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1 minute ago, Zod said:

Cam newton and Trey Lance have as much in common as Trey Lance and Will Grier. It isn't a good comparison. 

Just saying they were both a polarizing boom or bust prospect. Cam could have definitely been a bust if things broke differently. 

I wouldn’t pick Lance at 8 but the Panthers have gambled and won before. I’d rather have one of the more proven prospects. 

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18 minutes ago, Zod said:

Cam newton and Trey Lance have as much in common as Trey Lance and Will Grier. It isn't a good comparison. 

Yeah, a Trey Lance/Josh Allen comparison is probably more accurate.

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7 hours ago, DaveThePanther2008 said:

The attraction is valid.  The concerns are valid too.  This is where the Pro day and meetings will decide his fate with us.  I think he'll be available at 8 but if we don't do our homework on this guy we could be getting another bad egg.

I am glad we have the Senior Bowl to evaluate other QBs.  It might be better to gamble on a lower round QB that to try and strike it rich with a one year wonder.

One QB I could see us going after in the late rounds maybe even UDFA (due to an ACL tear in 2020) is Mike Penix Jr. from Indiana.   I saw him in a couple of games this year including against OSU and he looked dynamic.  

Below is a pretty good article on his prospect.   The writer addresses both good and bad points about him. One was his completion rate but the games I saw his receivers (outside Ty Fryfogie) consistently dropped perfectly thrown balls. 

2021 NFL Draft Player Profile – Michael Penix Jr. | Important Nonsense

Penix is going back to Indiana. 

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3 hours ago, Zod said:

What a huge risk with the 8th pick. High reward, but such a high risk. Better chance than not that he doesn't make it in the NFL. But if he does, could be a superstar. Does Tepper strike you as a gambler on a situation with that many variables?

 

3 hours ago, pantherj said:

If that's the case then I don't see us or anyone taking him in the top 10 imo.

 

3 hours ago, BrianS said:

I'd rather Trask or Jones in the second than Lance in the first.  Just think there is a greater chance of the skills translating.

I think a lot of fans don’t realize how high he is on some teams boards.  He isn’t the huge reach that a lot of people are making him out to be.

I would be shocked it both Jones and Trask were available with our second pick. Most likely neither will. 

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3 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

I would be shocked it both Jones and Trask were available with our second pick. Most likely neither will. 

It would be VERY surprising if six QB's were gone.  Since 1996, only two drafts have featured five QB's in round one - 1999 and 2018.  Only once since 1996 have four QB's been taken in the top 10.

From the 99 draft, of the five QB's selected, only two succeeded:  Culpepper and McNabb.  The other three, Couch, Smith and McCown were failures.

It's still a bit early to judge the 2018 draft, but it looks like Mayfield, Allen and Jackson are going to be successes while Darnold and Rosen trend down.

In years with four first round QB's since 1996, only twice (out of four years) have we seen 50% or more success in drafting.

I say that to simply point out the trend.  Even in years with perceived "very strong" QB classes, first round QB's still fail at nearly a 50% rate.  Like any other position on the field, reaching will come back to bite you.  Needing a QB is an issue for most teams.  Don't let that drive you to reach for one.  If you believe a guy is THE guy, then you absolutely take him at whatever pick you have.  If there are questions, don't let your need force you to reach.

 

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43 minutes ago, BrianS said:

It would be VERY surprising if six QB's were gone.  Since 1996, only two drafts have featured five QB's in round one - 1999 and 2018.  Only once since 1996 have four QB's been taken in the top 10.

From the 99 draft, of the five QB's selected, only two succeeded:  Culpepper and McNabb.  The other three, Couch, Smith and McCown were failures.

It's still a bit early to judge the 2018 draft, but it looks like Mayfield, Allen and Jackson are going to be successes while Darnold and Rosen trend down.

In years with four first round QB's since 1996, only twice (out of four years) have we seen 50% or more success in drafting.

I say that to simply point out the trend.  Even in years with perceived "very strong" QB classes, first round QB's still fail at nearly a 50% rate.  Like any other position on the field, reaching will come back to bite you.  Needing a QB is an issue for most teams.  Don't let that drive you to reach for one.  If you believe a guy is THE guy, then you absolutely take him at whatever pick you have.  If there are questions, don't let your need force you to reach.

 

Drafting a QB in the first round doesn't guarantee that QB will work out, but drafting him outside of the 1st round almost always guarantees he won't.

Everyone likes to to point out all of the first round QBs that don't work out, maybe it is 50% or 40% or 30%.  Go add up all of the QBs taken in the other rounds and tell me what percentage of those work out.

You can spend forever trying to hit on your 1/100 chance.

 

 

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7 hours ago, DaveThePanther2008 said:

What I definitely can see is for us to trade down and get an extra pick or two.

I actually am hoping that if all the QBs are gone we do trade down that way next year we can definitely trade up for our guy. 

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4 hours ago, BrianS said:

I'd rather Trask or Jones in the second than Lance in the first.  Just think there is a greater chance of the skills translating.

I like the thought of Jones in the second as well, but it's a huge gamble that he'd be there at 40. I'd be happy to trade back into the bottom of the 1st to grab him. Let's say WFT wants Lance so that Rivera can run him into the ground and cut his career in half. I've seen it happen, AND they will have a new GM looking to make his mark on the team. To jump 11 spots from 19 to 8, we could get their first, second and a 3rd (either this year or next). Jones at 19 doesn't leave such a bad taste in my mouth, grab a really good CB and OT in the second and 2 interior linemen in the 3rd. OHHHH WEEE, that's the makings of a damned fine team right there!

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