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Albert Breer talks Panthers, Burns, and details McCaffrey trade...

Mr. Scot

By Mr. Scot,
in Carolina Panthers

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Mr. Scot Grand Master

Mr. Scot

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...all in his latest MMQB (link)

Up first, why there's no fire sale going on...

The biggest reason the Panthers aren’t conducting a fire sale hasn’t been raised much. And it’s there in plain sight: There’s an internal belief the roster is in a spot where you could drop a good quarterback in and the team could really take off. Now, as Carolina itself has shown, that’s far easier said than done.

That said, let’s look at the guys who have trade value on that roster. Brian Burns, Derrick Brown and Jeremy Chinn are 24; D.J. Moore is 25; Jaycee Horn is 22; and Ickey Ekwonu is 21. Say you’re the next coach—would you rather have those guys, who are established building blocks on your roster, or a hollowed-out team with a bunch of draft picks? And, sure, Christian McCaffrey is only 26, but it’s fair to look at the position he plays, his mileage and injury history, and trade him from that group because it’s hard to say what he’ll be when the next rebuild is done.

Speaking of McCaffrey...

Here's more on how, and why, the McCaffrey trade went down like it did …

• The 49ers were the first team to call, on Friday, Oct. 14, when they made their first offer. The Bills checked in later on that day, too. At that point, the Panthers told San Francisco, Buffalo and other teams that would subsequently call, that a first-rounder alone might get it done, and that a first-rounder and a later pick would get it done.

• Last Monday, GM Scott Fitterer pulled McCaffrey aside to give him the landscape, tell him that he planned to listen to offers and also that he’d be comfortable hanging on to him. The talk lasted about five minutes, and McCaffrey told Fitterer that he appreciated the heads-up.

• More calls poured in Tuesday, with some teams just fishing—offering a third-rounder or a fourth-rounder to see whether a discount was in the offing. The Broncos and Eagles were among those teams (both have GMs who like to investigate pretty much everything). The day clarified who was really in and who wasn’t.

• In the interim, Fitterer, in conjunction with owner David Tepper, assistant GM Dan Morgan and cap chief Samir Suleiman, huddled to come up with a blueprint for what they wanted out of a deal, and the first-round value was central to that, in giving the team a piece of capital it could use to get a quarterback and augment the existing young core.

• By Thursday, the 49ers and Rams had emerged as leaders, but neither had a first-rounder in 2023, which would force those two to be creative and find a way to generate a return that would satisfy the Panthers.

• Coming to the final price required compromise. The Panthers’ initial proposal used the draft value chart by slotting the 49ers’ pick in each round as the 32nd pick. Conversely, San Francisco was using the chart with its picks slotted 14th, which is around where it is now (with the team 3–3 heading into Week 7). Obviously, that created disparate proposals. So they found a middle ground in the 20s.

• That’s how the Panthers and 49ers came to the final deal—second-, third- and fourth-rounders in 2023 and a fifth-rounder in ’24. In the end, the tiebreaker between the 49ers’ and Rams’ offers was the fact that the Rams didn’t have a fourth-rounder in ’23. That one’s gone, thanks to last year’s Sony Michel trade. And the final point value of the package, as the 49ers and Panthers calculated it, wound up between 31 and 34 (very low first- and very high second-round picks).

• The Rams’ final offer: second- and third-rounders in 2023, fourth- and fifth-rounders in ’24 and Cam Akers. The Bills were also in it until the end—sort of. Buffalo called early, as we said, and kept tabs on the situation throughout, which was easy enough with the strong ties between the Bills’ and Panthers’ front offices. In the end, the asking price never came down to the point where Buffalo was compelled to make a hard offer.

• The 49ers are now without their slotted picks in the first four rounds of the 2023 draft. But they have one third-round comp pick coming in April for Mike McDaniel’s hire in Miami and comp picks for the hires of Robert Saleh by the Jets and Martin Mayhew by the Commanders. And they should have later comp picks coming for a couple of departed ’22 free agents, too.

• Obviously, the 49ers’ connections here made them comfortable. And they run deep. John Lynch and Ed McCaffrey were teammates at Stanford in 1989 and ’90 and, at one point in that second year, hooked up for a long connection in a game when Lynch was still playing quarterback. And Lynch’s nephew actually plays for Ed McCaffrey at Northern Colorado. Which, of course, only adds to all the links you’ve already heard about.

Again, the Panthers are positioned nicely now to finally find a quarterback and keep building on a pretty good young core of players. Carolina has more than made up picks lost in trades for Matt Corral (third-rounder), Stephon Gilmore (sixth-rounder) and Laviska Shenault (seventh-rounder) over the past year.

And lastly, this regarding Brian Burns...

There’ll be a lot of trade talk, and rightfully so, over the next eight days, and it’s worth paying attention to how the market’s changed. And specifically in a case involving the Panthers’ Brian Burns.

When I mentioned this week that it’d take multiple first-round picks, baseline, to pry Burns from Carolina, some scoffed. But that just reflects the change in how young, star vets are valued by teams. Jalen Ramsey commanded two first-round picks, and so did Khalil Mack. Minkah Fitzpatrick netted a first-rounder, a fourth-rounder and a seventh-rounder. And all those players, if you go back and see how the picks shook out, were worth the price.

Burns is similar to Ramsey and Fitzpatrick, and he’s only 24. Good luck getting him.

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Aussie Tank Grand Master

Aussie Tank

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37 minutes ago, CPantherKing said:

And then the front office realizes that they will have to beat CMC and the 49ers in the playoffs to be a champion...

ooops

That was a huge mistake. Those draft picks and anything the Panthers do is meaningless for the foreseeable future until they prove they can beat the 49ers in the playoffs.

49ers aren’t even the best in their division Mr doom and gloom 

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Khyber53 Grand Master

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Here's the thing, Burns needs a big pressure force on the opposite side of the line to get maximum value out of what his skillset is. That means one of two things:

A: A team already needs to have an established pass rusher to pair him with. If they do, they are going to get one of the fastest, most aggressive guys in the game. If they don't have that, then Burns will be the main focus for an opponent's blocking efforts, much like we're seeing here. Burns is more fast than strong and he doesn't have the mass to move two o-linemen on his own. 

B: The other option is we desperately need to get someone as a rushing mate for him in the coming season. Much like Reddick worked well with him last year, he needs that help to really succeed. If he stays, then we've got to really put some effort into getting another effective pass rusher, hopefully someone with the strength and mass to not just command but demand double teams.

Personally, I think that's our best route... to keep Burns and try to find that running mate. Should we manage to place ourselves outside of a top 5 pick, we might find that grabbing a perfect DE is a much better way to go and something more attainable.

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CmC2k Mentor

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Rookie QB's need to come into a stable environment in order to have the best chance for success. Look at the Ravens with Lamar, the Bills with Allen, the chiefs with Mahomes, and Houston with Mr. happy endings. It puts so much less pressure on the rookie QB and allows them to develop at their own pace instead of being asking to carry the entire organization from day 1. So, let's go out and reestablish the identity and culture on what it means to play Carolina Panther football. If we win and make the playoffs so be it, we have plenty of picks to move around in the draft to get a rookie QB or to trade for an already established QB. Also getting this young core a chance to experience playoff football will be good for their development.  

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JawnyBlaze Grand Master

JawnyBlaze

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“Burns is similar to Ramsey and Fitzpatrick, and he’s only 24. Good luck getting him.”

Some people around here need to pay attention to that last line. Burns is a great player who’s going to be expensive when the time comes and he’s worth it. You don’t trade away premier pass rushers who don’t want to go anywhere. 

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Mr. Scot Grand Master

Mr. Scot

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The parts I find most interesting...

There’s an internal belief the roster is in a spot where you could drop a good quarterback in and the team could really take off.

The team braintrust seems to share the notion some fans have expressed that the roster is good, just in need of a quarterback and the right coaching. PJ Walker's performance this past Sunday could be considered evidence to that effect.

Also of note...

In the interim, Fitterer, in conjunction with owner David Tepper, assistant GM Dan Morgan and cap chief Samir Suleiman, huddled to come up with a blueprint for what they wanted out of a deal, and the first-round value was central to that, in giving the team a piece of capital it could use to get a quarterback and augment the existing young core.

The deal was discussed among a group that included Tepper but not Pat Stewart or Steve Wilks. When asked, Wilks did say that he was kept informed of what was going on.

Stewart was at least somewhat tied to Matt Rhule (they had worked together before). Don't know that this necessarily means anything regarding his position but you never know.

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Shotgun Grand Master

Shotgun

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3 hours ago, CPantherKing said:

And then the front office realizes that they will have to beat CMC and the 49ers in the playoffs to be a champion...

ooops

That was a huge mistake. Those draft picks and anything the Panthers do is meaningless for the foreseeable future until they prove they can beat the 49ers in the playoffs.

If it was the 1980s maybe. lol

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TheCasillas Grand Master

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12 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

The parts I find most interesting...

There’s an internal belief the roster is in a spot where you could drop a good quarterback in and the team could really take off.

The team braintrust seems to share the notion some fans have expressed that the roster is good, just in need of a quarterback and the right coaching. PJ Walker's performance this past Sunday could be considered evidence to that effect.

Also of note...

In the interim, Fitterer, in conjunction with owner David Tepper, assistant GM Dan Morgan and cap chief Samir Suleiman, huddled to come up with a blueprint for what they wanted out of a deal, and the first-round value was central to that, in giving the team a piece of capital it could use to get a quarterback and augment the existing young core.

The deal was discussed among a group that included Tepper but not Pat Stewart or Steve Wilks. When asked, Wilks did say that he was kept informed of what was going on.

Stewart was at least somewhat tied to Matt Rhule (they had worked together before). Don't know that this necessarily means anything regarding his position but you never know.

And no mention of Drummond… 

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LinvilleGorge Grand Master

LinvilleGorge

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4 hours ago, CPantherKing said:

And then the front office realizes that they will have to beat CMC and the 49ers in the playoffs to be a champion...

ooops

That was a huge mistake. Those draft picks and anything the Panthers do is meaningless for the foreseeable future until they prove they can beat the 49ers in the playoffs.

giphy.webp?cid=6c09b95218bfdaf9133585aff

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    • tukafan21
      something to feel good about in the offseason..."could be something special brewing in Carolina"

      By tukafan21 · Posted

      Just because all draft picks are a gamble doesn't mean you don't have a better chance at hitting on a better player the higher you're drafting. It would literally be like someone saying, I'll give you 1 or 2 free spins on a slot machine, and you say you'll take the 1 because you're not likely to win anything anyways with 1 or 2, so why bother? The Cowboys desperately wanted T-Mac, but because they were 4 picks behind us, they weren't able to get him.  If you told Cowboys fans that had they lost 2 more games last year in a lost season, that it would get them the player they wanted so badly, would they in retrospect go back and lose those games to get their guy? 95% of them would take that trade off in a heartbeat, and the others who wouldn't are the fans who would rather enjoy an extra win or two in a poo season to then set themselves up to be better for the next decade. I also think the fans who argue against this thinking, get too caught up in the "well that means you're going to be rooting against us late in the season even if we still have a shot at the playoffs." Which isn't true, it's saying if you're telling me right now we'd make the playoffs but lose in the first round, that I'd rather end up 8-9 or 9-8 and just miss the playoffs because in our opinion, the benefits that come along with that outweigh the benefit of the players getting 1 game of playoff experience.
    • frankw
      something to feel good about in the offseason..."could be something special brewing in Carolina"

      By frankw · Posted

      In relation to tanking. I think you can count on one hand the number of people here who actually want us to lose football games. When accounting for it across the fanbase it amounts to maybe 2% of the entire Panthers fanbase. But you engage with some internet trolls and think haters are coming out of the woodwork and hey look at that it's all a conspiracy that leads to Bryce Young haters. Do you hear yourself sir? If it sounds ridiculous that's because it is. I mean at this point do you see Bryce haters in your dreams? As far as the culture of this franchise goes we seem to be doing better in that department via what we are building right now and with the people we have in place. But we also shouldn't just make assumptions just yet either. The rubber still needs to meet the road. And going back to previous seasons I think we can acknowledge although tanking obviously isn't a thing there were some times where we thought our culture was improving but really it wasn't. Yes I'm looking directly at some of those wins under Wilks. If the culture had truly changed we would not have lost to the Steelers who have been mediocre for years at home the way we did and they were starting Mitch Trubisky ffs. We did not change our culture for the better and we won games that ultimately meant nothing. It was just a brief mirage. We've done this for years now. The harsh truth of the matter is the Panthers have not had a winning season or been to the playoffs in going on 8 years but in those years they've been trying to convince themselves they aren't poo but in the process all they've done throughout most of that time period is squander better draft position and we were still the worst team in the league for our troubles. At the end of the day we should be able to just be adults and reconcile with that. And no that isn't being "pro tank" or any other boogeyman term it's simply recognizing reality.
    • LinvilleGorge
      Well, the Niners just doomed themselves to mediocrity

      By LinvilleGorge · Posted

      He's an asset in a game manager role. But as soon as you have to ask him to go out there and try to make plays and not just take what the defense is giving him... well, Darnolding happens.
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