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Barnwell: Ranking NFL's best potential head coach openings for 2023

UNCrules2187

By UNCrules2187,
in Carolina Panthers

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UNCrules2187 Mentor

UNCrules2187

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ESPN+ article, but some interesting nuggets. Here's the order and some snippets:

7. Colts

6. Broncos

5. Cardinals

4. Commanders

3. Texans

2. Saints

1. Panthers

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The first decision for the Panthers now is to determine whether Wilks deserves the permanent job. It would be difficult to argue against him earning an interview for the opportunity given what he has done, but interim coaches typically don't live up to their interim results after being given the full-time job. Carolina doesn't have a single victory over a team with a winning record. The NFC South was a mess, and even if it had won the division, it wasn't in position to make a significant run in the postseason.

 

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If some combination of quarterback and coach wants to link up this offseason to go to a new team together, Carolina is the obvious landing spot. The most heavily rumored duo of Brady and Sean Payton would be an easy fit, but the Saints would surely prefer to see their longtime coach head outside the NFC South. A more realistic option might be Shane Steichen and Gardner Minshew from Philadelphia or DeMeco Ryans and Jimmy Garoppolo from San Francisco.

 

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The Panthers don't have much cap room after a series of restructures, but they likely will go down the Saints' path of creating short-term space around a promising young core. It's one thing to restructure wideout Michael Thomas after nearly two years out of football and another to trust that receiver DJ Moore, offensive tackle Taylor Moton and linebacker Shaq Thompson will be significant contributors for the next several seasons. A new deal for star edge rusher Brian Burns will also create cap space.

 

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The closest comparable for where the Panthers stand might be with last year's Broncos. Denver was pushing toward .500, had young talent on both sides of the ball and believed the only thing standing between it and contention was a franchise quarterback. Of course, a year later, the Broncos' dreams are in shambles. The Panthers seem similarly appealing now and don't have the same bear of a division weighing down their chances of making a deep playoff run in the years to come, but they still have to hire the two most important people in any organization.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/35342127/ranking-nfl-best-worst-potential-head-coach-openings-2023-colts-broncos-panthers

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TheCasillas Grand Master

TheCasillas

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8 minutes ago, UNCrules2187 said:

The Panthers don't have much cap room after a series of restructures, but they likely will go down the Saints' path of creating short-term space around a promising young core. It's one thing to restructure wideout Michael Thomas after nearly two years out of football and another to trust that receiver DJ Moore, offensive tackle Taylor Moton and linebacker Shaq Thompson will be significant contributors for the next several seasons. A new deal for star edge rusher Brian Burns will also create cap space.

It is actually pretty insane how much cap space we can create due to our down the line flexibility. You can add ~20 million off of just two players (not named Brian Burns) alone. 

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Panthercougar68 Grand Master

Panthercougar68

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Where is that thread that was basically “sky r falling”

I fully believe that Wilks helped make this attractive because of Matt was still here we’d be looking at 3-14 but “not attractive” because you get the “no talent” moniker because we would be losing games 30-10 like San Fran.

Edited by Panthercougar68
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UNCrules2187 Mentor

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In the article, Barnwell linked to an old Grantland article from 2015 that showed the record of interim HCs who were then promoted to full time HC: https://grantland.com/the-triangle/nfl-week-8-picks-the-weight-of-the-interim-label/

Coach Year Team Pre-Interim Post-Interim Future Years Future Records
Bruce Coslet 1996 Bengals 1-6 7-2 4 14-37
Dave McGinnis 2000 Cardinals 2-5 1-8 3 16-32
Dick LeBeau 2000 Bengals 0-3 4-9 2 8-24
Jason Garrett 2010 Cowboys 1-7 5-3 9 80-64
Jeff Fisher 1994 Oilers 1-9 1-5 16 141-115
Leslie Frazier 2010 Vikings 3-7 3-3 3 18-29-1
Mike Singletary 2008 49ers 2-5 5-4 2 13-18
Mike Tice 2001 Vikings 5-10 0-1 4 32-32
Richard Williamson 1990 Buccaneers 5-8 1-2 1 3-13
Romeo Crennel 2011 Chiefs 5-8 2-1 1 2-14
Tom Cable 2008 Raiders 1-3 4-8 2 13-19
    Record 26-71 33-46   340-397-1
    Win% 0.268 0.418   0.461

 

Note that I updated the table to include the full results of Garrett's tenure with Dallas. The only additions to the above since then would be Mike Mularkey in Tennessee and Doug Marrone which would be:

Coach Year Team Pre-Interim Post-Interim Future Years Future Records
Mike Mularkey 2015 Titans 1-6 2-7 2 18-14
Doug Marrone 2016 Jaguars 2-12 1-1 4 22-42
                                   Record  29-89          36-54                                   380-453-1         
    Win% 0.246 0.400   0.456

 

This is one of the things that gives me pause about hiring Wilks as the full time HC. It just historically hasn't worked well. The only ones that I'd say are decent to good are Fisher and Garrett and neither struck me as great HCs. I actually feel like Wilks would probably be in the same realm as those guys...occasional playoff runs with a bunch of medicore seasons.

 

Edited by UNCrules2187
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Captain Morgan Grand Master

Captain Morgan

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we do a very talents young core...adding a QB and someone who knows how to use him could turn this team around quickly.

Stud WR?  check

Stud DE?  check

Stud CB?  check

Stud LT?  check.

Stud DT? check

Offensive line?  check

adding a QB to this group and we are set for years of winning....and we have plenty of picks to add to this team, very appealing to a new coach.  Just need that QB.

Compared to the other teams on that list, yeah we look pretty good.

Meddling owner?  check.  This could be the problem.  We'll see

 

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LinvilleGorge Grand Master

LinvilleGorge

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6 minutes ago, Captain Morgan said:

we do a very talents young core...adding a QB and someone who knows how to use him could turn this team around quickly.

Stud WR?  check

Stud DE?  check

Stud CB?  check

Stud LT?  check.

Stud DT? check

Offensive line?  check

adding a QB to this group and we are set for years of winning....and we have plenty of picks to add to this team, very appealing to a new coach.  Just need that QB.

Compared to the other teams on that list, yeah we look pretty good.

Meddling owner?  check.  This could be the problem.  We'll see

 

This is what I've been saying about the roster. We have a young stud at every key position outside of QB. 

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*FreeFua* Grand Master

*FreeFua*

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46 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

This is what I've been saying about the roster. We have a young stud at every key position outside of QB. 

Which is why the time is now to go get your guy

At some point all these guys are going to need to be paid. Burns is up now. Brown next. 

Go out and get your QB this offseason while you still have 4 seasons of Ekwonu’s rookie deal left

5 year rookie QB contract + 4 years left on a rookie LT contract… that puts you in a fantastic spot. Add in the fact we have a good OL and other important positions covered… those are reasons for optimism 

Edited by *FreeFua*
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Pejorative Miscreant Grand Master

Pejorative Miscreant

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2 hours ago, UNCrules2187 said:

ESPN+ article, but some interesting nuggets. Here's the order and some snippets:

7. Colts

6. Broncos

5. Cardinals

4. Commanders

3. Texans

2. Saints

1. Panthers

 

 

 

 

I’m confused. I thought  coaches vying for 1 of 32 nfl coaching jobs on the planet would opt for a Wal Mart greeting positions instead cause our owner is a billionaire with an ego.  
 

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joemac Grand Master

joemac

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2 hours ago, TheCasillas said:

It is actually pretty insane how much cap space we can create due to our down the line flexibility. You can add ~20 million off of just two players (not named Brian Burns) alone. 

Whats insane to me about our cap situation next year (as it stands now) is that we are right up against it, and the only QB we have under contract is Corral on a 3rd round rookie deal.

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