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How can you predict the success of a college QB in the NFL?


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47 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

You can't.  You could narrow down the most pro ready in a draft class but whether that player will be the best of the group in the nfl is pure luck. Ususlly that guy turns out not be the best of the class. 

Agreed.  Luck may include being drafted by a team with good coaching and system (right place, right time), not getting seriously injured, talented roster with all the pieces in place on O and D, and then the universe smiles upon you, sprinkles you with fairy dust (masculine scent of course) and you get all the right calls and breaks.  Who can explain it?

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How they handle pressure coming at them is a big one for me. If you can't handle college defenses blitzing you, I don't understand how you're going to be able to handle faster defenses.

Thats why Will Levis is a huge no for me

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I was pulled toward solving this puzzle in the late 80s and early 90s while watching the 49ers and Raiders up close, and playing under different championship football programs/coaches in California and North Carolina. I focused my offensive study on Walsh, Madden, Flores, Shanahan, and Holmgren. The focus was on reverse engineering their process on evaluating players and their process of developing a QB. How were they able to spot and develop the QBs that would be franchise QBs and playoff worthy at such a consistent rate?

This led to the primary QB KPIs of decision making, pocket instincts/athleticism, clutchness, accuracy, control of vision, toughness, and self-regulation. All these qualities have measurables in the game of football. All are transferable from college to the NFL. Secondary measurables are physical like speed, agility, stamina, height, and weight. When determining draft value, the players making the cut are filtered into 4 roster values. This will establish a reliable gauge to choose QBs for the pro level. Some should be drafted in mid rounds, and others in later rounds. Rarely should you draft any QB in the 1st round without meeting 5 criteria. The best strategy is to take a QB that has dropped past their expected value - never reach.

Another quick way to find NFL champion QBs is to understand QB is an extension of a coach and a receiver is an extension of their QB. Focus in on coaches with a strong track record of directly producing NFL QBs. A quick test is to look for a pair/group of WRs/TEs that are projecting to be drafted based on stats. If these receivers look like projects, the QB should get a closer look. If these receivers look polished and ready day one for an NFL team, they are likely carrying the QB.

You will be lucky to find one QB in a draft pool that qualifies. Multiple QBs show up in a draft pool maybe once a decade. Expect to go 3 to 5 years before a QB shows up, and understand 85% of all QBs will be able to lead a good team into the playoffs if a coach shows commitment to them as the starter.

As an example, Tom Brady graded out at 6.2 and Patrick Mahomes graded out at 6.1. CJ Stroud grades out at 5.6. An average NFL QB would grade out around 4.5 to 5.0. Baker Mayfield graded out as a 1.0 failing to clear the minimum hurdles in 4 of the 6 KPIs. Brady was the only QB of these 4 coming out of college that cleared all 6 NFL hurdles. He was the only QB of the 4 NOT drafted in the 1st round.

Yes, you can predict the success of some college QBs, and you can hit on 80% of your QBs selected purposefully and patiently in the NFL draft just like Bill Walsh, Mike Holmgren, and Andy Reid.

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You can never guarantee the success of any QB, which is why you should always chase after average Joe's and hasbeens and guys who have been in the league for years but never did much except as a backup.... because you can always stumble on a Tom Brady guy you draft late or  a Geno guy who does nothing for a decade then you find him sitting in your bench and turns out to be good. You find guys like that every year. They grow in trees.

But even if you can't get one, QB is no big deal. It's just another player on the team. Anyways if you get your defense right you don't have to worry about scoring.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just in case you are wondering, that was sarcasm.

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I think it's important where the QB ends up as well. For the first time I feel we have a coaching staff (at least on paper) that can properly develop any rookie quarterback. 

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My biggest issue with Young is that he reminds me a lot of RG3. The good and the bad.  No way Young is able to stay healthy. Smaller framed QBs can stay relatively more healthy in the NFL if they aren’t a mobile QB. But as soon as they start making plays with their legs they open themselves up to injury. And once that knee or ACL goes, they are never the same. See RG3. 
 

A QB can have the physical and mental tools and the “it” factor but if they can’t stay healthy then it doesn’t matter. 
 

If the Panthers aren’t interested in Lamar Jackson because of his injury history (not 100% if that is the reason or not) then I would find it hard to believe they would be interested in Young. 

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5 hours ago, rayzor said:

You can never guarantee the success of any QB, which is why you should always chase after average Joe's and hasbeens and guys who have been in the league for years but never did much except as a backup.... because you can always stumble on a Tom Brady guy you draft late or  a Geno guy who does nothing for a decade then you find him sitting in your bench and turns out to be good. You find guys like that every year. They grow in trees.

But even if you can't get one, QB is no big deal. It's just another player on the team. Anyways if you get your defense right you don't have to worry about scoring.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just in case you are wondering, that was sarcasm.

Bart Starr, Len Dawson, Johnny Unitas, Roger Staubach, Ken Stabler, Jim Plunkett, Joe Montana, Joe Theismann, Doug Williams, Jim Hostetler, Mark Rypien, Steve Young, Brett Favre, Kurt Warner, Trent Dilfer, Tom Brady, Brad Johnson, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Hasselbeck, Jake Delhomme, Rich Gannon, Chris Chandler, Neil O'Donnell, Stan Humphries, Steve Grogan, David Woodley, Ken Anderson, Ron Jaworski, Vince Ferragamo, Fran Tarkenton, Joe Kapp, Daryle Lamonica, Mark Brunell, Jake Plummer, Erik Kramer, Jay Schroeder, Wade Wilson, Dieter Brock, Jim Zorn, Danny White, Dan Fouts, Pat Haden, Bob Lee, James Harris, George Blanda, Bill Nelsen, Jack Kemp, Don Meredith, and Brock Purdy all agree with you.

That would be 52 of the 107 QBs who have seen an NFL championship game.

85% of all QBs who are given a franchise opportunity make it to the playoffs (6th round to undrafted get to the playoffs more [91%] than 1st round QBs [81%]). Then you have QBs who win playoff games and never get to a championship game. Then you have the championship QBs listed above who you have championed.

For those who take exception to history, there have been 42 QBs who have gone to a championship game since 2000. 14 are on the above list, and 11 of them went to the SB. 12 have been 1st round picks that went to the SB for the team that drafted them. In the last 10 seasons, there have been 17 QBs making it to that coveted championship game. 5 are on the above list, and 4 have been to the SB. Only 5 1st round picks have made it to the SB for the team that drafted them.

Don't look at the greater probability of success with the average Joe's. Don't factor in the 100% increase in 1st round QBs over the last 12 years (40 1st round QBs; 85 over first 44 seasons). Nothing to see there. They are not busts, they are just 1st round projects - 3rd time's a charm. Oversaturating the NFL with 1st round projects is in no way decreasing opportunities for the late round and undrafted QBs with a greater probability of getting a team to a SB (4 in 5 is definitely not better than 5 in 10).

Drafting a 1st round QB definitely has a clear advantage over those average Joe's. Those Joe's just can't keep up with those 1st round Joe's. We all will be happy trading up in the 1st round for that Joe Flacco or Joe Burrow instead of getting that Joe Montana and Jerry Rice, or that Joe Theismann and Art Monk.

And 1st round franchise picks have been the best for building a decade long dynasty. There's... Terry Bradshaw compared to Johnny Unitas, Bart Starr, Roger Staubach, Stabler/Plunkett, Montana/Young, Theismann/Williams/Rypien, and Brady. Ok, well 1st round picks have dominated the half decade dynasty with Bob Griese, Troy Aikman, Ben Roethlisberger and Patrick Mahomes. Decade long dynasties are overrated.

Let's trade 5 1st round picks to trade up for Bryce Young. Nothing else will give us a similar or better shot at winning a championship!!!

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15 hours ago, rayzor said:

You can never guarantee the success of any QB, which is why you should always chase after average Joe's and hasbeens and guys who have been in the league for years but never did much except as a backup.... because you can always stumble on a Tom Brady guy you draft late or  a Geno guy who does nothing for a decade then you find him sitting in your bench and turns out to be good. You find guys like that every year. They grow in trees.

But even if you can't get one, QB is no big deal. It's just another player on the team. Anyways if you get your defense right you don't have to worry about scoring.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just in case you are wondering, that was sarcasm.

What's sarcasm? 🤪

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4 hours ago, Mother Grabber said:

the best way to determine the success of a QB is to go forward in time at least 3 years and see what happened, then go back and pick the one that worked out. 

caveman smile GIF by Aardman Animations

While you're there, can you get me to next lottery numbers?

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