, looking under rocks trying to find a QB.  At the end of this year we'll have turned over the  Teddy, Sam, Cam, and Mayfield stones.   We may have peeked at Corral.  Its an ugly process and absolutely sucks for fans.

Seattle got lucky. Their strategy was just keep collecting as much poo as possible and slinging it at the wall to see if something sticks. copying that method is like continually drafting QBs in the 6th round because one of them might turn into brady.

Luck is not a strategy.

[poundaway]

1 hour ago, stbugs said:

Don’t forget Teddy canceled out the 3rd round comp pick for Bradberry as well.

We’ve spent a poo ton of picks and cap space in 3 years and it’s been on 3 QBs who weren’t wanted as starters and a 3rd rounder. Maybe it works out be we certainly haven’t got anywhere near good value for QBs.

True.  Since comp pics are after the round, its a beyond bottom 3rd or above top 4th pick, a 3.5 pick.  But if you do that you have to subtract the 5th we got for Kyle Allen.  They don't cancel out, but it isn't a net loss of a third, its somewhere in the 4th round pick.

 

[poundaway]

51 minutes ago, rayzor said:

Seattle got lucky. Their strategy was just keep collecting as much poo as possible and slinging it at the wall to see if something sticks. copying that method is like continually drafting QBs in the 6th round because one of them might turn into brady.

Luck is not a strategy.

Drafting a 1st round QB involves luck as well.  The hit rate isn't great.

[hepcat]

3 hours ago, Basbear said:

Panthers are not cap smart like the iants, not even close. Theyve had maybe two years out of 10+ where they had to make sweeping cuts etc in order to be legit. Panthers have stayied in terrible spot, were they have little talent and high cap numbers...... iants at least have great talent. Look at thier rosters over the years, at each group there is a legit pro bowler. Just pick a few groups out- OL, LB, DL, RB, S, etc...... 

fyi heres the 2023 panthers-(be sure to read those names and FAs)

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/carolina-panthers/cap/2023/

Also getting low low low low lower results. There are/were street FAs that could have done 2020 teddy/2021 Darnold and costed minimum type deals. Should have kept Cam for starters. PJ "MFING" Walker could have gotten similar numbers I bet for a ultra low discount to boot.... wasted other players time/effort. 

They should have just kept Kyle Allen and rebuilt the roster. He was basically the same as Teddy but with a much lower price tag.

[Santee_Panther]

1 minute ago, hepcat said:

They should have just kept Kyle Allen and rebuilt the roster. He was basically the same as Teddy but with a much lower price tag.

I was on board for this. But for anyone to think you just snap your fingers and get a good QB is crazy. Fitterer has said you try and try again until you hit. That’s what he has tried. 
 

Of course you can say why did we guarantee that 5th year for Sam, but even that was a one year throw away. 

[BrianS]

6 hours ago, poundaway said:

Drafting a 1st round QB involves luck as well.  The hit rate isn't great.

Since 2000, it's around 50% on first round QB's, and around 10% for the rest of the rounds combined.  (Very little difference after the first round).

The mistake we made at QB is actually rather simple.  And really it's only one.  After Rhule's first year, we convinced ourselves we were better than we actually were.  Instead of staying the course with our bridge QB and taking our lumps, we were cashed in assets and salary cap to try to shortcut the process.

That's the mistake that started the avalanche.

[mrcompletely11]

27 minutes ago, BrianS said:

Since 2000, it's around 50% on first round QB's, and around 10% for the rest of the rounds combined.  (Very little difference after the first round).

The mistake we made at QB is actually rather simple.  And really it's only one.  After Rhule's first year, we convinced ourselves we were better than we actually were.  Instead of staying the course with our bridge QB and taking our lumps, we were cashed in assets and salary cap to try to shortcut the process.

That's the mistake that started the avalanche.

Spot on post.  At some point we are going to have to draft a qb in the first and build around him.  I suspect in the 2023 draft that will be the time a new staff will do it.  

[Jon Snow]

7 hours ago, poundaway said:

Drafting a 1st round QB involves luck as well.  The hit rate isn't great.

We have 2 first round busts on the roster right now. Getting a franchise QB takes due diligence and a tremendous amount of luck. 

[Pejorative Miscreant]

10 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

We have 2 first round busts on the roster right now. Getting a franchise QB takes due diligence and a tremendous amount of luck. 

Agree 100% with Darnold.  My personal opinion only, but I dont consider Mayfield a bust quite yet.  Perhaps I'm being kind in saying he was over drafted relative to his ceiling.  While I dont agree with bringing him in, if I look at the trade from a single transaction it appears to be good value. 

That said, if you constantly buy clunkers and you keep putting money into them, you need to bite the bullet and get something reliable. 

[Pimpdaddy]

9 hours ago, Santee_Panther said:

I was on board for this. But for anyone to think you just snap your fingers and get a good QB is crazy. Fitterer has said you try and try again until you hit. That’s what he has tried. 
 

Of course you can say why did we guarantee that 5th year for Sam, but even that was a one year throw away. 

...Right. There is a finite number of good QB's. Wilson, Stafford and thank god Watson didn't want to come here... Options are limited. If we went to the superbowl with Delhomme we can with Mayfield. We need to put the parts around him. He was the only and best option to try next.  Keep swingin.

[poundaway]

3 hours ago, BrianS said:

Since 2000, it's around 50% on first round QB's, and around 10% for the rest of the rounds combined.  (Very little difference after the first round).

The mistake we made at QB is actually rather simple.  And really it's only one.  After Rhule's first year, we convinced ourselves we were better than we actually were.  Instead of staying the course with our bridge QB and taking our lumps, we were cashed in assets and salary cap to try to shortcut the process.

That's the mistake that started the avalanche.

It depends on your definition of hit.  

Darnold and Mayfield are considered hits in this analysis:

https://theriotreport.com/more-than-50-of-first-round-picks-are-busts-and-other-terrifying-draft-statistics/2/

Jared Goff was a 2x pro-bowler, SB QB, but Rams traded him away after his rookie deal.  If you are traded away at the end of your rookie deal, are you a bust?  Some consider Goff a bust.
 

[ladypanther]

14 hours ago, Basbear said:

Rhule has f'd up the QB choices, i hope the rumors are true about him losing some power about picking players..

Me too.

[thefuzz]

13 hours ago, stbugs said:

Don’t forget Teddy canceled out the 3rd round comp pick for Bradberry as well.

We’ve spent a poo ton of picks and cap space in 3 years and it’s been on 3 QBs who weren’t wanted as starters and a 3rd rounder. Maybe it works out be we certainly haven’t got anywhere near good value for QBs.

It's almost like we didn't know what we were looking for, or doing for that matter.

Shocking...I know.

[ForJimmy]

58 minutes ago, poundaway said:

It depends on your definition of hit.  

Darnold and Mayfield are considered hits in this analysis:

https://theriotreport.com/more-than-50-of-first-round-picks-are-busts-and-other-terrifying-draft-statistics/2/

Jared Goff was a 2x pro-bowler, SB QB, but Rams traded him away after his rookie deal.  If you are traded away at the end of your rookie deal, are you a bust?  Some consider Goff a bust.
 

Yeah I think people are taking that "success rate" of 1st round QBs and applying it to elite franchise QBs that they are so desperately wanting.  The chance of landing a Burrow or Mahomes with a 1st round pick is slim.  I personally wanted us to draft Fields, so I get the desire to have one plus the rookie contact helps a ton, but the chance of us drafting a QB that is better than Baker (average starter) is much more slim than that 50% success rate tells us.