Downfield Disparity

[Mr. Scot]

8 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

I am not going to "rank" those, because that's hours of work. I will do a little breakdown of those elements in the game stretches he is talking about and post it in a little bit.

Ranks aren't a big deal to me (like when we were supposedly the second best defense in the league under Phil Snow).

My eyes tell me the same story, though. Bryce looked better passing last year than he does now.

The question is why...

[Waldo]

1 hour ago, Mr. Scot said:

Injuries on the OL would be a likely factor (Hunt is sorely missed).

They've been decent for the most part (especially on the left) but last game everything broke down.

I'm not convinced Lewis is healthy either

[kungfoodude]

1 hour ago, Mr. Scot said:

Ranks aren't a big deal to me (like when we were supposedly the second best defense in the league under Phil Snow).

My eyes tell me the same story, though. Bryce looked better passing last year than he does now.

The question is why...

Well, I took a look at the Bryce "Eras" Tour and it seems like that it somewhat breaks down to.....well he just attempted more passes downfield.

Breaking it down like the author of the Twatter post did in the "This Season" chunk versus 2024 Weeks 8-18 and I also added "Rest of his Career" which is basically all of 2023 and the two games in 2024 prior to Benching. 

Initial Bryce(2023-Week 2 2024)

 Post Benching Bryce(Weeks 8-18 2024 AKA The Glory Games)

Modern Bryce(2025 Season)

 

If you look, during the "Glory Games" era of Bryce his 10+ downfield targets jumped from around 32% over his overall attempts to almost 43% of his overall attempts. Maybe it's as simple as that since he isn't testing them deep, they don't have to worry about him targeting them. 

 

It's an interesting look at the breakdown of those timelines.

[Khaki Lackey]

We're just setting up the league to open things up downfield. Don't worry, once opposing teams overload the box, out of desperation, BY9 will start throwing downfield again. Mind you, it takes Canales at least two games to make an adjustment, but when he does, Bryce will earn himself that extension.

[Bear Hands]

We lived in empty sets from the gun down the stretch.  You can only do that for so long.  You need to be able to add some dimensions to an offense.  If your QB limits your ability to do so, you've got the wrong guy under center.

 

[frankw]

The answer is simple and there for anyone who has actually been realistically assessing the situation from the jump.

So look you have to start at the beginning. Bryce Young in college made plays yes. But he also played for Alabama under the modern GOAT coach. And even there when they were destroying smaller schools ultimately Bryce Young did not establish a consistent and successful deep passing game. Between him Tua and Mac Jones he had a drastically inferior deep ball.

Fast forward to the NFL. He's had some nice throws here and there virtually all of them have been within the intermediate range. But he has not at any point showcased an ability to consistently go deep let alone become one of the better QB's at it which should be expected for his draft slot.

And even those games at the end of last year his best game was against Atlanta where he did most of his work with his legs and he actually had several rushing touchdowns in that stretch of games. All of which opened a door for me IMO to question the sustainability of it. We drafted him to be a passer. We need him to win as a passer and more often than not that is what is going to be required of him. Now here we are reaching the midway point of his third season and he is now at 39 or 40 games and there are people who supposedly have functioning brains that are acting as if Canales is the one intentionally eliminating half the field. Yes he deserves criticism for different things but come on. We said all these things about Frank Reich too. Once you get to coaching staff number two it's time to say okay if it looks like a duck quacks like a duck and walks like a duck. It's a motherfưcking duck alright?

The worst thing the Panthers staff and FO can do is continue going around like Helen fưcking Keller acting as if acknowledging the elephant in the room which is the reality that Bryce Young is not a franchise QB and not the answer and never will be will end in the universe swallowing itself and ending humanity.

Nut up swallow that lump in your throat and put one foot in front of the other.

Edited 1 hour ago by frankw

[OldhamA]

2 hours ago, PanthersNCSU said:

Ding ding ding. He either reads it late, doesn't trust himself to throw with anticipation, or flat out doesn't trust himself to throw the ball more than 10 yards downfield. At the end of the day, throw it up to TMac and let him draw a flag or make a play. I'd rather see a 20+ yard arm punt than being scared on 3rd down. 

Said it in one of the previous BY threads, but his "super power" of being a high processor, if true, is his biggest enemy IMO. He gets so far in his head he doesn't trust himself to just play. He played loose at the end of last year and the return was better. Now he's playing not to lose and is scared to death he's going to mess up...leading to messing up on top of his deficiencies already. 

He processes the game so slowly it's untrue. 

[OldhamA]

2 hours ago, Mr. Scot said:

Weird thing though is if you were running a typical WCO (for which Bryce is built) you could get away with a low moderate amount of downfield passing and still be effective with other types of throws which Bryce does well.

Didn't see that stuff last game...

 

You keep on throwing that phrase around.

Young is not built for the West Coast Offence. Nor is he built for Air Coryell.

At this point it's clear he's not built to play in the NFL. He has a noodle arm and can't see the immediate 15 yards behind the line of scrimmage in the middle of the field. 

[toldozer]

3 hours ago, Mr. Scot said:

Josh Norris compares the downfield passing game from last year's down the stretch run to this year's first ten games.

So if we were able to do it with some effectiveness last year, why are we not even trying to do it this year?

Where is the disconnect?

Because there is no expectations and when there are expectations Bryce is a pussy. Simple as that. Harsh but true

Edited 1 hour ago by toldozer

[Johnstonny]

Bryce doesn't trust himself to throw down field....doesn't trust receivers and are never open for whatever reason...so why risk a sure interception...

Edited 1 hour ago by Johnstonny

[Byrdman4real]

And who was the most productive WR catching long balls last year?

[CRA]

All this big time throw stuff and junk from last season always leaves out a very important fact about last season……

actual number of passes completed.  And it wasn’t good then.  Just like his rookie season before or this year. 

[electro's horse]

Josh Norris really needs to stop and consider what’s going on with his Big Time Throws stat that keeps making Bryce out to be better than he is.

like my brother in Christ watch the damn games 

[mav1234]

26 minutes ago, OldhamA said:

You keep on throwing that phrase around.

Young is not built for the West Coast Offence. Nor is he built for Air Coryell.

At this point it's clear he's not built to play in the NFL. He has a noodle arm and can't see the immediate 15 yards behind the line of scrimmage in the middle of the field. 

I feel like people assume risk-averse QBs with weak arms are great for a WCO...