"We should have traded Burns" - a rebuttal

[Catsfan69]

Burns simply isn't that good. He doesn't have the effort. He doesn't have a burning desire to get to the QB like Watt and Bosa

[Catsfan69]

Burns simply isn't that good. He doesn't have the effort. He doesn't have a burning desire to get to the QB like Watt and Bosa.

Not trading him was stupid

[top dawg]

42 minutes ago, stbugs said:

That’s bunk about future picks and most teams. The only teams that don’t care as much about future firsts are win now/contender teams. We absolutely would be stupid to not treat a future first as a first. The player you select in 2024 1st is a first round talent and a better player (on average) than the 2023 2nd or 3rd rounder (for 2025 1st). There’s a reason why rebuilding teams like Miami was or Jets/Jax/Giants are happy to take multiple firsts. Funny that all of those 4 teams are likely in the playoffs or one game away.

If you aren’t (we aren’t) a SB contended in 2023, getting a 2024 and 2025 1st round pick is great because you don’t worry about having a 2nd and 3rd rounder now. It’s amazing with how much better we draft in the 1st, yet people in here are trying to say that future firsts aren’t valuable. Look at the last 6 drafts when we’ve selected in the top half of the 1st (most likely where the Rams picks will be), our back to back firsts are CMC and Moore, Moore and Burns, Burns and Brown, Brown and Horn, and Horn and Iky. Yep, future firsts aren’t as valuable as Samuel, Donte, Little, YGM, Marshall, and whoever we have to the Jets.

Only a Huddler would try and convince us that a first is really a second or a third even. That's some new math right there if I've ever seen it.

[bigdog10]

Here we have another thread that outlines the fact that our GM is quite possibly in over his head. The lack of depth at DE is a major concern. 
 

Im willing to give Fitt a pass and say that Rhule was driving the bus, but if he neglects pass rushers again; he needs to go. 

[Mr. Scot]

2 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I think our history of making atrocious second round picks really skews Panthers' fans concept of value of 2nd round picks. Most teams are getting good players there.

The GM who made that pick was the same one responsible for a lot of those prior round two failures.

[ForJimmy]

25 minutes ago, top dawg said:

Only a Huddler would try and convince us that a first is really a second or a third even. That's some new math right there if I've ever seen it.

So do you think we can acquire a pick just for a future pick in the same round? To get even a mid third for Corral it to a future 3rd PLUS a current 4th. It’s because future kicks don’t hold as much value. We can’t acquire a current 1st (even a late one) just for a future 1st or any round for that matter. It’s time value plus the unknown of where that pick will be.

[YourLastThought]

6 hours ago, mrcompletely11 said:

One huge flaw in your argument.   We are not winning NOW.  We are still a ways away from being competitive.   2 years minimum.   And that’s best case scenario 

Nobody can predict how many years we are away as we have absolutely zero idea what we could do in the off-season with the draft and free agency. Make the right moves and all of a sudden the window is open now.

[Peon Awesome]

This might be a crazy thought, but Chicago, Seattle and Arizona could all use a pass rusher. You probably go Will Anderson and Jalen Carter for 2 of those picks but after that Burns is a much surer thing than anyone else at that point. Do you see if Burns could be the central piece for a trade for pick 4 and jump the Colts who are clearly going to take a qb? 

[carpanfan96]

Not gonna quote everyone on this but coaches and gms have talked about it. 

 

A future first is worth a pick in the middle of its round divided by 2 and that goes down the further out it is. 

 

So next year's first from the Rams would have a draft value of a pick in the middle of the 2nd round, the one after that would have a value of a third round pick. 

 

That's how draft pick trade valuation works. 

 

Every single team uses similar valuation charts

[GoobyPls]

1 hour ago, stbugs said:

Then fire Fitterer. If he’s making decisions based on not getting fired in year two, he’s Hurney 3.0 not someone who’s looking to build a complete team for a decade run.

Decade run lol, nobody is building looking 10 years down the road they are trying to win now

[TheMaulClaw]

Burns is a liability on every down that isn't a pass rushing down and he disappears in big games.

[GoobyPls]

25 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Hmm, the good teams and staffs do. How long have the Pats been playoff contenders? Rodgers and the Packers? How come the Steelers and Ravens seem to be good every year with Tomlin and Harbaugh?

Maybe Fitterer isn’t but the long standing good teams we envy plan like that. If you get your franchise QB, you should expect it to be a decade long run. If Cam didnt have should issues, you don’t think our run would have been a decade? Dude was in the playoffs 4 out of 5 years until his shoulder fell off well before the normal QB expiration date.

So yes, there are a lot of teams that are thinking like that even if you don’t think so. There’s only one Stafford/Rams. There are more KCs, Buffalos, Bengals and others who have a younger franchise QB with staying power.

You mean the patriots who are in every big name free agent over the last 15 years lol? The chiefs just used a first round pick on a RB last year, you think they are looking down the road with that pick?

And when you are established you can look that down the road a little, but someone like Fitterer has no time to hope and wait for future first round picks.

[Zaximus]

I just can't buy the double team argument either.  I've seen Tight Ends and running backs solo OWN Burns during games.  There isn't a good argument as to why it was a good thing, with what we know about Burns and how he is playing right now.  But, we have to move on, just add it to the plethora of other Panther mistakes.  The biggest thing will be when we have to re-sign him because it'll look even worse if he walks, but, now he has all the leverage knowing this.  

[thunderraiden]

10 hours ago, Ricky Spanish said:

I know a lot of people on here wanted us to trade away Burns for all those picks from the Rams. 

I'll admit, the offer was enticing, however I kept coming back to one question, "Who else do we have on this roster but Burns?"

The answer is no one really. That's why the offer from the Rams just wasn't good enough. If we were to trade Burns away, we need a first rounder NOW to help replace the huge void losing him would create. 

And the void would be huge. Sure, Burns leaves you wanting in terms of run defense, but I found something out about Burns compared to the other Sack Leaders around the NFL:

Burns Plays WAY MORE than EVERY OTHER Pass rusher ahead of him on the sack list:

Player	Snap Percentage
Nick Bosa	76%
Haason Reddick	74%
Matt Judon	77%
Myles Garrett	78%
Micah Parsons	80%
Chris Jones	81%
Brian Burns	87%

And that's including the Cincy game where he only played 66% of the snaps because we pulled him when we were getting stomped so badly. Take that game out of the equation and he's playing 89% of all the defensive snaps this year. So yeah, if he looks like he's taking some plays off, he might be, dude is gassed. It's not a conditioning issue, he is the team's only consistent pass rusher, and if we lost him we'd be completely screwed. Losing him would set our defense back significantly in terms of generating pressure against the opposing QBs.

I know QB is at the top of our list in terms of need this offseason, but I'd argue #2 is finding more consistent pass rushers to aid the only good defensive end on our team this year. Even getting some average dudes in FA that can spell Burns would go a long way in helping him and our defense out. Letting him rest one more play out of 10 would do wonders for his efficiency. 

 

What people don't understand about Burns is that he is a perineal All-Pro on a team that has an explosive offense, he has never had that in his career here. Its pretty much him and DJ moore vs the world.