Situational QBR, Completion, and off target percentages for rookie QB class

[panther4life]

READ THIS FIRST:

These stats lack context, for example if someone had a great or bad accuracy in one area, it does not show you how many times they made that type of pass. For example if someone had a perfect 100% completion percentage but only made that throw 2 times, vs someone who made that same throw 50 times and had a 84% completion percentage, then the lower guy may be in fact better. The article did not contain this info. Also QBR also includes running ability vs passer rating which only considers passes. 

Some detailed stats from Espn today, no link as it's subscription based. The original charts had 9 players total, based on their rankings I decided to parse it down to just these 5. So while the bottom one may have ranked 5th here, they could have ranked 9th overall  in the original chart.

QBR Inside of Pocket:

1. Hooker 88.3

2. Stroud 86.3

3. Young 82.6

4. Levis 75.6

5.Richard 64.0

FBS average: 63.7

QBR outside of pocket

1. Young 95.7

2. Hooker 88.4

3. Richardson 81

4. Stroud 69

5. Levis 20.7

FBS average 60.5

QBR When Blitzed:

1. Young, 89.9

2. Hooker, 88.9

3.Stroud, 85.3

4. Levis, 60.9

5.Richardson, 50.4

FBS average: 59.4

QBR When (actually) pressured

1. Stroud, 30.6

2. Young, 30.1 

3. Richardson, 17.4

4. Levis, 14.1

5. Hooker, 7.8

FBS average, 14.0

Deep Ball (21+ yards down field) completion percentage:

1. Stroud 50%

2. Young 45%

3 .Levis 42.1%

4. Richardson 41.5%

5. Hooker, 41%

FBS average 36.9%

Deep Ball Off-Target percentage:

1. Young 25%

2. Stroud 32.7%

3. Richardson 34%

4. Hooker 37.7%

5. Levis 39.5%

FBS average 37%

Out Route (11-20 yards downfield to outside the numbers, from pocket ) completion percentage

1. Hooker 80%

2. Stroud 66.7%

3. Richardson 52.9%

4. Levis 42.9%

5. Young 40.7%

FBS average 48.9%

Out Route (11-20 yards downfield to outside the numbers, from pocket ) off target percentage

1. Hooker 10%

2. Stroud 13.3%

3. Young 22.2%

4. Levis 28.6%

5. Richardson 29.4%

FBS average 23.1%

Intermediate off target percentage (11-20 yards downfield, they did not include completion percentage for this stat)

1.  Levis 6.4%

2. Hooker 10.3%

3. Young 11.9%

4. Richardson 14.4%

5. Stroud 17%

FBS average 23.1%

Short off-target percentage (10 yards or less downfield, again no completion percentage stat listed here)

1. Young 1.8%

2. Hooker 5.3%

3. Levis 5.9%

4. Stroud 6%

5. Richardson 8.2%

FBS average 5.8%

 

Edited March 21, 2023 by panther4life

[Bear Hands]

This does Levis no favors.  Yikes.

I also foresee lively Hooker conversation ahead as he's much more in line with Stroud and Young at the top than Richardson or WL with these metrics.

[CarolinaLivin]

Nice post

[t96]

The blitz/pressure numbers are interesting as Stroud gets a lot of criticism on that front.

[ForJimmy]

36 minutes ago, t96 said:

The blitz/pressure numbers are interesting as Stroud gets a lot of criticism on that front.

That's what I was thinking.  I thought playing under pressure was his weakness?  These numbers are telling a different story.  It looks like he is just not that great outside of the pocket.  

[jb2288]

36 minutes ago, t96 said:

The blitz/pressure numbers are interesting as Stroud gets a lot of criticism on that front.

On the flip side the out of pocket numbers are not good for Stroud (comparatively) which would be easy for an NFL defense to exploit if something he cannot figure out at the next level

[trucpfan]

Crazy as it seems I now can see us trading back to 3 and taking Hooker. As they said he’ll play when ready ie. when he’s healed and ready he can step right in and get busy. 

[MHS831]

1 hour ago, t96 said:

The blitz/pressure numbers are interesting as Stroud gets a lot of criticism on that front.

that is what I wanted to see the most---thanks for providing this information OP

From these numbers, you can see how close Young and Stroud really are. 

QBR

Both are significantly better than the average NCAA QB in terms of QB rating.  In these 4 categories, Young is +25.2 above the FBS average and Stroud is +18.4 above the FBS average.  When compared to each other, Young has a fairly significant advantage when facing a blitz (+4.6 Young) and a tremendous advantage throwing outside the pocket (+26.7).  When inside the pocket, Stroud has a slightly less significant QBR advantage (+3.7 Stroud).  The ability outside the pocket is the biggest advantage for Young.  Without that category, the QBs are pretty even.

COMPLETION/OFF TARGET %

Here I will summarize--first, I found it interesting that Stroud had a higher percentage of deep balls completed (+5%) over Young, but Young's deep passes were on target more often (7.7%) That means three of four of Young's passes over 21 yards were catchable balls, while Stroud can say that over two out of three were catchable.  That suggests that Stroud had the better receivers.

Young has a red flag in that his completion percentage on deep outs from the pocket was 40%--about 8% below the FBS average and 26% lower than Stroud.  That is an important pass to throw in the NFL.  However, his off target percentage for the same throw was 5.1% better than Stroud's, so that makes little sense. Were Bama WRs and TEs that much worse that Buckeyes'?  Young has a significant accuracy advantage on the short throws, while Stroud is worse than FBS average.

From this perspective, I think these QBs are close, but I would give Young the advantage only after looking into his performance on deep sideline routes. I am sure the Panthers will be watching film and testing his arm strength to make that throw on time from the pocket.  Young's accuracy numbers are significantly higher than his completion percentages.  I would be happy with either QB.

Hooker belongs in the Richardson/Levis category, based on these stats

 

Edited March 21, 2023 by MHS831

[WUnderhill]

So basically Young excels at literally everything except out routes from the pocket.

[panther4life]

I really wish ESPN would have included the number of pass attempts attached to each stat. 

The only context mentioned in the article said that Stroud was 20 of 30 on out routes (the 3rd most in this exercise of 9 QB's). From the article it says no QB in the last 5 years completed 2/3rds of their out route passes like Stroud has when attempting 30 or more. Also mentioned Stroud had as many TD passes on out routes as he did missed targets on out routes (4 each). 

Hooker was 8 of 10 on out routes, and that Levis was 3 for 7 on them.

The out route seems to be of importance in the NFL, especially on 2 minute drill situations. 

I don't know this to be 100% fact but when watching their games, I swear I saw more intermediate and deep passes by Stroud than Young. I also believe Young escaped the pocket more and threw from outside of it a lot more than Stroud. 

There is so much to like about Stroud and Young but I am at least starting to see more and more why Young has been the consensus number 1. Either way I think both would thrive under our current staff and can't wait to see who they eventually settle on.

 

 

[Seltzer]

I think Stroud or Young should be able to develop into a franchise guy with the right coaching and scheme.

It's so much better for this franchise that we have Reich & Co running the show for this to happen than Rhule's circus, b/c I think we actually have the infrastructure in place to be successful.

[amcoolio]

In the Hurts draft I thought he was underrated and failed to see why everyone considered him a 2nd round QB at the max, the dude was a born winner and was going to make it work.

Same with Hooker. Teams at the end of the 1st that need a future QB would be very dumb to pass on him. He should not make it past Tampa at 19

[ECHornet]

Great info. Thanks for posting 

[Bluetooth]

 

1 hour ago, WUnderhill said:

So basically Young excels at literally everything except out routes from the pocket.

I'm sold