The State of the Panthers

[Mr. Scot]

There's a hole in the bucket
Dear Liza, Dear Liza
There's a hole in the bucket
Dear Liza, a hole...

You may or may not remember this old song (perhaps only the Sesame Street version of it if you do) but it's an exchange between dimwitted Henry and his longsuffering wife Liza about not being able to draw water from their well because there's a hole in their bucket and Henry can't figure out how to fix it. The whole conversation ends up coming full circle back to the fact that they need water to wet a sharpening stone, but of course can't get it because "there's a hole in the bucket".

That song is a pretty good summary of the Panthers right now.

Heaven knows there's no shortage of suggestions about how to fix the team, but I daresay most of them don't understand the full scope of things or where the real issues lie.

So here's a look at how I see the "hole in the bucket", starting with...

The Panthers have no run game

This is where the offensive issues start.  The team generally can't run for more than a yard or two at a time. You could easily and naturally attribute that to the fact that our starting guards are out with injury, though one at least is soon to return.

Will that fix things?

Probably not, at least not entirely, for a specific reason, and it isn't because the good guys we had last year suddenly turned to crap.  

No, the biggest issue is that the blocking scheme we're employing right now doesn't fit the personnel we have.

The WCO type offense that Reich and Brown favor typically employs a zone blocking scheme. Generally speaking, zone blocking is better suited to smaller, more agile linemen and we've spent the last couple of years loading up on "road grader" types. Those guys fit well in the kind of E-P style attack Ben McAdoo and Steve Wilks employed.

The current offense? Not so much.

With that in mind, you've got two options: change the scheme or get new linemen.

Getting a new offensive line obviously isn't something you can do in midseason, but even if you're thinking long-term, changing the scheme would be the easier choice. 

Unfortunately, Frank Reich hasn't shown any indication he's prepared to do that. This despite insisting over the offseason that he preferred scheming around personnel rather than trying to force square pegs into round holes.

Until he does, I'm not sure anything much is going to change.

Unfortunately, that's not all there is to it...

Issues with playcalling

"Okay then, if Reich is part of the problem then him giving up playcalling should help fix the offense, right?"

It's not that simple.

Reich didn't write the plays that we're running alone. By all reports, Thomas Brown had a significant (possibly even equal) role in coming up with our current attack. So unless one or both of them are willing to write new plays that will employ a better suited blocking scheme, changing the playcaller doesn't necessarily fix anything. Worth noting also that Brown came to us from McVay's Rams who also used a lot of WCO concepts, so he's not a sure fire cure all.

That of course is only one side of things, there's also...

The trouble with the passing game

"What about the passing game, then?"

Regardless of who's calling the plays, you also have to throw in that we don't have the kind of passing attack that can make teams back off either. Teams know that they can load up against the run because we can't consistently pass downfield.

"So if we get that going then we should be able to run a balanced offense, right?"

Great idea...but how?

"Well, let's start with getting a deep throat receiver."

Some have been encouraged by reports that the Panthers are looking to trade for a top receiver. Other tidbits I've seen though indicate that's not really happening.

Whether it is or not though, while it sounds like a nice idea, again it's not that simple.

Technically, that's what DJ Chark was supposed to be, but it isn't panning out that way. In fact, all attempts so far to make the long game work haven't exactly been successful. 

Adding in another receiver unfortunately doesn't guarantee anything. Neither have any of the other options in our corps been especially effective, which leads to the next question...

Is it Bryce? 

"Could we bench Bryce Young for Dalton and then maybe get things going?"

How'd that work out in Seattle (where we had 58 pass attempts)?

I know some want to blame the passing deficiencies strictly on Bryce Young, and he may ultimately bear some blame for it, but until we can see him consistently protected it's way too early to make those judgments. Also way way too early to start talking about his being a bust.

Young was certainly able to hit downfield targets in training camp...back when he wasn't constantly running for his life. But in order to have that same kind of chemistry with the receiving corps (or at least somebody other than Adam Thielen) he'd need to have enough time to actually throw downfield.

He hasn't.

To date, the offensive line minus Corbett and Christensen hasn't exactly given him much opportunity to scan the field and/or make his throws. In fact, he's been consistently under duress. And even when he has had time his downfield accuracy has looked subpar.

So ultimately, we're right back where we started with an offensive line that isn't suited to what we're trying to do.

The other side of the ball

"What about the defense", someone will likely ask, "Why can't we seem to stop anyone?"

I'd say that's probably mostly personnel, and more specifically injuries.

We pretty much haven't fielded a healthy secondary in a single game this year so it's kind of hard to judge that area Prior to that we at least had personnel that were better suited to a 3-4 than the college defense they were running under Phil Snow (at least when healthy).

Even with the patchwork secondary though, there's an argument to be made that the run defense is a bigger problem. Granted, 3-4 schemes are frequently weak against the rush anyway, but we're also missing kind of an important player there as well in Shaq Thompson. Yes, Thompson was overpaid, but that doesn't mean he was bad. And he's definitely missed.

All that said, the defense is definitely not the biggest part of the losing problem. They've typically done enough, or at least close to enough if the offense did their part.

One note on that point: I know it's popular to suggest that Ejiro Evero should be elevated to head coach, but I'd call that premature for a lot of reasons (some of which I'll get into shortly)

Okay, soooo...

"What's the quick fix then?"

I've got some bad news for you...

There isn't one.

Players getting healthy will certainly help, but it won't fix everything. Even if the scheme can be adjusted, that'll take time. At the moment though, that doesn't even seem to be in the works. Until it is, it's hard to expect much to change.

Yes, that's on Reich. No, it isn't a reason to fire him midseason or after one year. 

Nor is it a reason to fire Scott Fitterer. Despite what some may try to tell you, Fitterer isn't solely responsible for all the personnel decisions made over the last few years as he's a consensus guy. Has he been the guy in charge though? Yes, and as such a lightning rod, which is a big reason why firing him is a popular sentiment. 

And here's an unpopular one...

Truly fixing this team is going to require patience.

Yes, I know it's been a long time since we've won, but the current GM and coaching combo has only been in place this year. Laying the problems of previous regimes on them is neither fair nor valid.

As far as the current group, seeming unwillingness to scheme around the personnel we have is my biggest issue with Frank Reich right now, not the playcalling. That, along with some of the personnel/depth chart decisions which some might argue are just as big a problem. Either way though, until we have different play designs that do fit our personnel, changing who's choosing them won't matter.

As to Fitterer, as much as I know people don't want to hear this, yes it's still too soon to judge him. Case in point: he built a very solid offensive line for what McAdoo and Wilks wanted to do. Frank Reich using them incorrectly isn't his fault. Likewise, forcing Reich to start over with somebody brand new isn't the easy solution some believe it to be.

More to the point though, his having spent the past few years trying to get players that fit a different scheme is a big reason why previously drafted players are gone. This is the first season that he and the rest of the front office have worked off of Frank Reich's grocery list.

And heck, we haven't even had a fall off season with Adrian Wilson yet. Dan Morgan being around for a full year made a difference in free agent decisions. Wilson could have a similar effect.

The reality is this: it was always going to be a transition, and possibly a rough one.

Now, does that mean Fitterer is a good GM?

No, it doesn't. He certainly had a good enough resumé to be hired as one and I've liked some of what he's done (especially in the front office building department) but the jury's still out.

And despite the feverishly bloodthirsty ranting of some, It also hasn't been proven that he's a bad one. 

As infuriating as it might sound, his grade is still "incomplete".

But again, some are still demanding a sacrifice...

Candidates to fall on the sword 

"So then who should be fired?"

Honestly, If we're smart, nobody just yet. 

I've long said "talk to me next year". And yes, I'm still saying it.

Far too many fans have a "lottery ticket' mentality when it comes to football. By that, I mean that if the team as constructed isn't an "instant winner", you automatically "buy another ticket" in the form of new players, a new coach or a new GM.

Sometimes that's ultimately the right call, but too many people come to that conclusion much too quickly.

Again, I know the villagers want blood, but appeasing the riotous crowd with a scapegoat is rarely the smart play.

Even if you do insist that someone must be sacrificed though, here's something else to consider...

The decision maker 

Who's making that call?

Obviously, there's not a lot of faith in David Tepper (nor should there be). That's why the route of just having him throw somebody on the altar isn't a smart one.

Plenty of people are saying that he doesn't know who to hire. Maybe he doesn't, but given that what makes you think he knows who to fire?

Remember when Tepper fired Ron Rivera over Marty Hurney and then let Marty and Steve Drummond lead the search for his successor? Who did that search lead us to?

You really want to put that in his hands again? I sure don't.

"Well, what, then?"

Before I would support any kind of change to the football operation - firing, hiring, reassignment or whatever - Tepper needs to stop trusting himself and bring in someone who knows what they're doing. 

The ideal person for that has been available for a while now in the form of Kevin Colbert. Bringing in a guy like Colbert as a team president and then letting him evaluate the operation from top to bottom would make way more sense than just trusting David Tepper to burn it all down and build it back up again. 

Even just burning it all down isn't something you can trust Tepper to do because there's the huge risk of throwing out the baby with the bathwater. And unfortunately, that's something the bloodthirsty crowd doesn't seem to understand.

They really should, especially given that we have good pieces like Adrian Wilson in place right now and no guarantee that a new GM would keep them around. And if you think Tepper would just promote the right person from within, I'd remind you who it is we're talking about making that decision, i.e. that guy who you're pissed at for making all the wrong ones in the past.

So here's my take on what to do...

First off, ride out this season without any changes, not even to lower level assistants. 

Heck, who knows what the season will look like in December? If you assume it'll still look the same as right now, may very well be wrong. The full story isn't told yet, and making decisions before it is would be premature.

But once those decisions are ready to be made, you have to have someone you trust making them.

That's why you bring in a guy like Colbert (or someone like him) and let them evaluate everything.

If something like that doesn't happen, then it all likelihood we're just spinning our wheels.

Bottom Line: 

There's a hole in the bucket Dear Liza (a really big one, in fact) but before you let Dear Henry get to work on patching it, you need to find somebody who can tell him how to do it right.

Until then, the next verses to the song will stay just as circular as they are now.

[therealmjl]

tldr

[Harbingers]

 

is the state…

[mrcompletely11]

4 minutes ago, therealmjl said:

tldr

Fire Fitt

[4Corners]

Jim Harbaugh about to get a big extension so we can scratch him off next years wish list 

[mrcompletely11]

my god dude, after all that you cannot be serious about fitt.

[countryboi]

The running game sucks and fire Fitt and reevaluate everyone during the offseason.

 

[Swirly]

To be honest, I'm not worried about Bryce yet. He's a rookie and there are going to be growing pains. I just keep reminding myself that Peyton Manning had a pretty bad rookie year as well.

[scpanther22]

I don't have enough passion left in me to write this much about the panthers anymore lol

[TheBigKat]

[AceBoogie]

I’d never thought I’d see the day where I’d be appreciating a Mr. Scot post. Well said sir. 

[Castavar]

7 minutes ago, Swirly said:

To be honest, I'm not worried about Bryce yet. He's a rookie and there are going to be growing pains. I just keep reminding myself that Peyton Manning had a pretty bad rookie year as well.

I am so fuggin tired of everybody saying this. Peyton did not have a bad rookie year. Yes, he threw a lot of ints, but he also set the NFL rookie records for completions (326), attempts (575), passing yards (3,739) and touchdown passes (26). Stop with this narrative.

[frankw]

25 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

The reality is this: it was always going to be a transition, and possibly a rough one.

Now, does that mean Fitterer is a good GM?

No, it doesn't. He certainly had a good enough resumé to be hired as one and I've liked some of what he's done (especially in the front office building department) but the jury's still out.

And despite the feverishly bloodthirsty ranting of some, It also hasn't been proven that he's a bad one. 

As infuriating as it might sound, his grade is still "incomplete".

He's a bad GM.

To even argue he isn't is ridiculous beyond words after some of the messes that Marty Hurney has overseen in years past. This gives those a run for their money if not actually being significantly worse considering what we have mortgaged and traded to get to this point.

Edited October 9, 2023 by frankw

[BIGH2001]

We’ll revisit this post after we become the first team to finish 0-17.