A draft/trade question for my fellow Huddlers. Is a franchise QB worth (3) #1 draft choices?

[NAS]

Short answer - not when you have s**t head coach and offensive line

[Mr. Scot]

Anybody remember what the Chargers gave up in order to draft Ryan Leaf?

[Davidson Deac II]

16 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Given that they chose Tua over Justin Herbert, I'm gonna say the "smart" part probably doesn't apply.

Hindsight makes it easy to be smart. 

If Trey Lance ends up being a future HOF qb, while Trevor Lawrence ends up a journeyman qb, would that mean the Jaguars were dumb to take him over Lance?

Edited January 20, 2022 by Davidson Deac II

[PNW_PantherMan]

Part of the reason why the Rams trade away their 1sts is because they view them like 2nd round picks.  Most draft experts will tell you there's 15 or so guys that are top prospects, and then it drops down to the next level of guys.  The Rams expect to pick in the later half of the draft every year, so they are not valuing those picks like a bad team would.

That being said, I don't think we're in a position to trade the farm for a QB.  Deshaun Watson would basically be in the same situation as Houston, just in the NFC.

We need a new staff, and we should actually try drafting a QB instead of these ridiculous short cuts.

[Waldo]

19 minutes ago, TheProcess said:

The 49ers didn't trade 3 first round picks to get Lance. They traded 2 (2022 and 2023) firsts along with their 2022 3rd to move from 12th to 3rd in the 2021 draft.

You are correct. I keep remembering it as 3 for some reason. 

I would have taken that bet for sure. 

[Mr. Scot]

6 minutes ago, Davidson Deac II said:

Hindsight makes it easy to be smart. 

If Trey Lance ends up being a future HOF qb, while Trevor Lawrence ends up a journeyman qb, would that mean the Jaguars were dumb to take him over Lance?

Some teams are smart without hindsight.

Granted, we're not one of those right now.

[BrianS]

Statistically, the answer to the OP is no.  First round QB's generally hit at about a 50% rate.  Odds are three first round picks would be at least one good QB and at least one "something else".  However, if someone said to me today, Justin Herbert or Joe Burrow for our next three first rounders I'd bite their hand off taking that deal.

But in all seriousness, things have to fall right and your scouting has to work and your staff has to be good at development . . . so many cards have to fall into place.  When the collective wisdom of the minds behind 32 NFL teams only get it right 50% of the time, who am I to guess at the next franchise QB to be drafted?

Working under the assumption you pick a guy your scouts like every year, with two first round picks there's still a 25% chance that you end up with no QB.  Even with three, there's still a 12.5% you end up with no QB.

Unfortunately, QB's generally don't show themselves immediately as success or failure.  Herbert and Burrow are very odd in that regard that it's very clear they ARE the real deal.  It's usually a lot muddier.  So while your franchise may be willing to spend three picks, you don't generally spend them three straight years.  You draft a QB you believe in, give him a year or two and then decide he isn't it.

Giving up three straight?  That'd be hard.

Edited January 20, 2022 by BrianS

[Khyber53]

No one is worth three draft choices that anyone wants to get rid of. 

 

[MHS831]

Would you trade Burns, Brown, and Horn for a franchise QB?

[Basbear]

Herbert yes. 

Not Mahomes unless Reid comes with. Id throw a few steak burgers to make it happen !

[L-TownCat]

3 hours ago, SCO96 said:

 

KillaCam is saying that the Rams have been one of the NFL's better teams over the past 5 seasons. If they win their next two games they could represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. That's impressive without any first round picks for nearly half a decade.

But, they've got to win while the window is open. Not having those picks is ultimately going to catch up to them. They've got to win in the next 2-3 seasons to justify the moves.

Explanation unnecessary.

My “and” was rhetorical as I do not believe they’ve succeeded b/c they didn’t have 1st round picks.  They won in spite of it with top notch coaching and proven vets.

If folks have the slightest notion we could pull that off, they should go ahead and hop in the bath with a toaster.

[mrcompletely11]

22 minutes ago, Basbear said:

Herbert yes. 

Not Mahomes unless Reid comes with. Id throw a few steak burgers to make it happen !

Mahomes is worth 6 first round draft picks

[onmyown]

I feel like good teams don’t need to do this, just due diligence and proper drafting should get you there. I mean three first round picks? Using all three, three years in a row trying to find that guy, on a rookie deal, is better than just trading away.

And if you are so inept one can be found with three first, I feel like there are bigger problems in the franchise.

There are always exceptions to the rule like the Rams, or if the QB you won’t is there now…but I mean Rodgers almost went second round…generally speaking I’d rather have a competent FO, giving up that much may be a good move but it’d make me skeptical as it’s rare.

[KillaCamNewton]

5 hours ago, Davidson Deac II said:

Hindsight makes it easy to be smart. 

If Trey Lance ends up being a future HOF qb, while Trevor Lawrence ends up a journeyman qb, would that mean the Jaguars were dumb to take him over Lance?

Ill give a better example: 2018

if the Browns drafted Josh Allen 1st overall people would have gotten fired and if the Bills drafted Baker Mayfield people would have said it was the steal of the draft

fast forward now and if thats how it would have gone were probably looking at the Browns being the Super Bowl favorite and the Bills would be drafting in the Top 10