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"When will we know the new head coach?" - A three year study

Evil Hurney

By Evil Hurney,
in Carolina Panthers

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Evil Hurney Mentor

Evil Hurney

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Introduction and Raw Data:

I was curious when we might start hearing head coaches being "hired" by their new teams so I did a bit of digging. I looked at the last 3 hiring cycles and compared the earliest date when the hire was reported (NOT finalized) to the last date of the regular season. Here are the results (I apologize for any misspellings)

image.png.55894bcdf496095e2d457713a5c0d78d.png

Analysis:

I took that data and built a pseudo cumulative distribution function. The chart is fairly linear. For those curious the biggest outlier is our old friend Ron being hired a mere 2 days after the regular season.

image.png.3ba99cb6f9f1e49050a258227df2ee11.png

Takeaway:

Half of all new HC hires (in the NFL) are completed within 17 days of the final set of games. The 50% mark for this year would be January 25th.

No hire has taken more than 30 days, which would be February 7th this year.

Don't tell me the odds:

image.png.e15273f0302425fa295da5a2c4759dd5.png

Edited by Evil Hurney
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KatsAzz Grand Master

KatsAzz

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Evil Hurney said:

Introduction and Raw Data:

I was curious when we might start hearing head coaches being "hired" by their new teams so I did a bit of digging. I looked at the last 3 hiring cycles and compared the earliest date when the hire was reported (NOT finalized) to the last date of the regular season. Here are the results (I apologize for any misspellings)

image.png.55894bcdf496095e2d457713a5c0d78d.png

Analysis:

I took that data and built a pseudo cumulative distribution function. The chart is fairly linear. For those curious the biggest outlier is our old friend Ron being hired a mere 2 days after the regular season.

image.png.3ba99cb6f9f1e49050a258227df2ee11.png

Takeaway:

Half of all new HC hires (in the NFL) are completed within 17 days of the final set of games. The 50% mark for this year would be January 25th.

No hire has taken more than 30 days, which would be February 7th this year.

Don't tell me the odds:

image.png.e15273f0302425fa295da5a2c4759dd5.png

Your building of the pseudo cumulative distribution function was very impressive,to say the least..

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Icege Grand Master

Icege

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Evil Hurney said:

Introduction and Raw Data:

I was curious when we might start hearing head coaches being "hired" by their new teams so I did a bit of digging. I looked at the last 3 hiring cycles and compared the earliest date when the hire was reported (NOT finalized) to the last date of the regular season. Here are the results (I apologize for any misspellings)

image.png.55894bcdf496095e2d457713a5c0d78d.png

Analysis:

I took that data and built a pseudo cumulative distribution function. The chart is fairly linear. For those curious the biggest outlier is our old friend Ron being hired a mere 2 days after the regular season.

image.png.3ba99cb6f9f1e49050a258227df2ee11.png

Takeaway:

Half of all new HC hires (in the NFL) are completed within 17 days of the final set of games. The 50% mark for this year would be January 25th.

No hire has taken more than 30 days, which would be February 7th this year.

Don't tell me the odds:

image.png.e15273f0302425fa295da5a2c4759dd5.png

Good post is good.

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1of10Charnatives Mentor

1of10Charnatives

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Posted (edited)

Interesting analysis. Great chart. I am guessing that two of the factors driving quick hiring (guessing when you look at non sports industries, the hiring of highly visible, top level, multi million dollar positions do not normally play out nearly as quickly), are the limited pool of perceived viable candidates (pro teams tend not to consider the literally hundreds of professional and college level head coaches and coordinators that make up the nominal hiring pool, but rather almost immediately focus nearly exclusively on a handful of these candidates), and the pressure of impending duties the new coach and his as yet to be hired staff will assume.

What's the first non draft activity a coaching staff needs to be prepared for, OTA's?

KInd of makes for an interesting question:

Are NFL teams doing it all wrong? In the grand scheme of things, what's more important, being sure you've got the right head coach in place for the future, or making sure that coach has as much time to prepare for the draft and OTA's as possible?

Given the rate of league turnover at head coaching positions and the presumed ability of any competent FO staff to prep for the draft without constant hand holding by the coaching staff, is there Moneyball like opportunity for a team or team to buck the trend and decide it's more important to not rush and take their time hiring a coach?

Is this even a workable approach given how firmly entrenched hiring norms in the league are at present?

Edited by 1of10Charnatives
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