Restocking with just Pick #39?

[WestPanthers]

Nah.....Just use #33 & #39 to pick 2 first round grade playmakers. We desperate need talents for this rosters.

[jfra78]

I like having 2 picks in the top of the 2nd much better than having a bunch of 3s

[Shocker]

We need to pick the best offensive players available at those picks unless something wild is offered.  We need great players

[AU-panther]

19 minutes ago, Tbe said:

The odds of a 2nd rounder to develop into a starter is 33%. A high 2nd is more like 40%.

The odds of a 3rd drops to 16%.

The math doesn’t favor those trades.

Curious to know where you are getting those numbers from?  Have always been interested in the real numbers behind drafting. 

[SmokinwithWilly]

We have a lot of holes on the roster and the 2 positions that seem to have the most success in the 2nd are OL, specifically IOL, and LB. We've taken care of 2 of those IOL positions in FA with C still being a pressing need. BY, or whoever is passing the ball if we have a real competition in camp, needs someone to catch the damn ball. 

[mrcompletely11]

Last years trade for 33. 

The Titans also acquired the No. 81 pick in the deal, the teams announced. Arizona received the No. 41 and 72 picks in 2023 and a third-rounder in 2024.

 

Not sure if I would do that.  Might want a better 3rd pick

[Tbe]

3 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

Curious to know where you are getting those numbers from?  Have always been interested in the real numbers behind drafting. 

Some browns fan crunched the numbers on 20 years of draft data. NFL wide…not browns specific.

https://247sports.com/nfl/cleveland-browns/Board/105323/Contents/odds-of-becoming-a-quality-player-in-the-nfl-by-draft-round-211678773/#:~:text=1st round - about 50% of,3rd round - about 16%.

I’ve seen it broken down by position too. Some positions have higher success rates than others.

This is the only source I can find right now.

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

[pantherdad]

37 minutes ago, Tbe said:

1st round - about 50% of players drafted in the 1st round developed into solid NFL starters.

2nd round - about 33% of players drafted in the 2nd round developed into solid NFL starter. From here, it dropped by 50% per round.

3rd round - about 16%.

4th round - about 8%.

5th round - about 4-5%.

6th round - about 2%.

7th round - about 1-2%.

Tom Brady defied the odds lol

[Fright]

Nah trade all the bullshit picks 3rd round or lower for another 2nd or get into the 1st. Anyone after 2nd round for us is usually ass and doesn’t stay long.

[Jon Snow]

1 hour ago, chknwing said:

carolina doesnt draft well, they need more shots to try and hit on something

This is also true. 

[carpanfan96]

47 minutes ago, Tbe said:

Some browns fan crunched the numbers on 20 years of draft data. NFL wide…not browns specific.

https://247sports.com/nfl/cleveland-browns/Board/105323/Contents/odds-of-becoming-a-quality-player-in-the-nfl-by-draft-round-211678773/#:~:text=1st round - about 50% of,3rd round - about 16%.

I’ve seen it broken down by position too. Some positions have higher success rates than others.

This is the only source I can find right now.

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

Here’s a few more that have good information. 
 

https://www.dailynorseman.com/2017/4/12/15274148/most-nfl-draft-picks-are-busts
 

https://www.the33rdteam.com/the-hidden-reality-of-draft-value-part-1/
 

https://www.the33rdteam.com/assessing-first-round-hit-rate-at-every-nfl-position/

 

i had a few posts a few years back breaking it down in detail somewhere on the site. lol

[Jon Snow]

36 minutes ago, pantherdad said:

Tom Brady defied the odds lol

He sure as hell did. That my friend is called the luckiest pick off all time. 

[top dawg]

1 hour ago, Tbe said:

The odds of a 2nd rounder to develop into a starter is 33%. A high 2nd is more like 40%.

The odds of a 3rd drops to 16%.

The math doesn’t favor those trades.

Where are you getting this? I've looked over information that seems to be always dated (I guess because the sample rate has to be over time), and 33 percent seems extremely low from what I've read. 

[Carolina Cajun]

1 hour ago, chknwing said:

carolina doesnt draft well, they need more shots to try and hit on something

In fairness, Fitterer and Hurney dont draft well, gonna see what morgan does and hope its better than what weve had.  I think itll be fine as long as tepper keeps his dick fingers out of the situation.